International 1

Wow, this place looks great

2. ProfEmeritus - 8/21/1999 1:36:04 AM

Do I have to post the first message? I was hoping for a quick emergence of this thread. The real leader should be bhel puri, but marj will do equally well. BOTH ARE SINGULARLY QUALIFIED, HAVE ENOUGH EXPERIENCE AND PROBABLY HAVE'T SNORTED COCAINE FOR AT LEAST 15 YEARS. Those caps appeared uninvited, but I am too lazy to change them.

3. ProfEmeritus - 8/21/1999 1:38:33 AM

When I checked two minutes ago, FTC's post wasn't there. Is there a delay via New Zealand?

4. IrvingSnodgrass - 8/21/1999 1:48:27 AM

I wouldn't bet on that probably part, ProfE.

5. glendajean - 8/21/1999 2:43:53 AM

Someone told me the other day that Ireland will issue a passport to any one who can prove Irish ancestry, and that upon getting that passport, it will be respected by other European countries. Is that true?

6. IrvingSnodgrass - 8/21/1999 2:45:18 AM

GJ:
Yes. I think you need to have one great-grandparent who was born in Ireland, or something.

7. IrvingSnodgrass - 8/21/1999 2:46:23 AM

I happen to have one of those, or maybe it's a great-great grandparent. But every Irishperson I meet does the hard sell on me, telling me to apply for my passport.

8. CalGal - 8/21/1999 2:46:28 AM

Hey, I had a grandma born in Wales. Does that count?

9. IrvingSnodgrass - 8/21/1999 2:47:35 AM

It might, when Wales starts issuing passports.

10. glendajean - 8/21/1999 2:47:57 AM

Wales would place you in the United Kingdom and I assume they're not as generous as the Irish Republic.

11. glendajean - 8/21/1999 2:51:22 AM

Hey, I think I do have a great grandparent born in Ireland.


Useful information when they round up all the gay people in this country.


It's funny, but sometime around the 1992 Republican convention in Houston, almost every single gay person I knew had this fear that we were going to be rounded up, so to speak. I'm sure Patrick Buchanan's speech probably helped stoke that fear. I'm not sure that anybody I know expresses that fear anymore. But there used to be lots of discussions about moving to Canada or Denmark or some other place when the purges started.

12. CalGal - 8/21/1999 2:59:30 AM

That couldn't have been fun to contemplate.

13. glendajean - 8/21/1999 3:02:41 AM

Irrational. But pre-dated what I think happened because of the 1993 gays in the military debate -- when suddenly people started talking about gay people, a ton more gay folk came out of the closet, and the national dialogue changed somewhat.

Of course, politicians at that time either didn't talk about homosexuality or denounced it.

14. ProfEmeritus - 8/21/1999 12:38:15 PM

Where is the host? We need some ideas here.

Btw Alistair, the newest message button doesn't work on any thread for me.

15. ProfEmeritus - 8/21/1999 12:43:41 PM

My last message didn't post. Or it may appear later.

I won't redo the whole thing, but I will reiterate as a message to the ruling triumvurate that neither the "newest message' or "top of page" work for me on any thread.

16. FreeToChoose - 8/21/1999 1:03:19 PM

ProfE

It isn't just you. Several of the buttons on the left do not work yet. The VCR buttons on the bottom do work, with the additional functionality that they work as refresh buttons when you have reached the latest post.


In an attempt to discuss International, the situation in Turkey sounds like it is very serious. Besides a major death toll, headed for top ten of this century, they are worried about a typhoid (inter alia) outbreak.

17. PelleNilsson - 8/21/1999 10:59:42 PM

Irv,

Maybe this has made its way into your papers, but this from AFP was reported in IHT under the heading East Timor Leader Warns Jakarta of Hacker War

The Nobel peace laureate and East Timorese independent leader Jose Ramos-Horta said Wednesday that Indonesia could face a backlash, including destruction of its computer systems, if it does not assure a fair ballot in East Timor on Aug 30.

He said 100 international computer hackers have prepared "a ferocious campaign" that would bring Indonesia to a standstill.

