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Election 2004 pt. 2
5001. jexster - 4/16/2004 6:44:36 PMNow the US is strung out and hung out to dry
5002. jexster - 4/16/2004 11:19:53 PM
Welcome to the Watery Grave of the Good Ship Moron
Clarke and O'Neill TOLD THE TRUTH - Bush Lied, Thousands Died
That's Why the Nutters Don't Know Whether to Shit or Go Brown
Ace...take it from Dr. Poopstain...clean those foul bowels - take a dump.
WASHINGTON - Following an important meeting on Iraq (news - web sites) war planning in late 2001, President Bush (news - web sites) told the public that the discussions was about Afghanistan (news - web sites). He made no mention afterward about Iraq even though that was the real focus of the session at his ranch.
"I'm right now focused on the military operations in Afghanistan," Bush told reporters after talks on Dec. 28, 2001, with top aides and generals.
A "war update" was the White House description of the news conference Bush held with Gen. Tommy Franks, who was in charge of the Afghan war as head of U.S. Central Command.
Details of the meeting's focus on Iraq have since emerged in a recent speech by Franks, who now is retired, and in a new book by Washington Post reporter Bob Woodward.
The book says Franks summarized Afghan operations before turning to planning for war in Iraq — the point of the gathering.
In a Washington speech last month, Franks said he discussed with the president on that day the "growing storm" and the need to revise a long-standing military contingency plan for Iraq
Countless Thousands Died for Bush Approval Ratings
KISS MY FAGGOT ASS AL D....buy me dinner next time.
5003. OhioSTOPAS - 4/16/2004 11:57:04 PM
"WASHINGTON - Following an important meeting on Iraq (news - web sites) war planning in late 2001, President Bush (news - web sites) told the public that the discussions was about Afghanistan (news - web sites). He made no mention afterward about Iraq even though that was the real focus of the session at his ranch."
I've got no complaint with this kind of lie, concealing the real subject of a military contingency planning session. It's like Eisenhower and the U-2.
5004. OhioSTOPAS - 4/16/2004 11:57:42 PM
Toys.
And by the way, nice millennial!
5005. arkymalarky - 4/17/2004 12:16:13 AM
Now?
5006. anomie - 4/17/2004 12:54:33 AM
Hey Jex,
You in touch with WOW? We could use him about now.
5007. jexster - 4/17/2004 3:36:09 AM
No comment
5008. jexster - 4/17/2004 3:40:28 AM
You can read about it my new book!
Troddin Through Jamaica in the Arms of America!
What a sorry bunch of nitwits.
Right Ace?
Powell felt Cheney and his allies -- his chief aide, I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby; Deputy Defense Secretary Paul D. Wolfowitz; and Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Douglas J. Feith and what Powell called Feith's "Gestapo" office -- had established what amounted to a separate government. The vice president, for his part, believed Powell was mainly concerned with his own popularity and told friends at a dinner he hosted a year ago celebrating the outcome of the war that Powell was a problem and "always had major reservations about what we were trying to do."
Before the war with Iraq, Powell bluntly told Bush that if he sent U.S. troops there "you're going to be owning this place." Powell and his deputy and closest friend, Richard L. Armitage, used to refer to what they called "the Pottery Barn rule" on Iraq: "You break it, you own it," according to Woodward.
But, when asked personally by the president, Powell agreed to make the U.S. case against Hussein at the United Nations in February 2003, a presentation described by White House communications director Dan Bartlett as "the Powell buy-in." Bush wanted someone with Powell's credibility to present the evidence that Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction
5009. anomie - 4/17/2004 3:46:09 AM
Well, Jexter. Tell him that some of us lurkers miss him and hope he returns for the campaign.
It's our loss when he's not here.
5010. jexster - 4/17/2004 4:05:46 AM
done
5011. jexster - 4/17/2004 4:10:28 AM
Buffalo Soldier, Dreadlock Rasta
There was a Buffalo Soldier, In the heart of America
Stolen from Africa, brought to America
Fighting on arrival, fighting for survival....
In the arms of America
Trodding through Jamaica, a Buffalo Soldier
Fighting on arrival, fighting for survival
Buffalo Soldier, Dreadlock Rasta
5012. jexster - 4/17/2004 5:21:44 AM
April 16, 2004
New Lows in Support for Bush Policies on Iraq and the War on Terror
The really significant political development in the recent period is the undercutting of support for Bush's war in Iraq and for his handling of the war on terror. Here are some findings from recent polls that show just how seriously his standing in this area--once his ticket to sure re-election--has eroded.
The latest Annenberg Election Survey includes this question: "Has the war in Iraq reduced the risk of terrorism against the United States or increased the risk of terrorism against the United States?" Very straightforward. By about 2:1 (57-29), the public says the Iraq war has increased the risk of terrorism against the US. Wow.
The poll also asks another very straightforward question: "All in all, do you think the situation in Iraq was worth going to war over, or not?". Note that there's no specific mention in this question of the war's costs--casualties, money, etc.--which has tended to produce negative responses for quite a while (e.g., the CBS News question). But, even with no mention of costs, this question still returns a negative response: 51-43 saying the Iraq situation wasn't worth going to war about. That could represent some kind of a turning point in public evaluations of the Iraq war.
Another noteworthy recent finding comes from a recent Ipsos-AP poll. In that poll, Bush's approval rating on "handling the war on terrorism" clocks in at just 51 percent.
5013. jexster - 4/17/2004 5:23:35 AM
These new lows suggest just how difficult it may be for Bush to run--and win--as a "war president", as he likes to describe himself. And for further indications on this score, check out this excellent Los Angeles Times article on how reactions to the Iraq quagmire (if I may use that term) may sink his chances to carry Minnesota, very high on the Bush campaign's list of blue states they hope to pick off in November.
That from Ruy, vK further illustrates why I post 2 DiFi pics...to illustrate just that point!
Multi-media communication of razor sharp insight you do understand?
O vere beata nox!
5014. jexster - 4/17/2004 6:11:06 AM
Mr. Woodward, who is clearly channeling Mr. Powell, as he has done to present Mr. Powell's side of the story in past books, recreates his innermost thoughts: "He saw in Cheney a sad transformation. The cool operator from the first gulf war just would not let go. Cheney now had an unhealthy fixation. Nearly every conversation or reference came back to Al Qaeda and trying to nail the connection with Iraq. He would often have an obscure piece of intelligence. Powell thought that Cheney took intelligence and converted uncertainty and ambiguity into fact. It was about the worst charge that Powell could make about the vice president. But there it was."
But Mr. Powell shared his dread, Cassandra-like, with Mr. Woodward: "The more Powell dug, the more he realized that the human sources were few and far between on Iraq's W.M.D. It was not a pretty picture."
Bush lied...tens of thousands died..
Order of Pinnochio
Oak Leaf Clusters
5015. jexster - 4/17/2004 6:11:25 AM
Conclusion: A Self-Negating Belief System?
The pseudoconservative dogma is a grab-bag of popular delusions which seem almost anarchic in their contradictoriness. Anti-state rhetoric sits adjacent to authoritarian ukase, free market dogma jostles with corporate state plutocracy, and so on: religious devotion with militarist fervor, rugged individualism with leader worship, "family values" with plutocratic decadence, America first with global messianism.
How did it arise at the particular time and place as it did, and why has it metastasized after 11 September 2001?
Perhaps the myth of American exceptionalism, when combined with the semi-permanent military mobilization of the Cold War, provided a particularly fertile seed-bed for the syndrome. Given the concomitant decay of education and popular culture (5), it would seem that the only additional ingredient necessary was a healthy dose of fear. Nine-eleven provided that.
Pseudoconservatism's worship of force in human affairs is a particularly troubling and dangerous trait at this time, given that international terrorism has evolved into a self-organizing network that feeds off violence to gain more recruits. (6) For all his neurotic love of hierarchy and authoritarianism, the pseudoconservative has the potential to unleash the very chaos and anarchy he fears. We can only hope pseudoconservatism dies of its own contradictions before it consumes our peace of mind, our wallets, and our sons.
Dr. Werther
5016. jexster - 4/17/2004 5:09:11 PM
FINALLY!
John Kerry, Meet the Potato: "The internal war in this Administration over who gets what and over what is done is unlike anything I've seen in modern times."
5017. jexster - 4/17/2004 5:43:16 PM
Secret message to Anomie
"Smooch"
5018. jexster - 4/17/2004 5:50:45 PM
The contrast between Bush's fumbling, piss ignorance and Kerry on the Potato Hour could not be more clear.
Kerry: "I wish I had one of those buttons you have to put what YOU said up on the screen. In 1997 YOU said to President CLinton that SS would be bankrupt by 2001. Well it wasn't it was solvent and we had a lockbox that the Thief stole"
5019. OhioSTOPAS - 4/17/2004 6:03:25 PM
Bush Administration Bracing for Pre-Election Terror Attack
A terrorist attack between now and November would be the best thing that could happen for the Bush campaign. The campaign ads and talking points write themselves:
"Don't let the terrorists win - vote for Bush."
"Terrorists want John Kerry to be President."
5020. PelleNilsson - 4/17/2004 6:16:18 PM
But the attack in Msdrid swept the left to power.
5021. arkymalarky - 4/17/2004 6:22:15 PM
With the holes showing in their policies from the 9/11 commission, I don't think a successful terrorist attack would serve them well right now.
5022. jexster - 4/17/2004 6:30:46 PM
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs on Wolf The Woeful:
Confirms that Bush told PRINCE BANDAR of Saudi Arabia of the plan to make war on Iraq BEFORE HE TOLD POWELL!
5023. jexster - 4/17/2004 6:36:00 PM
Plan of Attack:Kerry Sharpens Criticism of Iraq Policy
Sunday, April 18, 2004; 11:42 AM
Democrat John Kerry on Sunday accused President Bush of a "stunningly ineffective" foreign policy and stuck by his argument that the war against terrorism isn't primarily a military struggle.
First we're gonna cut it off, then we're gonna kill it.
5024. jexster - 4/17/2004 11:07:06 PM
Kerry Sharpens Criticism of Iraq Policy
Democrat John Kerry on Sunday accused President Bush of a "stunningly ineffective" foreign policy and stuck by his argument that the war against terrorism isn't primarily a military struggle.
And he's right.
Richard Clarke says the same thing and so will the9/11 Commission.
That's why the Bushie don't know whether to shit or go brown.
That's why you don't see the D Boiz blatherin no mo.
Right Eddie?
5025. judithathome - 4/17/2004 11:21:19 PM
Jex, when will you give up this idea that Ed is ever going to post here again? Forget it.
5026. wonkers2 - 4/18/2004 1:22:47 AM
What happened to E D anyway. Did he leave in a fit of pique, or what? Evil character.
5027. jayackroyd - 4/18/2004 2:41:56 AM
He bailed because it was becoming too much of an addiction--not the mote, but the internet in general.
5028. jexster - 4/18/2004 4:27:39 AM
Que sera, sera JAH.
Now more important question...
How much does Bush get paid?
How much is the fair value of a puppet on the string of a demented cripple in an undisclosed location?
How do we get our money back?
5029. arkymalarky - 4/18/2004 4:43:19 AM
I want to see a major poll. The last one I saw was Newsweek.
5030. robertjayb - 4/18/2004 4:59:21 AM
The right hand does have trouble keeping up...
WASHINGTON — In the two years before the Sept. 11 attacks, the North American Aerospace Defense Command conducted exercises simulating what the White House says was unimaginable at the time: hijacked airliners used as weapons to crash into targets and cause mass casualties.
In a third scenario, the target was the Pentagon — but that drill was not run after Defense officials said it was unrealistic, NORAD and Defense officials say.
5031. jexster - 4/18/2004 5:00:23 AM
What gives Bush the authority to "free the world", the Constitution?
Not what but WHO Morley.
I am that I am.