"We will terminate their banking system. We will invade their sites and destroy them. People will be scared to travel to Indonesia when they know that we are also infecting their air communications".

18. laurence - 8/21/1999 11:01:08 PM

Hey, pelle, have you got a URL or something? They sound like my sort of people. Perhaps I could help.

19. alistairconnor - 8/21/1999 11:01:52 PM

Sorry, that was me again.

20. RickNelson - 8/22/1999 12:33:21 AM

Hells Bells Pelle,

What's up with that? Do those hackers really think they will affect change with destruction of that sort? Also, if they can do that to Indonesia, then what's the new terrorism, well, now we know don't we.

This sort of hacking must be plausable, yet the counter force for it better be in place, ten years ago. I wonder what you in the know can tell?

August 30 is my birthday and if hackers mess up Indonesia on that day, I'll not forget that, nor do I intend to forgive that. If affecting change is desired then help those who are trying to do the job. Email Habbibie for a start, then the U.N. then all the senators, the president, and whomever else. What does anyone think of that? Is mine so inaffective as to be laughable? I would hope not, yet I suppose emails are not yet the answer to affect change, what with screeners checking them first. Kind of analogous to the chap who didn't pass on the impending and current information that Japan was about to attack at Pearl Harbor.


Anyway,
Turkey, prayers to them.

Pakistan and India, well what can anyone in my position say? I'm way to uninformed, except for what bhel and Zaid have said in TT. That my friends is a well informed discussion. The not so long ago links to Chwok were fabulous. Please link them here Marj.

21. testing2 - 8/22/1999 12:35:23 AM

Hi Yo, this is alistair testing...

22. RickNelson - 8/22/1999 12:41:09 AM

Socko,
Are we running the Mote through NZ? My almanac says we are? I think Bali would be 12 + 3, NZ is listed as 12 + 5 so that's why I conclude it's NZ. Oops, well then take into consideration that I'm -2 from Eastern Standard time and that puts it back in Bali. Ok, so I conclude it's Bali.

23. RickNelson - 8/22/1999 12:42:21 AM

Looking good alistair.

24. ProfEmeritus - 8/22/1999 6:02:00 AM

Rick:

Irv explained somewhere that Bali is 12 hours ahead of EDT, and that NZ is 4 hours ahead of Bali; i.e., NZ is 16 hours ahead of EDT, 17 ahead of CDT and 19 ahead of PDT.

25. pellenilsson - 8/22/1999 6:04:45 AM

For the perfect MoteTime Converter go to #1771 in what is now the Party thread.

26. PincherMartin - 8/22/1999 6:23:35 AM

Irv --

Interesting article on the decline of discipline in Japan's educational system. Much ado about nothing, you think?

Japan Fights Classroom Collapse

27. phillipdavid - 8/22/1999 10:12:37 PM

Well, it is not nothing, Pincher. Everybody will have to learn how to adjust -- either to acceptance, or to a way of dealing with the "problem."

``This is a very serious problem,'' says Yutaka Nabeshima, who is
running an Education Ministry study of the phenomenon. ``We haven't
figured out what the root of it is yet.''

28. RickNelson - 8/22/1999 10:27:12 PM

The second I understand, but correlate the first for me please.

29. phillipdavid - 8/22/1999 10:34:58 PM

Rick,

The rebellious, anti-establishment nature of young people's rock and roll has probably seeped into the pop culture. It is a cultural influence.

30. RickNelson - 8/22/1999 10:45:58 PM

Yes, true. No arguement of its influence. Is its proliferation a root cause of the materialism distraction? Are Japanese kids needing Ambercrombie and Finch, Old Navy and all?

Are the references mostly for the street displays? The few times I've read of them, or seen a news spot, the activity seems intense!

Is that the distraction of the reference and which you are describing?

I would imagine the intensity of the mood is a release for some and a downfall for others. It's like the U.S. rock concert mentality I suppose. These distractions might have many correlated affects (thinking out loud).

31. RickNelson - 8/22/1999 10:49:41 PM

Let's add prolific advertising as an effective materialism distractor.

32. PincherMartin - 8/23/1999 3:09:42 AM

Phillip David --

Well, it is not nothing, Pincher. Everybody will have to learn how to adjust -- either to acceptance, or to a way of dealing with the "problem."

I'm sure the article describes a real problem, but given its recent beginnings (I think they said they started to notice the problem just over three years ago) and the excessive fretting Japanese tend to do over how lazy and undisciplined they've become, I'm not sure if the problem is anything to be genuinely concerned about or something that will work itself into the Japanese system in little time at all.



From the article ``This is a very serious problem,'' says Yutaka Nabeshima, who is
running an Education Ministry study of the phenomenon. ``We haven't
figured out what the root of it is yet.''


PD: The root?

Rock and Roll and proliferative materialism.

The kids seemed a little young to me to be heavily influenced by R&R, but materialism may have played a role.

33. stostosto - 8/23/1999 1:25:17 PM

This is a test.

And this is not stostosto.

It's just Irv, taking a new ID out for a test drive after 10 attempts to get our pal sto successfully logged in.

It appears to be working.

Any further posts under this ID will be the real sto.

34. stostosto - 8/24/1999 10:47:19 AM

here is the real sto
giving it one more go
hoping my post will show
- but no

35. stostosto - 8/24/1999 10:47:43 AM

YESSSS!

36. Bubbaette - 8/24/1999 1:04:14 PM

please help me out, you world travelers.

DH's daughter is getting ready to leave next week for a semester in Vietnam. As the date gets closer, the more apprehensive DH gets about his daughter's safety, precautions she should take, etc. Last night I pulled the State Department's post report for Vietnam to give him some background and now he's freaked even worse, what with talk about occasional detainings of tourists, potential fines for carrying c.d.'s and videotapes in to the country, and theives on motor bikes and pedalcabs.

What advice should we give my step daughter (20 years old) and does anyone have any first hand experience travelling in vietnam?

Thanks

37. PincherMartin - 8/24/1999 8:53:49 PM

Bubbaette --

I've never been to Vietnam, but from what I've heard, it's perfectly safe, even for a woman traveler. The Vietnamese are extremely friendly to Americans and usually go out of their way to help out a traveler.

38. RickNelson - 8/24/1999 10:50:24 PM

bubbaette,

I can only speak for referencing trips to Malaysia.

Those were very long flights, but mostly boring.

customs in Malaysia had luggage checks, but relatively short lived. The line is a pain!

I recommend you read international papers for references and then browse the Asia Weekly news.

Check out the new international and CIA links. The later will have a page about Vietnam.

39. Bubbaette - 8/25/1999 12:23:05 AM

Pincher, Rick

Thanks for the reassurance and for the suggestions.

40. PincherMartin - 8/25/1999 2:24:57 AM

Bubbaette --

You might want to ask Irv and Scott Loar if they know anything about traveling to Vietnam. I expect both of them have visited the country (Scott Loar, of course, fought in the Vietnam War, but I imagine he has visited it since) or at the very least know many people who have.

41. stostosto - 8/25/1999 8:59:17 AM

Bubbaette

My sister-in-law went to Vietnam last year with a girlfriend. Two dishy Danish girls at 26. (And "dishy" is an understatement here, I tell you..!). Naturally, the family was quite worried just like your stepdaughter's father is. But it turned out there was absolutely nothing to worry about. Everybody had been friendly, the mood of the place was friendly, and they didn't even hear any stories from other tourists either, whether Americans or Europeans.

Of course, at 20 your stepdaughter is very young, and I can fully empathise with the fatherly concern (I have a daughter myself, even if she's only 3); but that would be the case regardless of where in the world she'd go away for an entire semester. And my impression is that Vietnam is not particularly worrisome - in fact, it's probably less so than many places in Europe or the US.

(But: I must emphasize I am no expert on Vietnam; you will do well to hear ScottLoar, or Irv out if they've been there recently).

42. bloodnfire - 8/25/1999 11:20:48 AM

Bubbaette:
Please e-mail me, and I will give you the e-mail address of a very close friend who has lived in Vietnam for the past six years. He started a business there, married a Vietnamese woman, and is starting a family. He has a wealth of information which I am sure he would be glad to share with you, so you can get an idea of how things really are.