Regards,
YHWH
5032. jexster - 4/18/2004 5:02:53 AM
His blood for Bandar's Oil
Name: Riayan A. Tejeda
Rank: Staff Sgt.
Branch of Service: Marine Corps
Age: 26
Hometown: New York
State: NY
Date of Death: 04/11/03
5033. jexster - 4/18/2004 5:19:35 AM
Speaking of junkies, obsessions, and mental health
...Arky you might wish to consult a qualified professional...may I suggest http://ace-o-spades.blogspot.com/?
This the latest major poll data:
Newsweek (4/8-4/9) 42% 46% 4% Kerry +4
ARG -----(4/6-4/9) 43% 48% 2% Kerry +5
5034. jexster - 4/18/2004 5:20:47 AM
and would you shoot me that PFAW stuff again? I did a majorly mad mailbox cleanup the other day and guess what?
I am scheduled to have dinner with a mutual friend of Ralph Neas on 5/1
5035. jexster - 4/18/2004 5:21:22 AM
I'll go over your email with her, before the first bottle of wine is done..I promise
5036. arkymalarky - 4/18/2004 7:24:16 AM
Hahaha! Thanks! I'll send it again tomorrow.
5037. wonkers2 - 4/18/2004 12:43:21 PM
Arky, Jex please try to stay on topic! The Mote Cafe is available for such trivialities.
5038. alistairConnor - 4/18/2004 12:50:02 PM
Nah Wonk, you've missed the context, that is in fact an important electoral issue they're discussing.
(Rats! Foiled!)
5039. Magoseph - 4/18/2004 12:59:30 PM
Good TV ad for Kerry.
5040. Magoseph - 4/18/2004 1:00:48 PM
Updated to November, of course.
5041. thoughtful - 4/18/2004 2:33:18 PM
Saw kerry on russert. While he faired well, i struggled to get past his face. He musta been so botoxed up that the only thing he could move were his lips and his eyelids. Further, he was so "tan" with makeup that his white ears didn't match his face color.
He kept saying he has a plan, but the only clear plan that came across was trash the admin at every turn.
Q. Sen. Kerry, what did you have for breakfast this a.m.?
A. Unlike the current administration, Tim....
5042. judithathome - 4/18/2004 5:05:43 PM
Thoughtful, you do realize that Kerry had no sayso about the makeup...he doesn't wear that stuff all the time. The show's makeup people are the ones who should be shot over that job.
As far as him using botox, I really don't care what his face looks like but obviously, others do. I'd much rather have a guy use botox but be able to speak intelligently than look like a good ole boy and talk like a hick.
5043. thoughtful - 4/18/2004 7:11:53 PM
Judithah, I agree about the importance of being able to express oneself verbally. The contrast with the current pres is stunning, especially since speaking is stock in trade for a politician...a core competence if you will.
However, the botox issue is a critical one as only a small percentage of communication is actually verbal. Much communication in terms of sincerity, honesty, believability, trustworthiness, etc. all come through with facial expressions. Look at the impact the famous w smirk had on his campaign and how hard his handlers tried to get him to stop smirking...and how telling it is that the smirk shows up when he's on the hook with no answer. Or consider the classic example of people listening to the nixon-jfk debate on the radio vs watching on TV...the listeners thought nixon won vs. the viewers who thought jfk won. Certainly gore's stiffness worked against him in his failed campaign, despite his many attempts to make fun of it and defuse it.
So in my view, certainly the presidential campaign shouldn't be a beauty contest, how a candidate carries and expresses himself is an important element. Using botox to paralyze one's face is, imo, telling that he's willing to sacrifice credibility for vanity. Not a good thing.
5044. marjoribanks - 4/18/2004 7:25:53 PM
I like Kerry's botox and orange tan, he looks very cute.
Used to be sallow and kind of stooping Musster-ish.
Now he's quite cuddly, and looks like a walking, lanky, day-glo-colored smiley.
Yep, quite fancy his makeover.
5045. marjoribanks - 4/18/2004 7:31:35 PM
He had to do it, Thoughtful.
Bush has an astonishingly detailed list of drawbacks, but on the plus side is that he looks pretty decent as a cowboy slash sheriff slash commonsense reg'lar guy.
Kerry, to put it mildly, looks like a blueblooded, patrician, escargot-eating, deeply snobbish, French-loving, elistist.
Of course, he happens to be all of those things which is why I've liked him from the start. But, very very sadly, those things are looked at as somehow negative when Yanks choose Presidents. Apparently (shudder) Yanks want to vote in a guy they'de be happy to slurp back budweisers with at the local bar.
Kerry can't be that guy, particularly. But he can be orange! And he can erase the lines on his face and solder on a permanent smile, so that at least the guys at the corner bar won't be intimidated too much.
5046. Absensia - 4/18/2004 7:52:56 PM
If we're going to get into looks, Bush looks like he uses extra shoulder pads, swaggers, and has put on weight, no doubt from eating at those pricey Texan restauants that the common man can't afford.
Yeah, Kerry needs a new makeup person, and I suspect, after this appearance he'll get one. But I hope people will start listening to him and stop looking at him. I think it's the "April frenzy." Both Bush and Kerry are worried about pulling ahead in the polls and Kerry is trying to deal with GOP created canards.
For instance, Rumors are flying about how his wife is in control of the Heinz corporation, responsible for decisions of out soucing, etc. None of it's true, of course. See Heinz Facts
5047. thoughtful - 4/18/2004 8:30:56 PM
Go to meet the press home page and see two shots of kerry...the difference is striking. Maybe it wasn't his shoulder he had worked on, but went to greta van susteren's plastic surgeon instead?
5048. jexster - 4/18/2004 8:53:04 PM
Secrets Exposed, Lies Revealed
Exposing previous White House denials as lies, journalist Bob Woodward this weekend revealed parts of his new book which provide evidence the Bush Administration began plans for an Iraq invasion immediately after 9/11; overhyped intelligence; and appeared to circumvent the Constitution to pursue its goals. In Woodward's account, which includes a three-and-a-half hour interview with President Bush, it is revealed that the President personally ordered plans for the Iraq war to be drawn up in November of 2001.
5049. jexster - 4/18/2004 8:53:13 PM
While the White House has called such statements "revisionist history," Woodward's account is consistent with accounts given by Richard Clarke, former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, former Bush State Department officialRichard Haass, former British Ambassador Christopher Meyer, and an earlier CBS News report. Woodward's book explores the depth of White House cover-up efforts, showing how the Administration persuaded even top military officials to lie. For instance, at the same time General Tommy Franks was secretly developing the President's Iraq war plan, he was "simultaneously publicly denying that he was ever asked to do any plan." For instance, at the same time General Tommy Franks was secretly developing the President's Iraq war plan, he was "publicly denying that he was ever been asked to do any plan." Just as troubling, Woodward points out that the decision to go to war with Iraq was shared with Saudi Prince Bandar (who has milked his ties to the Bush Administration despite being under the microscope for money laundering) and RNC consultant Karen Hughes before it was shared with Secretary of State Colin Powell.
5050. jexster - 4/18/2004 8:54:19 PM
Mags add that graph Krugman did as an entire column...
Bush job growth: Lies v. performance
5051. Magoseph - 4/18/2004 11:25:26 PM
We have a vice-president whose only support is from the whacko segment of the Bush base. This is reflected in his 28 per cent approval rating. I don't know how he describes himself but he certainly is not a compassionate conservative. After all, he did a job on the Halliburon retirees and was paid well by the company for that swindle. He certainly isn't a warrior as he sought and fought for several consecutive deferments to avoid service in Vietnam. He certainly isn't a war planner as evidenced by the present disaster in Iraq which he has presided over. Then what is he to be described as? I think an apt description would be as leader of the Radical wing of the Republican party.
I have another question to pose. What percentage of the American electorate could tolerate this individual as President of the United States for four years? The point is that as low as the probability is, something could happen to George Bush and it could happen through accident, disease, or assassination. This man Cheney, if the Bush ticket is re-elected, stands one heart-beat away from the presidency.
I just wonder in view of Bush's lust for the presidency whether Cheney will develop a medical problem in the not too distant future and will be replaced by an Hispanic.
5052. jexster - 4/18/2004 11:30:53 PM
Caught Red Handed: Saudis Say They Won't Use Oil Prices to Help Bush
5053. jexster - 4/18/2004 11:31:34 PM
Shut your mouth Mago...Bush spies maybe about.
5054. Magoseph - 4/18/2004 11:36:10 PM
I'm a clean-liver and I have a clean past, Jex. Of course, with this crowd, that might not help me.
5055. wonkers2 - 4/18/2004 11:36:43 PM
I agree, Mago. Cheney is toast. Bush may well be also. McCain would be a much stronger GOP candidate.
5056. judithathome - 4/18/2004 11:41:59 PM
Saudi Arabia said Monday it will not use oil prices to try to sway the U.S. presidential election, denying an allegation that the kingdom would cut petroleum prices before November to boost President Bush's re-election bid
We all know how honest and forthright these people are, too. I'm so relieved.
5057. jexster - 4/19/2004 12:17:40 AM
I don't see this Cheney toast thing frankly. Yes he will be a major liability in this campaign but after what Woodward and O'Neill have confirmed about how this Regime works (or doesn't) and why, the question:
When was the last time the organ grinder's monkey fired his organ grinder?
5058. marjoribanks - 4/19/2004 12:20:17 AM
I'm with Jexster
How could Bush fire Cheney? The very idea is absurd, the bad bad man in VP clothing supllies most of the brain and all the balls for Dubya. Bush Jr. owes him, big time.
5059. jexster - 4/19/2004 12:21:12 AM
Remember Cheney chose himself as VP...
And while asking questions...
According to one expert ""since March 4 — just after Kerry in effect wrapped up his party's nomination — Bush has bought about as much television advertising as past presidential candidates purchased for the entire general election campaign."
So the question What does $50 Million buy these days?
5060. judithathome - 4/19/2004 2:10:36 AM
Anderson Cooper just did a video comparison of Bush's hair from last week and then today: he's dying his hair. It is decidedly "browner" today than in the video from last week. This can mean only one of two things. He is vain and trying to look younger, a la Kerry and his botox, or he is so full of shit it is altering his hair follicles.
5061. OhioSTOPAS - 4/19/2004 2:11:36 AM
It can't be both?
5062. jayackroyd - 4/19/2004 2:17:22 AM
Yeah, I saw that. It was not at home; there was a tv showing cnn at the take out place. His hair was shorter, but noticeably browner. Fascinating.
5063. judithathome - 4/19/2004 2:17:26 AM
Well, it can in my book but I don't like the guy so I'm naturally biased. (and my hair color is natural, too...grey streaks and all)
5064. judithathome - 4/19/2004 2:18:10 AM
Those weren't my tags left open, by the by.
5065. OhioSTOPAS - 4/19/2004 2:44:15 AM
According to author Ron Suskind, President Bush gets press conference questions in advance:
"For each press conference, the White House press secretary asks the reporters for their questions, selects six or seven of the questions to answer and those reporters are the only ones called upon to ask their questions during the press conference, Suskind said.
"This system makes it so that the president has answers already prepared for questions that he knows will be asked, Suskind said."
I'd like to have this confirmed by an actual White House correspondent before I believe it. But it would explain why several reporters asked basically the same question ("What mistakes do you think you made in connection with 9/11?" and variants thereof); if each said that was the question he/she was going to ask, and if he/she ever wanted to be called on again, they went ahead and asked it. And it is clear that the White House has a preselected list of at least some of the reporters who are called upon.
On the other hand, if the White House had foreknowledge of the questions, surely even a dimwit like Bush could have been coached to answer them better.