43. IrvingSnodgrass - 8/25/1999 11:22:14 AM

Sheesh. Why did that happen? This isn't bloodnfire! This is Irv (although I helped Bloodnfire check out his ID earlier). The creen clearly said I was posting as Irv.

Let me try that post again...

44. IrvingSnodgrass - 8/25/1999 11:23:36 AM

make that the screen.

Bubbaette:
Please e-mail me, and I will give you the e-mail address of a very close friend who has lived in Vietnam for the past six years. He started a business there, married a Vietnamese woman, and is starting a family. He has a wealth of information which I am sure he would be glad to share with you, so you can get an idea of how things really are.

(Sorry about the wrong ID)

45. Bubbaette - 8/25/1999 11:51:25 AM

Thanks Irv

I sent an e-mail to your Fray address. Is that still working?

46. IrvingSnodgrass - 8/25/1999 12:20:18 PM

Bubba:
Indeed it is, and I have responded.

The the-fray.com address will remain functional for the foreseeable future.

47. cmboyce - 8/25/1999 1:27:45 PM

A curious query of the Mote's Asia travelers: Today's South China Post, covering the crash of a China Airlines
jet at the city's Chek Lap Kok Airport Sunday, quotes "...one
passenger, a former New York policeman: 'I heard rescue teams
talking on walkie-talkies directing people to come to help. It
sounded like they were not familiar with the airport.' "

My question is: Was this guy just extrapolating from tones of voice, or is English the language of the local emergency workers? If so, why? I know the language of pilots and towers is English, but I'd have thought ambulance drivers, etc, would speak Chinese (Cantonese?).

48. IrvingSnodgrass - 8/25/1999 1:39:31 PM

cm:
Perhaps he was a Cantonese-speaking NYC policeman? I would imagine there are some. Your question is a good one.

49. cmboyce - 8/25/1999 1:44:19 PM

Hadn't thought of that, Irv. You're right, there must be, and that well might be it.

50. stostosto - 8/26/1999 5:14:36 PM

Where is bhelpurimarjoribanks? I wouldn't have thought him this slow to show up. I am worried. Has something happened to him?

51. stostosto - 8/26/1999 5:16:55 PM

And now I am at it: How about RustlerPike? Someone mentioned that he'd been trying to get in here - but that's a while ago. So why hasn't he arrived yet?

52. stostosto - 8/26/1999 5:20:00 PM

And now I am still at it: What about Mr. mschindler of Spruce Grove, Alberta, Canada? Or the Tamil we had briefly in the last week of TWWWPSæakd?

53. stostosto - 8/26/1999 5:22:30 PM

Sorry if I seem impatient. But I think this playground is so fine already - so why aren't all my pals here to play with me?

54. alistairconnor - 8/26/1999 5:29:20 PM

Sto - I'm delighted to see you, I believe you were kept out for a while by what I suspect was a browser-specific bug, for which I apologise. What particular browser do you use?

The puzzling thing is that 109109 was the only other person locked out by that bug. I just wonder what he was doing with a Danish version of IE 2.01 or whatever?

55. alistairconnor - 8/26/1999 5:30:14 PM

I think Marj is in England, and he's unreliable about checking and returning e-mails at the best of times. Perhaps someone else has more reliable information?

56. stostosto - 8/27/1999 9:32:37 AM

alistairconnor
My browser is IE, Version 3.02. That's at my job. But I think I had the same problem at home with an IE 5 browser - but I am not sure.

57. stostosto - 8/27/1999 9:32:41 AM

alistairconnor
My browser is IE, Version 3.02. That's at my job. But I think I had the same problem at home with an IE 5 browser - but I am not sure.

58. stostosto - 8/27/1999 9:33:16 AM

That's odd. I only posted that once. Honestly!

59. alistairconnor - 8/27/1999 9:39:53 AM

Don't touch that Refresh button!

60. Bubbaette - 8/27/1999 9:40:32 AM

Sto

If you hit refresh after you post, you will automatically post again. Instead, go to "List all Threads" and come back in order to refresh. I'm sure the cabal will have this bug fixed by and by.