5066. Absensia - 4/19/2004 2:56:35 AM
Hah! I agree, Ohio, but maybe Bush thinks his answers are brilliant as is. I'd like more confirmation too. I'd hate to think the press corps would go along with such a practice but I have read about certain reporters being totally ignored because they put Bush on the spot in previous news conferences. I think I'd be tempted to change my question once I'd been chosen but that would guarantee being excilled to Siberia press hell.
As far as Bush coloring his hair, I don't care, although it's funny. I saw him on tv today and swear his tailor messed up. His right shoulder was lower than his left one. It's all petty, but more refreshing than listening to the junk that pours out of his mouth.
Unfortunately, we have to live with his policies, errors and ommissions, mistakes and disasters, unless, imo, Kerry, botox or not, wins the election.
5067. marjoribanks - 4/19/2004 3:04:37 AM
Who is surprised?
Bush read from a list of names at the last press conference, bristled when he got a question he was unprepared for, bristled even more noticeably when a reporter didn't take his prepared answer seriously and actually stated out loud that he wished he could have had the 'mistake' question in advance.
5068. arkymalarky - 4/19/2004 3:11:01 AM
An Arkansas Poll
What's striking are the voting age groups.
5069. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 4/19/2004 4:06:50 AM
5070. jexster - 4/19/2004 8:04:59 AM
Read the Daily WH Gaggle of Bullshit and judge for yourselves whether American Blood is being sacrificed for Bandar Oil and Bush's election.
5071. jexster - 4/19/2004 8:05:43 AM
Can't resist a smooch can ya Wiz?
Sheeeet I bet even GWB could buy you off ;)
5072. alistairConnor - 4/19/2004 9:24:28 AM
Arky, why the support for Bush among the young? Are they buying the bullshit? Naive patriotism?
5073. jayackroyd - 4/19/2004 11:05:03 AM
IMO, the young buy into the achievement memes of the republicans. They've worked very hard to get into college, been drilled with the idea that success is tied to effort. They infer from that they would prefer a government that does not deprive them of the fruits of their effort.
This may actually be a flipside generation. The usual pattern is that you start off committed to liberal ideals, and then as you accumulate experience (and money), you move to the right. In the case of this generation, the ideal is meritocracy, and the rewards that come from diligence.
When they discover that it doesn't really work that way (although it doesn't entirely not work that way), they may move to the left.
5074. wonkers2 - 4/19/2004 12:28:38 PM
One thing that young people are extremely skeptical of, in contrast to their elders, is Social Security. They have bought into GOP privatization propaganda.
5075. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 4/19/2004 1:55:48 PM
Old age and death are just rumors to the young. Repug's under-the-radar appeal to petty resentments and The Club For Greed will always hold sway with weak-minded adolescents of every age group.
5076. Macnas - 4/19/2004 2:04:21 PM
These days, on the radio especially, we are told that our pension funds are not going to see us retire in the style we might have expected, the government is urging people to look at their retirement schemes and check that the figures add up. There are new state sponsored pension schemes for those who would not ordinarily get a scheme as part of their employment.
What is the situation in the U.S. in this regard?
5077. thoughtful - 4/19/2004 2:30:02 PM
I'm not sure what you all are talking about re Bush's approval ratings, but according to the latest gallup poll:
Despite a spate of high-profile political events in the past week and a half -- President George W. Bush's nationally televised press conference, national security adviser Condoleezza Rice's testimony before the 9/11 commission, and media appearances by Richard Clarke, the author of a new book criticizing the Bush administration for its handling of the war on terrorism -- a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey finds little change in the presidential contest. Among likely voters, Bush continues to enjoy a slight lead over Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, as he has since the end of March. Also, Bush's job approval rating as well as the favorable ratings of both Bush and Kerry are all essentially the same as they were three weeks ago.
The poll, conducted April 16-18, shows Bush leading Kerry among likely voters, 51% to 46%. In an April 5-8 poll, Bush's lead was three points, while he had a four-point lead in a March 26-28 poll. In the past three weeks, the figures have fluctuated within a small range, suggesting no real change in the preferences of American voters over that time.
Add Nader to the mix and bush is leading. Not that I understand why, but there it is. Of course, Bush has been spending a lot on advertising and it seems as if kerry may be hoarding his cash for later in the race, so it may make sense at this point.
But russert on imus this a.m. made the point that only 18 states are up in the air at this point and of those only about 10% of voters in each state are undecided so the results rest in the hands of very few people...and much can happen between now and nov. to help them decide including the economy, gas prices, terrorism, scandal, etc.
5078. jayackroyd - 4/19/2004 2:46:37 PM
What is the situation in the U.S. in this regard?
Controversial. The standard line is that once the boomer generation starts hitting the pension system in large numbers, the current pay as you go plan is certain to fail. The government, under this line, should be building up surpluses to be used to cover the costs when the pig hits that particular point in the python. There is much handwringing among the purveyors of this line over the huge Bush deficit. It is doing the opposite of accumulating surplus to handle the surge in retirees.
Bush has proposed a privatization scheme, which gives some people (over some age) their current benefits, and converts people under that age to a privitization scheme. That's a non-starter. The people who are in the transitional years in the privatization scheme are going to have to provide the money for the people who retained their benefits, and for themselves.
The trouble with all these things is that if you just jiggle the growth numbers a little (or the immigration numbers), you change the picture.
What will happen, imo, is a repeat of the 1986 reforms. Retirement ages will be raised again (In 1985, my full benefit retirement age was 65. Now it's 67 and five months.) Right now the payroll tax is applied to a capped earning level for SS, while the Medicare portion is uncapped. The 86 reforms raised the SS cap year by year. The next reform will drop the cap entirely. Also, the cost of living adjustment will be reduced, by using a different index.
5079. Macnas - 4/19/2004 2:53:37 PM
Figure juggling.
Thanks jay.
5080. jayackroyd - 4/19/2004 2:53:44 PM
There's a bigger problem with Medicare, which reflects the general problems with health care provision in the US. Incredibly expensive procedures, like heart transplants, can save lives, but make the system very expensive. The drug companies have been successful developing compounds that are both very expensive and are taken every day for the rest of your life. When someone lives or dies in old age is increasingly a matter of choice--trading off quality of life for life itself. Keeping people who are on the brink of death alive is very expensive.
Some cost reduction measures are also good health care measures, like reducing the time in hospital. But there aren't many of those available. Currently, the government sets reimbursement rates for Medicare procedures, and there is no copay. So there is an incentive for patients to seek excessive treatment. The reimbursement rates are too low to maintain doctors at their preferred lifestyles, so other patients pay higher rates for procedures. And woe to ye who has no insurance. If you have to see a doctor, you pay the full bore price that the the doc can't get from an HMO, Medicaid, or Medicare.
All this stuff makes Medicare a ticking bomb. The only long term solution is some kind of socialized medicine, either through compulsory insurance or some kind of single payer plan. Industry, especially rust belt industry, is increasingly realizing this.
5081. thoughtful - 4/19/2004 2:56:25 PM
In terms of pension, the situation is grim. Not only are there fewer workers covered by pensions through their employers but there has also been a dramatic shift in the nature of those pensions, from defined benefits (you are guaranteed a certain payout upon retirement and the company bears the risk of making that happen) to defined contribution (you make a fixed payment in and the amount you receive is based on how well your investments have done over that time.)
Further US savings rates are very low (2% or less) and US debt burdens are at or near record highs so very little is being done on a personal level to pay for retirement for most workers.
This is not a good situation.
That's why a fixed benefit plan like social security is so important and it is NOT in crisis. Currently it is running a surplus and the Ball Commission years ago came up with a few tweeks to the system that would easily keep it funded through 2075. It doesn't need breaking to "fix" it, but this admin seems hell-bent on doing so.
5082. jayackroyd - 4/19/2004 2:57:09 PM
Or there's just the more mundane things that people take for granted now, like kidney dialysis. My father goes to a clinic three times a week, where a couple dozen people spend half a day three times a weeek getting the toxins taken out of their blood. It's a small, cramped place with underpaid staffers, but it is still damned expensive. He'll be doing this for the rest of his life.
5083. jayackroyd - 4/19/2004 3:02:10 PM
That's why a fixed benefit plan like social security is so important and it is NOT in crisis. Currently it is running a surplus and the Ball Commission years ago came up with a few tweeks to the system that would easily keep it funded through 2075.
As I said, macnas, this is controversial. The tweaks thoughtful is talking about are like the ones I mentioned. There's certainly an argument independent of the purely financial for raising the retirement age. People do live longer than they did when the system was created, and they are more active. Overall, of course. If you get that stroke at 62, and can't retire or get medicare until 70, you're in trouble.
5084. Macnas - 4/19/2004 3:08:36 PM
It's not a problem particular to the U.S., the same basic problems exist for us too.
It always seems to be that a state/government, will do anything and everything other than pony up, regardless of whether it can afford it or not. It would seem to me to be a big voter concern, what with the older population rising, and being the portion of the population most likely to vote.
5085. jayackroyd - 4/19/2004 3:38:53 PM
The seeds were sown at the outset. Benefits were not closely enough related to contributions to provide an actuarily sound system.
I've read that Japan is in particularly bad shape in this regard.
5086. thoughtful - 4/19/2004 3:52:29 PM
Well, a lot of it is just the nature of the system. The working population foots the bill for the retired population works fine especially when the working population is larger than the retired one. When the reverse is true, it gets very very difficult.
In terms of the tweaks, one not mentioned but one that was critical to the ball commission results was including govt workers in soc sec. Currently while they work for the gov they are not included, retire from gov after 20 years with full pension then work a few years as private employees to receive full soc sec benefits...double dipping. If they are included in soc sec from the beginning, they'd pay in for much longer periods of time which would add solvency.
5087. Magoseph - 4/19/2004 4:08:15 PM
thoughtful: Add Nader to the mix and bush is leading. Not that I understand why, but there it is.
A number of historical election commentators have noted that when the government comes under pressure from foreigners, there's a rally around the flag reaction. This could be a factor, who knows? There has been some speculation that the Nader run will be used by Nader to extract commitments from Kerry and then he drops out and endorses the Democratic ticket. There's another theory being floated that the Nader poll number reflects people unwilling to be on record opposing Bush. They believe a fear factor has developed in respect to elements within the Bush strike force which could affect them, their jobs or their businesses.
5088. alistairConnor - 4/19/2004 4:28:27 PM
The government, under this line, should be building up surpluses to be used to cover the costs when the pig hits that particular point in the python.
Perhaps I'm just naive, but I have a problem with the idea that a whole nation (in fact, practically the whole of the OECD countries) can just put money in the bank, then spend it in twenty years time. On an individual level, that works fine; but as a collective strategy? The macroeconomic implications are surely non-trivial. It looks like voodoo economics to me.
The aggregate standard of living is function of the production of goods and services. Either there will be less production when the boomers all retire, in which case, we will inevitably be poorer; or the same quantity will be produced, by fewer workers.
If equivalent quantities of goods and services are produced by fewer workers, but those workers do not get a correspondingly increased share of wealth (as we currently observe), that means that capital is increasing its share of wealth over labour, and it means that those workers will be ill disposed to increasing their contributions to funding the retirement of their elders.
The logical solution, therefore, to funding retirement, is to tax profits.
5089. Macnas - 4/19/2004 4:36:04 PM
Oh now you've said it.
5090. jayackroyd - 4/19/2004 4:46:26 PM
The macroeconomic implications are surely non-trivial. It looks like voodoo economics to me.
In practical terms, in the US, what it meant was simply retiring debt, in order to be able to incur it again when the boomers hit. There would have been a virtuous cycle involved as well--reducing debt reduces interest payments which in turn speeds debt reduction.
If equivalent quantities of goods and services are produced by fewer workers, but those workers do not get a correspondingly increased share of wealth
Do you mean "wealth"? Or "income"?
5091. jexster - 4/19/2004 4:49:25 PM
Brings tears to the eyes of ALL REAL ameriKans
"Hold it! Hold it!" Adelman interjected. "Let's talk about this Gulf war. It's so wonderful to celebrate." He said he was just an outside adviser, someone who turned up the pressure in the public forum. "It's so easy for me to write an article saying, 'Do this.' It's much tougher for Paul to advocate it. Paul and Scooter, you give advice inside and the president listens. Dick, your advice is the most important, the Cadillac. It's much more serious for you to advocate it. But in the end, all of what we said was still only advice. The president is the one who had to decide. I have been blown away by how determined he is." The war has been awesome, Adelman said.
"So I just want to make a toast, without getting too cheesy. To the president of the United States."
They all raised their glasses. Hear! Hear!
5092. jexster - 4/19/2004 4:50:24 PM
I am about to cry..think I should go to the shut ins at the Perfect World Rest-from-Jex Home and say
I LOVE YOU
5093. jexster - 4/19/2004 4:50:25 PM
I am about to cry..think I should go to the shut ins at the Perfect World Rest-from-Jex Home and say
I LOVE YOU
5094. jexster - 4/19/2004 4:50:56 PM
sorry toys..overcome
5095. jexster - 4/19/2004 4:52:58 PM
"People say, how can I help this war on terror? How can I fight EVIL? You can do so by mentoring a child; by going to a shut in and say 'I love you' " George of the Talking Bass
5096. jayackroyd - 4/19/2004 5:06:13 PM
Aha. A teaching moment.
Jex, We had an interesting discussion going, admittedly off topic. You've just jumped in with five posts, the entire substance of which is an excerpt from the Woodward book. You don't mention that it's a WaPo excerpt from the Woodward book.
Not only have you not discussed anything, but you've put a buncha junk in the middle of an ongoing discussion. Much more of that, and the people who have been talking about an issue are going to lose the thread.
5097. wonkers2 - 4/19/2004 5:07:27 PM
I think you are correct. I've had similar thoughts about the effect of a growing number of retirees relative to workers and concluded there are only two possible sources of support for the retirees--increasing productivity, as you said, and savings and investment in other countries--drawing on (exploiting?) the production of workers in other countries. Another factor that has been helping in industrialized countries is the entry of more women into the workforce outside the home. But that has pretty well maxed out. Also, the younger end of the population can be augmented by opening the country to more imigrants.
Otherwise, putting money away in government bonds or even equities doesn't solve the problem of the shrinking proportion of active workers in the population. Seems to me investing the money in government bonds or in the equities of U.S. companies would merely transfer income from one sector of the population to another without increasing the overall output sufficiently to provide for the retirees?? On the other hand, increasing the savings and investment rate does help improve productivity.
5098. wonkers2 - 4/19/2004 5:08:26 PM
My post was belatedly addressed to Alistair's #5088.
5099. jexster - 4/19/2004 5:13:57 PM
Least its on topic...off topic posts should go to the Mote Cafe don't you think or perhaps AP or perhaps terrorism or fuck do you think I give a flyin fuck Jay?
Do you?
This is on topic...
Rove argued that the politics of the Cheney-is-in-charge thesis worked in their favor. First, anyone who believed that was long lost to them anyway. Second, Rove wanted them to keep talking about it, throw the campaign into that briar patch. He believed the ordinary person wouldn't buy it. Here 67 percent were saying Bush was a strong leader and that included a third of the people who disapproved of his performance in office. A strong leader would not kowtow to his vice president, and Bush did not look meek in public.
Discuss.
5100. jayackroyd - 4/19/2004 5:15:39 PM
5097
Actually paying down debt with payroll tax receipts reduces the transfer of taxpayer dollars to rich people (and, these days, foreigners) who hold the debt.
The division of gains from productivity between worker and capitalist is a fluctuating thing. Right now, capitalists are in the driver's seat. And as long as Americans want their 79 dollar dvd players there they will stay.
5101. jexster - 4/19/2004 5:15:47 PM
Cheney-is-in-charge thesis...
And thanks EVER SO for telling us all what we already knew...
The quote is from today's installment in the Post and the political significance of the Cheney-is-in-charge thesis is Jay?
5102. jexster - 4/19/2004 5:16:18 PM
Slow thread?
5103. jayackroyd - 4/19/2004 5:18:48 PM
Jexster is right. Any further discussion of this topic, from me anyway, will take place in the slow thread.
No, jex, you're missing the point. YOU discuss. What do YOU find interesting about that quotation? Do you think things have changed that affect Bush's chances of re-election--that is, the charge may have been harmless then, but is not harmless now? (Where did the quote come from, by the way?)
5104. jexster - 4/19/2004 5:20:21 PM
No Jay..I won't do ALL the thinking for you...been there, done that.
Connect the dots...you can do it ...just gotta believe in yourself
5105. jayackroyd - 4/19/2004 5:20:39 PM
Then, see, people can respond to your opinion, noting nuances you may have missed, pointing to countervailing evidence and so forth. Then we all have a richer understanding of the issue you've raised. But posting a quotation raises no issue, and starts no discussion.
5106. jayackroyd - 4/19/2004 5:21:33 PM
[dismounting Rosinante]
5107. wonkers2 - 4/19/2004 5:22:05 PM
Further, why should healthy workers expect to retire at age 60 or 65 and be supported by the active workforce for 30 years? As life expectancy and health improve people should be expected to retire later and work longer. Moreover, more years spent in school has been reducing the number of productive years. Retirement is a relatively new concept (since the industrial revolution)--farmers used to continue to work until they died--which is still evolving. Encouraging or enabling early retirement is not good public policy. People should be encouraged to work as long as they can in their original occupation and/or move on to a second or third phase of their working life. That makes economic sense and contributes to the physical and mental health of the population.
5108. jexster - 4/19/2004 5:22:28 PM
I am here with the #1 Election 2004 topic of the day...I don't give a fig where you talk macroeconomics 101...do in Escapes for all I care or here...
Jump my ass?
You can jump up mine sideways.
Am I clear?
5109. alistairConnor - 4/19/2004 5:23:12 PM
Call it "income" if you like. The larger point being the mechanisms for distributing wealth.
5110. wonkers2 - 4/19/2004 5:24:30 PM
Rocinante, I believe.
5111. jayackroyd - 4/19/2004 5:31:08 PM
I cut and pasted from a search result. I guess you can't trust the web. I've posted a copy of your and AListair's message and a response in the slow thread.
5112. jexster - 4/19/2004 5:42:45 PM
Now what do you think about the Blood for Bandar thing?
I think its true. I think Powell is a snake and he pumped Woodward with it. I think its a great issue for Kerry. I think it opens the door to a hornet's nest of problems for Bush from the relations between the Royal Family of Texas and the House of Saud to the Great OBL Family escape.
Number of participants: At least three
What players will need: Oodles of laughter
Length of time: Five minutes to forever
Rules of the game: It seems ironic that a song that was originally about victims of the bubonic plague has turned into a fun game for young children. But whatever its origins, Ring Around the Rosey is an all-time favorite among young kids. To play, children join hands and walk or run in a circle singing:
Ring around the rosey
A pocket full of posies
Ashes, ashes,
We all fall down.
After singing the last line, "We all fall down," children collapse on the floor. Then they get up and begin the song all over again. There are no winners or losers in this game; it ends when the kids get tired of playing it.
5113. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 4/19/2004 5:49:17 PM
On NPR this morning they had a piece on John Kerry speaking to a retiree, a LOL(little old lady),and she said (paraphrasing) that she has worked all her life and she didn't want to work any more--she just wanted to enjoy a couple of years in retirement before she died. No actions by BushCo will keep this poor woman from some lousy menial low-paying job. This is the reality for countless so called retirees across the land.
Presently in my watercolor class at a community college, I have an eighty two year old widow who gets paid minimum wage to help a paraplegic student. I'm not saying it's wrong for people who want to work but I'm talking about the people who are forced to work regardless of their situation.
Fuck The Club For Greed and all the weasels and worms who exploit them!
And those aren't windmills out there, they're oil wells!
5114. marjoribanks - 4/19/2004 6:53:09 PM
I think its a great issue for Kerry. I think it opens the door to a hornet's nest of problems for Bush from the relations between the Royal Family of Texas and the House of Saud to the Great OBL Family escape.
I also think it's true, but it' unclear what game the Saudis are playing.
Yes, Bandar is practically Bush I's half-caste son, but the Saudis cannot be happy with the endless neocon rhetoric about them, their state, their "way of life". As I recall, that nincompoop Woolsey threatened them openly.
So, one can't bet against a doublecross.
5115. marjoribanks - 4/19/2004 6:53:41 PM
Welcome back, Wizardo.
5116. Absensia - 4/19/2004 7:03:10 PM
Wiz, it's happening all over. At my local grocery store a 70 year old lady bags my groceries and offers to take them out to my car for me. At another grocery store, their "box boy" is an elderly gentleman. I've gotten to know them both. They are working only to make ends meet, not too keep busy.
5117. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 4/19/2004 7:07:45 PM
Thanks, marj. The Chene-Bushian propensity for back room oil deals is where I'll place my bet--it's a form of Reagan's behind-the-scenes arms-for-hostages kind of ploy to win the election--only Kerry isn't as naive as Carter--I hope!
5118. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 4/19/2004 7:09:32 PM
The effects of Repuggery are everywhere, Abs; it's shameful.
5119. KuligintheHooligan - 4/19/2004 7:26:39 PM
"Presently in my watercolor class at a community college, I have an eighty two year old widow who gets paid minimum wage to help a paraplegic student. I'm not saying it's wrong for people who want to work but I'm talking about the people who are forced to work regardless of their situation."
Stories such as these can indeed be heartwrenching. However, almost always they are taken entirely out of context.
What has this person done with the money he/she earned up to this point in time? Did he/she waste it frivolously in the early years, and now is bitching and moaning about the government not doing enough? Is the current "poverty" a result of their past stupidity and foolishness when it came to their money? I mean, honestly, how many people do you know who waste hundreds of dollars a year on lottery cards and other forms of gambling, yet complain that they don't have enough money to make ends meet?
Again, I'm not asking specifically about WoW's widow, but more general questions. Often, people look for the government to make up for the mistakes these people have made. So many people waste so much money, and then are so quick to look to blame others when they don't have enough.
5120. KuligintheHooligan - 4/19/2004 7:28:10 PM
And by the way, I'm not speaking from a position of being rich or well off. My current salary is below the poverty level.
5121. robertjayb - 4/19/2004 7:29:12 PM
Yesterday in Sam's Club one of their sample servers was a
woman pushing eighty and using a walker to stand and deliver her wares...some kind of pizza snack.
Made me sad.
Better than sitting on a grimy sidewalk selling matchbooks, but I fesr it shows where we're headed.
5122. robertjayb - 4/19/2004 7:31:01 PM
fear
5123. jayackroyd - 4/19/2004 7:50:31 PM
5119
It is certainly true that people should take charge of their retirement, should save for it, and so forth.
But it is also true that people have been led by the government (and, for that matter, AARP) to believe that they would be able to retire. And it is also true that the pension systems that were in place for my grandparents' generation are no longer in force to the same degree as my parents' and is disappearing in my generation.
And, btw, who sells those lottery tickets? Who runs commercials promoting those lottery tickets as a way to get rich?
5124. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 4/19/2004 7:56:29 PM
Stories such as these can indeed be heartwrenching. However, almost always they are taken entirely out of context.
Only heart wrenching if you acknowledge having that organ. I can't abide the so called tough-minded "love" that is really exploitation disguised as "compassionate conservatism"
The "context" is that her husband died fairly young and she spent her time bringing up kids (who eventually moved away), that is when people could stay home and bring up kids.
At least this woman is ambulatory and able to work, but she is one of hundreds of thousands whom this culture deems roadkill by virtue of its predatory behaviors.
Hey, you're an ignorant retired janitor and you lost your house because we rewrote the regulations for the loan industry? Tough, Dummy--this is the new United Corporations of Amerika.
I wonder when retarded people will be indentured to pay off there parasitical drain on our economy?
5125. jayackroyd - 4/19/2004 8:03:38 PM
You know, wiz, if those folks would stop voting republican, they might have a shot at those some reform.
5126. Absensia - 4/19/2004 8:08:33 PM
Not all of the elderly had pensions to run through, gambling, buying lottery tickets, going on luxurious cruises and the like. Many worked in jobs that had few if any bennies and struggled to just to make it. They may have used their scant savings to help put their kids through college, and all the while, watched inflation take away the value of their dollars. They worked hard and thought social security benefits, that they paid into each month, would support them in their old age.
The husband may have had a minimal insurance policy. It may have been a traditional marriage with the wife staying at home. The bread winner may have been laid off, had a devestating injury, or one of them suffered from a horrid illness, all of which could have easily eaten all their salaries. There are many things that could have happened.
But maybe they did handle their money foolishly. So what? Should they now kill themselves and not be a blight on society because they are old and can't entirely support themselves? Do we, as a society, say "tough, you blew it and now you get what you deserve"?
It isn't a question of blame. It's a question of how do we treat our elderly who now are often infirm and often can barely scrape by and are far below the published poverty level.
5127. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 4/19/2004 8:22:17 PM
You know, wiz, if those folks would stop voting republican, they might have a shot at those some reform.
If I point to the moon, don't dwell on my finger. It isn't about voting, it's about misrepresentation, exploitation and allowing the shell game we call politics to deceive good people under the guise of "Buyer beware!"
The regulatory function of good government has been rigged by the weasel-class and the issues are, unfortunately, about Kerry's secret botox injections vs. Condi's clandestine husband.
Our fundamental structures are eroding and we are chasing a bunch of paranoid's delusions of power and security.
5128. jayackroyd - 4/19/2004 8:24:00 PM
It isn't about voting, it's about misrepresentation, exploitation and allowing the shell game we call politics to deceive good people under the guise of "Buyer beware!"
Well, it is about voting, but I agree that the problems lie in politics--and, frankly, the congression democratic delegation are as much to blame as anybody.
5129. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 4/19/2004 8:30:41 PM
Yes, of course, but the voter is now more of an ill-prepared consumer who's too busy, overworked or lazy to read Consumer Reports.
5130. jayackroyd - 4/19/2004 8:34:07 PM
So aren't they getting the government they deserve?
5131. jexster - 4/19/2004 8:34:42 PM
(April 20, 2004 -- 11:20 AM EDT)
There's a lot of hand-wringing from Democrats and a lot of satisfaction from Republicans over the two new polls out this morning showing a small, but measurable lead for the president over John Kerry.
...
Another opinion is that of Charlie Cook, in the "Off to the Races" analysis out this morning, who points to the president's ad campaign.
Cook gives a rather downcast view of the state of the Kerry campaign and suggests that the massive Bush ad campaign against Kerry is finally bearing fruit. Nevertheless, measures of public opinion on Iraq keep heading south, as does the all-important 'is the country headed in the right direction/wrong direction' question. He concludes by saying that "Kerry's rising negative ratings and an increase in Bush's own problems create a wash -- a race that remains a dead heat in this evenly divided country."
A contrary reading of these polls might suggest that the president gains as national security and war issues become more salient, even if they are becoming more salient because of what seem to be objectively bad news about his policies. But I suspect Cook's read is closer to the mark.
-- Josh Marshall
Made the same comments myself on the Teixeira blog yesterday.
Coincidence?
Taught Charlie everything he knows.
5132. judithathome - 4/19/2004 8:51:33 PM
So aren't they getting the government they deserve?
Some are but meanwhile the rest of us have to suffer from uninformed voters' stupidity.
5133. jayackroyd - 4/19/2004 8:55:16 PM
So your alternative is?
5134. thoughtful - 4/19/2004 9:02:39 PM
KtheH, under what circumstances or in what "context" would it be appropriate to feel sorry for an 82 year old woman who is working to feed herself?
5135. judithathome - 4/19/2004 9:13:03 PM
Maybe that 82 year old woman had a broken leg and needed the money to pay her part of the co-pay for the electronic bone stimulator prescribed by her doctor...the one that stuck her with a $500 co-pay on a $4,000 item.
Yes, that has happened to us and luckily, we have the wherewithal to pay our part but it certainly made me wonder what people without insurance do when they break their legs.
5136. judithathome - 4/19/2004 9:15:07 PM
So your alternative is?
I have no idea how you force people to become more politically aware.
5137. KuligintheHooligan - 4/19/2004 9:16:41 PM
If some of you idiots could read properly, you'd see that I was making general comments, not attempting to go into specifics about a woman I do not know.
Jeez.
5138. judithathome - 4/19/2004 9:23:05 PM
The fact you have to call is idiots is very telling.
5139. judithathome - 4/19/2004 9:24:13 PM
...although I guess I qualify as one since I can't even spell US correctly.
5140. thoughtful - 4/19/2004 9:28:28 PM
K the H, i'm asking you in general.
I recognize the importance of personal responsibility and I recognize the risk of what economists call "moral hazard".
But to take a woman who is 82 and working (she can be a woman in general since neither of us know anything about her) and suggest that if she's in this circumstance because of past mistakes she's made or somehow identify the cause of her situation as "her own fault" suggests that only those who are in circumstances completely beyond their control (and I'm not sure how that is defined...lose your house to a tornado...it's your fault for living in oklahoma in the first place) deserve "assistance" which further suggests that someone somehow must be set up as moral arbitor to judge who is and isn't worthy.
Not an appetizing solution IMHO.
5141. thoughtful - 4/19/2004 9:30:55 PM
I think Milton Friedman's solution deserves airing...the negative income tax. Create the tax structure such that those who work are always better off than those who don't but set a minimum floor so no one, regardless of cause, lives below poverty. Incentives built in and moral hazard is eliminated. Plus it's cost effective and efficient.
5142. jayackroyd - 4/19/2004 9:57:03 PM
Thoughtful--
Can you repost that over in the slow thread? We've been pretty successful moving the discussion over to there.
5143. KuligintheHooligan - 4/19/2004 9:57:25 PM
"The fact you have to call is idiots is very telling."
Yes, it is.
5144. KuligintheHooligan - 4/19/2004 10:02:09 PM
thoughtful,
Again, I was only making general comments. I made that clear from the start, but some people don't read too closely and immediately start painting me to be some widow-hating insensitive type. Thus my "idiot" remark.
Okay, here's my point. Often, all we is the 80 year old and we think, "Oh, poor baby. If only our government could do something better for people like that." And then, if we are real idiots about it, as some here seem to be, we pin it all on a Repub administration.
But that is ENTIRELY out of context. We have NO CLUE what this person has done up to this point, whether or not this person has squandered all their money, been fiscally irresponsible, etc. etc.
I am absolutely sick and tired of the attitude which pervades our society today, the one which never takes responsibility for oneself and is always quick to find a scapegoat for problems which I aggravated if I didn't in fact create them myself.
So we look for quick fixes and of course, it is always the government that must be doing it for us. Thus my GENERAL comments.
5145. KuligintheHooligan - 4/19/2004 10:06:07 PM
"Create the tax structure such that those who work are always better off than those who don't but set a minimum floor so no one, regardless of cause, lives below poverty."
Of course, how one defines "poverty" is quite tricky. When I became a missionary, I took a 75% pay cut. Yes, it was my own choice and hence my own fault, as was having five children. And as I noted, I currently have a salary which falls under the poverty line.
However, I am clearly not poor, nor could I complain about being so. And if I am 80 and still find myself in need of work to make ends meet, I don't think I will be blaming the government for that. I've made my own choices, and at the age of 39, I can think of thousands of dollars that, had I decided more wisely in how to spend it, could have helped me in my retirement years.
In other words, my retirement will be what I have made it to be. And I think that can be said generally about most people. Not all, but most.
How I live in my retirement can be directly correlated to how I live my life now. Do I waste? Am I foolish in how I currently spend my money?
It's my life and my responsibility, not the government's.
5146. thoughtful - 4/19/2004 10:07:40 PM
As Jay requested, I have moved my follow-up comment to ktheH to the slow thread.
5147. PelleNilsson - 4/19/2004 10:40:25 PM
Jean-Paul Sartre would be proud of you, Kuligin.
5148. judithathome - 4/19/2004 11:00:59 PM
I am absolutely sick and tired of the attitude which pervades our society today, the one which never takes responsibility for oneself and is always quick to find a scapegoat for problems which I aggravated if I didn't in fact create them myself.
Faith, hope, and charity...what's the rest of that line? And the greatest of these is charity?
I don't think most older people run around blaming the government for their problems nor do they look to the government to solve them. Most are simply trying to make ends meet and doing the best they can.
5149. arkymalarky - 4/20/2004 1:05:33 AM
Alistair,
Arky, why the support for Bush among the young? Are they buying the bullshit? Naive patriotism?
Don't think so. Just rednecks.
5150. arkymalarky - 4/20/2004 1:28:58 AM
The people who work the hardest get screwed the most. It's gotten far worse under this administration and if Bush is reelected that trend will continue.
5151. arkymalarky - 4/20/2004 1:31:05 AM
I was kidding with the "redneck" remark, btw. In my area of AR, young people tend to be much more opposed to Bush. I imagine social conservatism elsewhere in the state is responsible for the numbers. What surprised me more was the elderly's strong opposition to Bush. That would worry me, and I wonder what the age ranges are in the latest CNN et al poll. I'll look at it when I get more time.
5152. judithathome - 4/20/2004 1:32:12 AM
Yes, and if he wins in November, he won't even have to make a pretense of doing anything but screw the middle and under classes because his re-elction won't depend on it.
5153. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 4/20/2004 2:10:41 AM
Sorry jay, just spotted this . . .
5130. jayackroyd - 4/20/2004 2:34:07 PM
So aren't they getting the government they deserve?
Perhaps, but we all suffer as a result.
5154. arkymalarky - 4/20/2004 2:20:20 AM
If Dems lose this election I blame them to a large degree. On the state level, the lack of effectiveness and teamwork and ability to broaden its appeal is really frustrating. Most AR politicians still run as Dems, but they have no sense of party like the Republicans do, and right now the Republicans in the state are split and it would be a great opportunity for Dems to regroup and gain some ground, but it's simply not happening that I can see.
5155. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 4/20/2004 3:31:00 AM
Ark-I don't know if you listen to Air America, but I've been listening of late and I'm encouraged. I think Dems are learning to beat the right at their own game.
We're seeing more and more hypocrites self-destruct because their tricks are starting to get old. Don't be glum because we're gonna win.
5156. arkymalarky - 4/20/2004 4:24:06 AM
I hope so. I just posted a rather depressing rant in the Slow thread. I need to step back from our situation here to get some perspective.
Some people have asked in here whether Bush opponents want him to fail in the economy and Iraq. I think he has failed, and a few weeks of good news doesn't negate a four year disaster of a presidency. I don't want to fail in either area, and that's why I think it's important he get defeated. I wish the Democrats had stronger candidates, but they just didn't. There's a lot of difference between so-so and disastrous, though. In fact, that's how I would compare Bush Sr and Bush Jr. I truly believe he's horrible for the country, and for the traditional values of the Republican Party. I would like to see Republicans wrench the party back from the monied forces that have come to dominate it, and I hope people like McCain can help accomplish that.
5157. arkymalarky - 4/20/2004 4:24:53 AM
I'm not familiar with Air America. Can you get it on satellite radio?
5158. KuligintheHooligan - 4/20/2004 5:13:42 AM
Bush is a breath of fresh air, especially after eight years of Clinton pointing his finger in the air, testing opinion polls for his own bloody opinions. "What do you believe, Mr. Clinton?" "Well, uh, what do YOU believe?" And so on.
Bush knows what he wants, isn't afraid to say it and go for it. He isn't spineless like Clinton, and that to me is a real positive. He has geniune convictions and says it like he means it.
As for Kerry, well, Kerry is the exact opposite. More like Clinton, actually, in that respect.
"The people who work the hardest get screwed the most."
And this is just utter bullshit rhetoric. It is so entirely generally as to be effectively meaningless.
5159. jexster - 4/20/2004 5:51:13 AM
Arky...Jonesin for polls?
Knock yourself out:
>Eight Out of 10 Polls Released Since April 1 Show Kerry Beating Bush
5160. jexster - 4/20/2004 6:26:15 AM
The Budget Bullshit - About to hit the fan..
From the Wpost
Intense combat in Iraq (news - web sites) is chewing up military hardware and consuming money at an unexpectedly rapid rate -- depleting military coffers, straining defense contractors and putting pressure on Bush administration officials to seek a major boost in war funding long before they had hoped.
Rep. Curt Weldon (news, bio, voting record) (R-Pa.), vice chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, charged that the president is playing political games by postponing further funding requests until after the election, to try to avoid reopening debate on the war's cost and future.
Weldon described the administration's current defense budget request as "outrageous" and "immoral" and said that at least $10 billion is needed for Iraqi operations over the next five months.
"There needs to be a supplemental, whether it's a presidential election year or not," he said. "The support of our troops has to be the number one priority of this country. . . . Somebody's got to get serious about this."
Rep. Chet Edwards (news, bio, voting record) (D-Tex.), who returned from Iraq on March 23, said senior Army officers and contractors told him "serious problems" will surface this summer if Congress does not approve more spending by June. Without the additional funding, food concession contracts will have to be renegotiated and operations and training bases in the United States will have to be cannibalized to finance operations in Iraq.
"If one American soldier in Iraq loses his life because Congress and the administration were afraid of the political consequences of another supplemental appropriations bill, shame on everyone who should be a part of that process," Edwards said.
Somebody's got to get serious about this.
Serious?
Gorelick
5161. arkymalarky - 4/20/2004 11:10:46 AM
"The people who work the hardest get screwed the most."
And this is just utter bullshit
Sorry, Kuligin, but I have much more direct experience in that than you do, and in AR it's completely true.
5162. arkymalarky - 4/20/2004 11:11:48 AM
Hitler knew what he wanted too. In and of itself it's at minimum a useless trait, because he's our president, not his own--nor corporate America's, for that matter. At worst it's evil at its purest.
5163. arkymalarky - 4/20/2004 11:13:23 AM
Thanks Jex. I was jonesin for them until I saw the CNN one, but that's a good site to keep up with.
5164. OhioSTOPAS - 4/20/2004 12:15:56 PM
In Message # 5065 I linked to an accusation by author Ron Suskind that at President Bush's recent press conference reporters submitted their questions in advance.
Here is some interesting correspondendence with the New York Times ombudsman regarding this allegation:
"His reply:
Dear Mr. Wright,
I'm fairly certain that two reporters at the press conference asked unscripted questions.
Sincerely,
Arthur Bovino
Office of the Public Editor
Unsatisfied with an incomplete reply, I pressed for more information.
Thank you for your quick reply.
Only two? Was the NYT reporter's question scripted?
Tony Wright
He replied two minutes later with this:
Dear Mr. Wright,
I am uncertain if Ms. Bumiller's question was submitted to the president before-hand.
Perhaps you might write to the president if you are unhappy with this system.
Sincerely,
Arthur Bovino
Office of the Public Editor"
What the HELL?!?
5165. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 4/20/2004 1:42:40 PM
I'm not familiar with Air America. Can you get it on satellite radio?
Air America
Ark- All you need is a Real Player browser plugin. I highly recommend "Morning Sedition" 6am -9am, and "The O'Franken Factor" Noon - 3pm & 11pm-2am.
On "Morning Sedition" there is a comedian, Mark Maron, who has wonderful wit and on Al Franken's show they have great guest callers. Another interesting element of his show is that, unlike Limbaugh, Franken encourages Dittoheads to call and debate. Some very funny moments--often.
5166. jexster - 4/20/2004 3:07:04 PM
Neat banner ad...Village Voice
5167. jexster - 4/20/2004 3:37:13 PM
Feed your habit Arky...
A Bush Bump?
Two polls released today--Gallup and ABC News/Washington Post--give small leads to Bush over Kerry in presidential trial heat questions. The Gallup poll (using RVs and the Kerry-Bush not Kerry-Bush-Nader trial heat) shows Bush with a 4 point lead (50-46), while the ABC News poll gives Bush a 1 point lead (49-48). (Note that this latter result is not from a standard Kerry-Bush trial heat question, which ABC News chose not to ask, but rather from combining a Kerry-Bush-Nader trial heat question with a followup to Nader supporters/undecideds on who they would support if Nader doesn't run or isn't on the ballot. Guess they just wanted to be different.)
So: two polls, two RV leads, one taken April 16-18 (Gallup), the other taken April 15-18 (ABC News).
Here are other RV Kerry-Bush results for April:
Newsweek, April 8-9....................Kerry, 50-43
ARG, April 6-9.............................Kerry, 50-44
Gallup, April 5-8..........................Kerry, 48-45
Fox, April 6-7..............................Kerry, 44-43
CBS News, March 30-April 1.........Kerry, 48-43
Note that each of these polls has Kerry ahead.
This is probably as good a time as any for the Kerry campaign to start that push-back, including especially defining Kerry positively for voters. Bush, as the data clearly show, has been massively undermined in his core area of strength, and, despite his much-vaunted advertisements and (probably more important) having the field to himself for six weeks, has Kerry breathing down his neck.
If the Kerry campaign can kick their game up a notch, they should really start to make the Bushies sweat.
Comment: AMEN
5168. arkymalarky - 4/20/2004 3:55:12 PM
I hope they do that soonest, Jex.
Thanks for the link, Wiz. Mom has satellite radio and gets the Franken show, but I forget RealPlayer. I'll try to remember to tune in this summer, especially.
5169. jexster - 4/20/2004 4:18:22 PM
The Bush 2005 Budget has ZERO NADA not a fuckin dime for Iraq.
Curt Weldon, a republican, yesterday blasted Bush for not coming forth with a supplemental FOR THIS YEAR stating that we needed TEN BILLION just to keep the troops going thru Oct when the new year starts.
Chuck Hagel, agreeing "absolutely" with Joe Biden, pointedly said on Today that "it was time for the Admin to be honest"
"Every ground squirrel knows that it will take between 50 and 75 BILLION just to maintain US forces in Iraq in FY 2005 and they haven't come forth because its an election year"
Is this any way to run a democracy????
All these lies? Internal wars? Culture wars? Character assassinations?
5170. jexster - 4/20/2004 5:01:01 PM
Today's Google Indicies:
Bush/Moron 122,000 +2000
Bush/Liar 214,000 (new index)
5171. wonkers2 - 4/20/2004 8:18:47 PM
Jex, did you notice that Katherine Roberts of Trees Not Cars called yesterday for a phone blitz to Mayor Gavin Newsom and the Supervisors on the Golden Gate Park garage? She alleges irreparable damage to the cherry trees.
5172. jexster - 4/20/2004 9:29:35 PM
Poll: Americans Think Bush Losing GWOT
5173. jexster - 4/20/2004 9:47:41 PM
Enuf of Bush's lies..
Ken Pollack huge (and now embarrassed) war supporter from Brookings:
- we need to take over all security and policing ops in Iraq
- we need 40-60,000 more US troops, troops that we do not have
- we need foreign troops (coalition crumbling)
- we need a legitimate Iraqi govt
Needed all of that months ago.
5174. jexster - 4/20/2004 9:52:36 PM
CNN reports from the Convention Among the Ruins -
NYC having trouble getting volunteers to help Republicans
9/11 groups plan to piss on any and all attempts to take advantage of tragedy.
Mass protest groups converging..have personally talked with a leader of one.
5175. jexster - 4/20/2004 9:58:17 PM
More good news..
Bob Mr. Republican Novak considers it likely that Tom DeLay will be indicted on charges arising out of the Perrymandering scandal.
5176. thoughtful - 4/20/2004 9:59:56 PM
KtheH, "Bush is a breath of fresh air, especially after eight years of Clinton pointing his finger in the air, testing opinion polls for his own bloody opinions."
Then why do you suppose Bush&co spend as much as they do on pollsters?
As Kathryn Dunn Tenpas at Brookings points out:
President George W. Bush pledged repeatedly throughout his presidential campaign that his administration would have no use for polls and focus groups: "I really don't care what polls and focus groups say. What I care about is doing what I think is right." Shackled by that promise, President Bush and his staff have shrouded his polling apparatus, minimizing the relevance of polls and denying their impact. But public records available from the Federal Election Commission, documents from presidential libraries, and interviews with key players paint a fairly clear picture of the Bush polling operation. The picture, which turns out to be a familiar one, calls into question the administration's purported "anti-polling" ethos and shows an administration closely in keeping with historical precedent.
Like much else in the administration, it's not that they don't do these things, they just do them in secret and then deny they do it at all.
I was looking for a reference but couldn't find it...that bush actually polled on whether or not he should admit to any mistakes.
5177. jexster - 4/20/2004 10:17:42 PM
Good coordination here...CNN just carried statement from Terry McAuliffe blasting GOP for attacking his service record (BALLS!)
At the same moment I got this in my email:
Dear John,
The Bush Campaign has violated every standard of decency by attacking John Kerry's military service. When it comes down to it, this is an attack on all veterans, soldiers and their families. And so we're asking for help from all Americans to hit back now:
https://contribute.johnkerry.com
RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie and Bush Campaign Manager Ken Melhman are running an ugly smear campaign on John Kerry's service in Vietnam. We've seen this before. In 2000 they ran a "whisper campaign" against John McCain, suggesting his time as a POW made him unfit for the Presidency. Then in this campaign, their surrogates have even questioned Max Cleland's war heroism -- a man who received a Silver Star and lost three limbs in the Vietnam War.
The fact is they're terrified of running against John Kerry's war record. And so they're desperately doing everything they can to try to tear it down.
We need to hit back, and hit back hard to get out the truth. We've learned that the Bush Campaign will say and do anything in the attack ads they're running in key swings states.
As a young man, John Kerry volunteered for two tours of duty in Vietnam. He risked his life while trying to save the lives of others. He was awarded the Bronze Star and Silver Star for going above and beyond the call of duty. He was injured three times in battle and received three Purple Hearts. The story Melhman and Gillespie are desperately trying to push is that John Kerry was not injured badly enough to receive one of his Purple Hearts. It sounds incredible, but that's the attack they're pushing: Not injured badly enough.
Mary Beth Cahill
Campaign Manager, John Kerry for President
5178. jexster - 4/20/2004 10:18:56 PM
And now that records have been released...they say "hey we didn't mean anything by it" This just this second from Ed Gillespie
5179. thoughtful - 4/20/2004 10:21:39 PM
and KtheH, I have another question for you about this administration. You, and many others seem to be very big on personal responsibility...the importance of admitting one's mistakes, taking responsibility for one's choices.
How do you feel about the fact that neither bush nor anyone else close to him has admitted to making any mistakes about WMD or reasons for attacking iraq or taking responsibility for 9/11 or any of those things?
Jon Stewart had a great clip of condi's testimony where he parsed together all the various phrases in which she said or implied it wasn't her responsibility, it wasn't the administration's responsibility or it was someone else's responsibility.
I remember during the lewinsky thing, so many conservatives said, if he'd only come out and admit the truth of what he'd done....if only he'd take responsibility. Was wondering if there's any comparable feeling about bush&co. and their unwillingness to take responsibility.
5180. wonkers2 - 4/20/2004 11:33:52 PM
For a matter of grave public importance, in contrast to Clinton's dalliance with Monica.
5181. jexster - 4/21/2004 12:48:12 AM
We Christians like to tell the truth; take responsibility, and avoid war.
5182. jexster - 4/21/2004 1:19:43 AM
But when called by our country, we kill everything we see
Kerry Kombat: High Praise, High Body Count
And how many medals did Bush win? How many quail did he kill while on duty?
Oh I forgot, Cheney was the War Hero?
Rummy?
Wolfowitz?
Oh yeah...Colin Powell, Bush's lawn jockey
5183. jexster - 4/21/2004 3:43:12 AM
"I request duty in Vietnam" --
First line in one of the documents from John Kerry's service records, now posted on the Kerry website.
And what about HIS service records..
AWOL
5184. OhioSTOPAS - 4/21/2004 1:54:08 PM
I remember how the Bushies proudly displayed proof that Bush in fact showed up for his Alabama National Guard duty: records of his visit to the DENTIST.
The Repubs must be wondering why they thought it was a good idea to demand release of Kerry's war records.
5185. OhioSTOPAS - 4/21/2004 1:57:17 PM
John Kerry's release of military records:
DOCUMENTS: A stack of records of dangerous combat missions and glowing evaluations of Kerry's performance under fire.
AWARDS: Three Purple Hearts, one Bronze Star, one Silver Star.
George W. Bush's release of military records:
DOCUMENT: One "I WENT TO THE DENTIST" sticker.
AWARD: One lollypop.
5186. OhioSTOPAS - 4/21/2004 2:32:54 PM
RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie, grasping for some face-saving straws:
"Sen. Kerry served from 1966 to 1978. If he did not intend to release all his officer evaluations, records of attendance including reserve duty attendance, medical records and all other military records held by him or the government, he should not have pledged to do so. He and his campaign should stop the word games and keep the pledge he made on national television."
Uh-huh. As President Bush is alleged to have said to George Tenet, nice try.
5187. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 4/21/2004 4:43:29 PM
5188. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 4/21/2004 5:12:59 PM
Not since Jane Goodall lived with chimps in Tanzania has there been such a vivid study of the nonverbal patterns of primates engaged in a dominance display.
5189. Magoseph - 4/21/2004 5:29:42 PM
Another take on Kerry Vietnam Record
Even a commander who, 36 years after the fact, questioned a Purple Heart awarded to Mr. Kerry in 1968, recorded no reservations at the time. The officer, Grant W. Hibbard, a lieutenant commander during Mr. Kerry's five-month tour in Vietnam, told The Boston Globe last week that the wound for which Mr. Kerry won his first Purple Heart was no more than a small scratch.
But there was nothing negative about Mr. Kerry in an evaluation that Mr. Hibbard wrote two weeks after that incident.
For the most part, Mr. Hibbard wrote, Mr. Kerry was under his command for too short a time to evaluate him fully. Of 16 categories for rating, including professional knowledge, moral courage and loyalty, Mr. Hibbard checked "not observed" in 12. Mr. Hibbard gave Mr. Kerry the highest rating of "one of the top few" in three categories — initiative, cooperation and personal behavior. He gave Mr. Kerry the second-best rating, "above the majority," in military bearing. Reached Wednesday at his retirement home in Florida, Mr. Hibbard said he had no comment.
5190. judithathome - 4/21/2004 7:13:41 PM
Face it, Kerry had a shrapnel wound and Bush had cavities. Which would you award a Purple Heart?
5191. jexster - 4/21/2004 7:14:23 PM
Ruy T and the DLC are now saying what I have for over two years:
Most crucially, Kerry must undermine the bedrock premise of the president's case for re-election: that George W. Bush is the embodiment of the war on terror, and the indispensable man for keeping America safe. Kerry's ability and willingness to do just that are his best potential weapons as the campaign unfolds.
Sounds like a plan.
5192. Magoseph - 4/21/2004 8:52:09 PM
Diebold apologizes for device flaws
It is an uncommon day when the nation's second-largest provider of voting systems concedes that its flagship products in California have significant security flaws and that it supplied hundreds of poorly designed electronic-voting devices that disenfranchised voters in the March presidential primary.
Diebold Election Services Inc. president Bob Urosevichadmitted this and more, and apologized "for any embarrassment."
"We were caught. We apologize for that," Urosevich said of the mass failures of devices needed to call up digital ballots. Poll-workers in Alameda and San Diego counties hadn't been trained on ways around their failure, and San Diego County chose not to supply polls with backup paper ballots, crippling the largest rollout of e-voting in the nation on March 2. Unknown thousands of voters were turned away at the polls.
They better fix all their machines before the national elections.
5193. thoughtful - 4/21/2004 9:02:40 PM
I posted several days ago about this administration's lack of belief in objective reality. This is a huge issue in my book, and if you accept it, it explains a lot about why they do what they do. For example, start with the belief that democrats can't be patriots, then do foolish things like demand kerry's military record be published on the certain belief that it will demonstrate cowardice. When it doesn't, it becomes irrelevant. Facts are malleable, designed to serve one's own purpose.
Principles apparently are as well. In a few short years bushies have gone from no nation building, to preemptive strikes to protect the nation, to making it a personal mission endorsed by god to bring freedom to the world. That's more than one giant leap for mankind...that's into the next universe!
5194. vonKreedon - 4/21/2004 9:08:53 PM
Diebold's President apologized for "any embarrassment", for "any inconvenience to the voters" and for being caught!?! Yow!
5195. alistairConnor - 4/21/2004 9:50:45 PM
There was a controversy a few months ago about whether Diebold's systems were deliberately insecure and apparently bug-ridden, in order to leave open "backdoors" to enable tampering on election days.
My instinct is to never ascribe to conspiracy what can be explained by stupidity and incompetence; and I know how things work in the IT industry...
On the other hand, I would not want this instinct to be put to the test in a close election;
5196. judithathome - 4/21/2004 10:00:38 PM
Well, there's always the option of resorting to the Supreme Court.
5197. vonKreedon - 4/21/2004 10:01:50 PM
AC - I agree, but Mr. Urosevich's apology gives me pause. The man apologized for causing embarrassment and for being caught. It may well be that he's a tongue tied geek who simply spoke in a very awkward way, or it may be that he is a tongue tied geek who mispoke the truth in a big way.
Anyone know if anyone outside of Diebold/FEC is testing this system?
5198. jayackroyd - 4/22/2004 1:10:49 AM
The problem doesn't really lie with the vendors; ATM machines have a paper record. Banks demand them. Voting machines should have a method for recounting the votes. Purely electronic solutions are inherently broken.
5199. jayackroyd - 4/22/2004 4:37:08 AM
You know, jex, the polls so far are supporting the win-win scenario.
TPM:
I have a newspaper column out tomorrow which pursues the hypothesis I mentioned a few days ago that an escalating crisis in Iraq might actually help President Bush, even though the crisis is demonstrably of his own making.
Meanwhile, Ruy Teixeira has a post on his blog DonkeyRising which says Bush's recent rise in the polls reflects his bulking up on support in the bright red states without making much if any headway in the battleground states where the race will be won or lost.
5200. Magoseph - 4/22/2004 3:41:54 PM
... Bush's recent rise in the polls reflects his bulking up on support in the bright red states without making much if any headway in the battleground states where the race will be won or lost.
I heard a report that Bush had already spent a hundred-million dollars. Could it be that if his poll numbers did not improve at this early stage, it might become more difficult to raise money? It's hard for me to understandhis money being spent in the red States, except from a sense of fear that if he goes down too far early, he might not be able to come back.
I recall Andrea Mitchell suggesting this about a week or ten days ago.
5201. judithathome - 4/22/2004 3:46:34 PM
It will not be hard for Bush to continue raising money. Just look at all the pork the Republicans are getting...they will continue to support the sausage machine, no matter what.
5202. Magoseph - 4/22/2004 4:03:43 PM
I agree with you completely, Juds, but the corporate sector if they see Bush remaining down in the polls might send insurance money to Kerry. I think that's the main reason why the polls are so important to the Bush crowd. It probably is not so much that they can't continue to raise money but more that they want to cut Kerry off from funding. Putting that money into their states and activating the true believers does the poll job for them.
5203. jexster - 4/22/2004 5:46:12 PM
I don't think Kerry can count on insurance, oil n gas, or pharmaceuticals even if he's 20 points ahead....He's not gonna get more than 1 in 4 dollars if that...
A President Kerry v. a Republican Congress with a chance of a Dem Senate is about what they are looking at...they'll be looking to circle wagons around the Hill.
5204. jexster - 4/22/2004 5:48:57 PM
Iraq: The Mideast HQ for Bush-Cheney ’04
Six months ago, when I first reported on the political makeup of the Coalition Provisional Authority, I kept hearing a quip about its Baghdad headquarters: “They don’t call it the Republican Palace for nuthin’.”
To anyone who’s been reporting on the CPA for the past eight months, those claims of rampant politicization won’t come as any surprise. Consider Dan Senor, who, as Bremer’s chief spokesman, has become the virtual face of the occupation in recent days.
Before getting an MBA from Harvard in 2001, Senor served as press secretary for then-Sen. Spencer Abraham (R-Mich.) before Abraham became secretary of energy.
After Harvard, Senor went to the Bush-family-affiliated Carlyle Group, where he worked as a venture capitalist before becoming a deputy to White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan.
Senor had barely cooled his heels at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. when he shipped off to Iraq,
“Everything is seen in the context of the election, and how they will screw the Democrats,” one CPA official said last winter. “It was really pretty shocking to hear them talk.”
But Senor’s flagrant spin-doctoring has apparently proved counterproductive.
Yesterday, I spoke to a highly credible source who recently returned from Baghdad, where he works with the U.S. and international media.
“Senor lies so often and so easily most media just stopped trying to use him as a source, unless forced to,” he said.
5205. thoughtful - 4/22/2004 6:16:08 PM
From the daily kos:
The shorter Bush/Kerry comparison by kos Wed Apr 21st, 2004 at 19:02:16 EDT
Kerry: "Intelligent, mature and rich in educational background and experience, Ens Kerry is one of the finest young officers I have ever met and without question one of the most promising."
Bush: "Lt. Bush has not been observed at this unit during the period of report."
5206. marjoribanks - 4/22/2004 6:18:21 PM
There could scarcely be a less impressive, more lying-looking, spokesman for America in Iraq than Senor. No feel for the region, no historical perspective, no language skills.
It's appalling that he is the US face on the ground.
5207. jexster - 4/22/2004 6:20:42 PM
I've noticed how he's always there right next to Brig Gen Kimmet at every appearance hovering, speaking, like his handler....
Friday Follies Redux
5208. jexster - 4/22/2004 6:22:58 PM
The most appalling thing - how CNN dotes on every word...
As the article points out, only the most junior and lazy reporters in Baghdad pay attention to these flaks..
Junior reporters and Wolf Blitzer
5209. marjoribanks - 4/22/2004 6:28:09 PM
Oh it's bad, and the insistence on politicizing every element of the communication about Iraq is horribly bad news for this democracy. Incompetent Senor being exhibit 1000, only.
The thing is, the freaking polls seem to show that a solid half (or slightly more) of Americans don't care. They don't want accountability. They don't want someone to pay for the lies, the manipulations.
This democracy is in bad shape, man.
5210. Magoseph - 4/22/2004 7:53:34 PM
5211. Magoseph - 4/22/2004 7:54:26 PM
Toys
5212. jexster - 4/22/2004 7:56:40 PM
Subject: The Dots are connected...
To: "Joshua Marshal"
Josh,
HeadlineNEws is reporting that Sharon has all but decided to assassinate Arafat and raised the subject in his meeting with Bush..
[Sharon No Longer Bound by Pledge Not to Harm Arafat
Reuters via Yahoo! News - 7 minutes ago]
Couple this with the announcement that the State Dept wanted Spain to mediate the PAL/Israeli conflict and
The recent provocations by the US in Iraq including the threatened attacks on Fallujah and Iraq
The Dots are connected...
Bush is going to try to win his election just as Sharon won his...by provoking unimaginable turmoil and violence
The Push for War
Anatol Lieven considers what the US Administration hopes to gain
5213. jexster - 4/22/2004 7:58:03 PM
I have a newspaper column out tomorrow which pursues the hypothesis I mentioned a few days ago that an escalating crisis in Iraq might actually help President Bush, even though the crisis is demonstrably of his own making.
Meanwhile, Ruy Teixeira has a post on his blog DonkeyRising which says Bush's recent rise in the polls reflects his bulking up on support in the bright red states without making much if any headway in the battleground states where the race will be won or lost.
For what it's worth, I remain fundamentally optimistic about this race.
-- Josh Marshall
5214. jayackroyd - 4/22/2004 9:33:28 PM
This column is on today's NTTimes op-ed page.
5215. wonkers2 - 4/22/2004 10:44:29 PM
Why is is that every time that Bush says "We aren't going to cut and run!" it occurs to me that what he's really thinking is "How can we get the hell out of Iraq without anyone realizing we are cutting and running?"?
5216. jexster - 4/23/2004 3:33:28 AM
You oughta hear Woodward reading transcripts line and verse proving Powell, Rummy, and Condi liars by theirs and Bush's own words from transcripts
They shoulda done with Clarke what they've done with Powell - put "Against All Enemies" as recommended reading on the Bush Cheney Website.
5217. jexster - 4/23/2004 4:27:41 AM
Here's Marshall's "newspaper article"
Bitch...I exchanged 4 emails with the guy today and never learned that it was NyT Op Ed until Jay told us!
The way the NyT is these days I don't get past Krugman.
Marshall kept refeing to "my newspaper article"
Reminded me of a fella who used to be an LA in the Senate office where I worked as a kid..
"Where did ya go to law school?"
"oh a school in the NE"
"But where?"
"Harvard"
"Oh Well how did ya do?'
"Oh well"
"but how well?"
"I was editor of the Harvard Law Review"
"Oh damn! SO what'd ya do when ya got out?"
"I clerked for a federal judge"
"Oh yeah? Which one?"
"A supreme court Justice"
"Which Justice?"
"The Chief"
Sheesh.
5218. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 4/23/2004 4:50:47 PM
The image turning America against Bush
5219. jayackroyd - 4/23/2004 5:11:10 PM
5217
It takes a while to stop doing that. It's an attempt to avoid looking like you're showing off. But it comes off as showing off even more.
5223. jexster - 4/24/2004 12:02:11 AM
What a fuckin ninny!
Iraq and Terrorism
I've been arguing lately that, while the horse race may have been dancing around a bit, the most politically salient change has been the huge doubts that have been raised about Bush's approach to Iraq in particular and to the war on terror in general. Here are some findings from Ipsos-AP that suggest just how serious this damage has been.
First, consider the question of whether the Iraq war was a mistake. You know when more people than not starting thinking a war was a mistake (remember Vietnam!), the incumbent administration is in real trouble. And Ipsos now has the first example of this. They asked the question: "All in all, thinking about how things have gone in Iraq since the United States went to war there in March 2003, do you think the Bush administration made the right decision in going to war in Iraq or made a mistake in going to war in Iraq?" The response: 49 percent mistake/48 percent right decision. When Ipsos asked the same question four months ago, however, they got a lopsidedly positive reply: 67 percent right decision/29 percent mistake. Quite a change.
But here's the real mind-blower. Given a straight-up choice between whether "in the long term.....there will be more or less terrorism in the United States because the U.S. went to war in Iraq?", the public believes, by 54 percent to 37 percent, that the war will produce more, not less, terrrorism in our country.
In other words, not only has the war in Iraq become a big mess which gets more US soldiers killed every day, but we're actually less safe at home now because of it. No wonder more and more of the public thinks the war was a mistake. And I wouldn't be suprised if that thought has crossed Karl Rove's mind as well.
5224. jexster - 4/24/2004 12:04:58 AM
My deepest apologies...a friend just told me to re-read...and I definitely misread..
Raw nerves from recent incidents.
I am sorry Jay..
Thanks S.
5225. vonKreedon - 4/24/2004 3:14:23 AM
Jex - Do you mind if I delete your posts 5220 - 5222?
5226. robertjayb - 4/24/2004 3:54:54 AM
Maureen Dowd strolls through Bushworld...
It's their reality. We just live and die in it.
5227. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 4/24/2004 4:09:48 AM
WoW says WOW!!!!
5228. lemwalker - 4/24/2004 5:34:56 AM
Went to the county Democratic convention today. Quite chaotic. Heard Will Rogers once said he 'wouldn't belong to any organized party, which is why I am a Democrat'. Very diverse group. Wound up sending delegates to state for Kerry, Dean and Kucinich(?). Many were there for first time, or back after many years absence. Maybe there will be a large voter turnout this fall, for a change.
5229. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 4/24/2004 6:10:12 AM
Ther had better be—for all our sake.
5230. Absensia - 4/24/2004 6:42:09 AM
Great Op-Ed column!
5231. OhioSTOPAS - 4/24/2004 2:29:44 PM
Later this morning Bush and Kerry spokespeople Marc Racicot and Jeanne Shaheen are going to appear on Fox News Sunday. If it goes like the last time I saw them together (with Candy Crowley on CNN), Racicot will walk all over her, interrupting her as she politely tries to make her points (but indignantly saying "Let me finish!" if she tries to interject a correction to anything he says). Racicot will also be granted the last word by the friendly-to-GOP host.
Maybe I'll be proven wrong. C'mon, Jeanne!
5232. OhioSTOPAS - 4/24/2004 2:34:52 PM
Last night I saw a high school production of "Mister Roberts."
While watching a scene between cabinmates Lieutenant Roberts (intelligent, conscientious Navy Lieutenant J. G.) and Ensign Pulver (shallow but likeable slacker), I thought "Hmmm. Who do these guys remind me of?"
5233. Magoseph - 4/24/2004 7:01:40 PM
Hahaha, some mistake!
5234. robertjayb - 4/24/2004 7:15:10 PM
America in Red & Blue: a nation divided...
The Washington Post begins a three-part series on political division in the America:
Political scientists and practitioners often speak of "Red-Blue America," evoking maps of the 2000 election returns; indeed, the phrase is used so loosely that it has spawned a competing pundit class devoted to knocking down oversimplifications of the idea. In articles Monday and Tuesday, The Washington Post will publish portraits of Americans from the reddest of red zones, the home district of House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Tex.), and the bluest of blues, the San Francisco neighborhood of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).
But first, it's useful to examine the Red-Blue division -- what it is, where it came from, how it has deepened and what it might mean.
5235. Magoseph - 4/24/2004 7:56:46 PM
Sorry, Von, I forgot my tags and I shouldn't have posted the Boondocks strip in this thread. Maybe you can transfer it to the Cafe?
5236. OhioSTOPAS - 4/24/2004 10:56:21 PM
Magoseph - The Boondocks cartoon seems to me to be on-topic to this thread.
However, bin Laden's capture isn't going to be announced in October. Rather, it'll be happen just before the Republican convention. This way President Bush's acceptance speech - delivered from Ground Zero - will have some extra punch.
It's Ronald Reagan's death that's going to be announced in October.
5237. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 4/24/2004 11:42:11 PM
There goes my gag reflex again!
5238. OhioSTOPAS - 4/25/2004 7:37:18 PM
The BIG issue today: In 1971, John Kerry told a reporter that he had thrown his "medals" over the wall at the Vietnam Veterans Against the War protest some months earlier. In fact, he threw combat ribbons, not his metal medals ("Metal medals"? That can't be right.)
Kerry says "medals" is a term that includes ribbons, but that's not good enough for me, nosirree. And I don't care if Kerry's statement was over 30 years ago.
I'm voting for George W. Bush, whom I can confidently say was as honest 30 years ago as he is today.
5239. OhioSTOPAS - 4/25/2004 7:38:49 PM
The big issue last week was that John Kerry said he didn't own an SUV. He thought he could get away with saying that merely because, well, he doesn't own an SUV. What a slippery bastard!
5240. jayackroyd - 4/25/2004 7:56:24 PM
They're not talking about those issues, Ohio. They're trying to define his image as a waffler and a liar--untrustworthy, not a straight shooter like the president.
5241. thoughtful - 4/25/2004 7:59:05 PM
straight shooter like the president...does that mean he doesn't shoot gays? Sorry, I couldn't resist.
straight shooter like the president...from no nation building, to pre-emptive strike on a sovereign nation, to god-given directive to free the peoples of the world. I guess he can shoot straight, but keeps changing what he's aiming at....DUCK!!!!
5242. jayackroyd - 4/25/2004 8:35:58 PM
Despite his rapid policy shifts, his willingness to say one thing and do the other, his commitment to a certain plan until it stops working, he has managed to build and retain that image. I don't understand it. I assume the people who believe it just get cognitive dissonance when contrary evidence shows up.
5243. jayackroyd - 4/25/2004 8:37:21 PM
Ask your husband, thoughtful. Does he think Bush is a straight shooter? Remind him of the "We're going to make them show their cards. We don't care what the whip count is." line Does that change his mind? Why not?
5244. thoughtful - 4/25/2004 8:42:26 PM
no i don't think he does think bush is a straight shooter, but then again, by comparison neither is kerry...that dissembling about he not owning an suv, but his family does is just nonsense. As I said, he would much rather a miracle happens at the RNC and mccain becomes the candidate.
imus had joe biden on the other day and he and i both liked what biden had to say...our dream ticket biden/mccain...or rather mccain/biden for him. but these guys who are thoughtful and sincere with a huge dose of common sense don't ever seem to have a rats chance of getting in.
5245. thoughtful - 4/25/2004 8:44:45 PM
and in looking at the kerry economic team, i was disappointed. clinton seemed to select economists who happened to be democrats....looks to me like kerry selected democrats who happened to be economists. not a good thing.
5246. thoughtful - 4/25/2004 9:01:30 PM
i think the other way the pres comes across as a straight shooter is that he talks in simple terms. given the average educational attainment level of the us populace (not how far they went in school, but what they really learned...y'know all those stats on high schoolers graduating with a 6th grade reading level) he speaks to them at their level.
5247. thoughtful - 4/25/2004 9:07:17 PM
well, i was wrong. I just asked my husband and he said he believes bush is a straight shooter. he believes however that he's surrounded by a bunch of manipulators and he doesn't know whether bush is too weak or too dumb to manage them. I asked about the weapons of mass destruction and he says he was just wrong, but didn't lie. I asked about his saying clinton's budget went up so much and his didn't and he said bush just made a mistake with the numbers. i asked about his going from no nation building to a god-given directive to free peoples around the world and he said there's nothing wrong with changing your mind. i asked about his national guard record and he said, he didn't lie about it...just didn't tell the whole truth, but what he said was correct. he did get an honorable discharge.
so there you have it...a straight shooter...confused, weak, surrounded by manipulators...but not a liar.
5248. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 4/25/2004 11:05:29 PM
We‘ve become a country of lowered expectations & goals, but we kill and blow up things real good!
5249. thoughtful - 4/25/2004 11:20:08 PM
and this is from a guy who sits through my daily breakfast table harangue about the bush admin! Go figure.
5250. wonkers2 - 4/25/2004 11:40:23 PM
How about Bush's portrayal of himself as an environmentalist and as a friend of minorities? He seems to me to be somebody who thinks that if he says something often enough most people will believe it, whatever the truth.
5251. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 4/25/2004 11:41:44 PM
tful- Well there’s still hope for the guy—at least he can still recognize a good and loving woman!
Meanwhile . . .
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