61. alistairconnor - 8/27/1999 9:45:38 AM

Not a bug. Just use the "Go to most recent message" button. That will refresh.

62. ChristinO - 8/27/1999 2:23:50 PM

Rustler,

You here yet? I don't know what else to say on the matter. I think the kid is a piece of shit. I can't even begin to comprehend how his family must feel but I'm in no position to judge them for trying to protect their child even as bad as he is. I don't see that Israel had any choice but to declare him a citizen if that's what their law says. The law cannot just be changed overnight because you hit a particularly nasty glitch, but at least this situation has possibly shown a way to strengthen and improve the law.

63. RustlerPike - 8/27/1999 2:25:15 PM

Anyhow - CalGal, the fuss about the non-extradition is old news. The newer fuss is that he was given a relatively light sentence, by American standards. Also - it seems the whole thing was leaked by the American prosecutors, after they had been told, confidentially, of the Israeli decision to plea bargain.

But what I read here is that this plea was agreed to because the guy's accomplice is dead, so it would have been hard to prove which of the two bastards did the actual killing (Scheinbein 'only' admits to dismembering the body). And apparently, 24 years is pretty much the harshest sentence you can get here for any single crime (according to what I've read).

64. RustlerPike - 8/27/1999 2:27:09 PM

Chris:

If what I heard is true, the law has already been changed to prevent these things happening, but the glitch here was that the scuzzwad was a minor when he committed the offense.

65. ChristinO - 8/27/1999 2:31:03 PM

Rustler,

The kid is 17 years old. He's going to prison for at least 16 years. That's nearly the whole of his life to date and possibly longer. I can't look at that and say it's nothing. I think the problem comes because many people want some kind of equivalency: take a life? Lose your life or enough of it so that you have nothing anyway.

My problem with this is that there is no such thing as equivalency. It cannot be attained and therefore to desire it is pointless and to rage after it is a waste of time and energy.

66. ChristinO - 8/27/1999 2:35:17 PM

Of course I'm probably not the best person to talk to about sentencing. I'm disgusted by the crime and can't understand how anyone could do something like this to another human being but I try to imagine what 16 years or 30 years or even 2 years in prison is like and no matter what people say I can't see that it's just some routine, mundane thing to get through.

Ask me what I wanted to do to the rapist that chopped off his victims arms who was recently released----he served less than 10 years. I get so angry and so sick over it.

67. RustlerPike - 8/27/1999 3:17:14 PM

CO: yeah. One of the guys at my workplace was downloading snuff films from the Internet the other day. I was shown one - a guy getting his hand chopped off in Saudi - and it made me real sick. I told the bastard to quit downloading the crap. I hate sadism more than anything.

68. CalGal - 8/27/1999 3:18:18 PM

Anyhow - CalGal, the fuss about the non-extradition is old news.

Not at all. The outrage over the light sentence is directly linked to the original non-extradition.

69. RustlerPike - 8/27/1999 3:29:24 PM

CG: Oh well. Whatever. If there's no reason to think the sentence was too light, there's no reason to get angry again.

70. CalGal - 8/27/1999 3:50:42 PM

Right, but the whole point is that the US was dependent on some other country's version of justice--for a crime that was committed here. It is untenable, which is why the fuss. If the kid had been given an appropriately severe penalty, the feeling would be more "Well, despite their bullshit law, an appropriate penalty was meted out." The obstacle to justice was overcome--basically by luck. The anger would still be there, since the obstacle is considered to be objectionable.

The fact that the obstacle actually obstructed what an appropriate sentence just renews the outrage. If he'd been given a light sentence over here, at least the laws of this land would have been used.

71. ChristinO - 8/27/1999 3:55:55 PM

Does the US extradite its citizens to other countries? I know there are or at least were countries that wouldn't extradite anyone citizen or not, but how many countries actually extradite their own citizens? I'd be curious to find that Israel is the only one that doesn't.

72. ChristinO - 8/27/1999 4:13:55 PM

CG,

Think of it this way: Remember the outrage over the caning of the American graffit bandit in Singapore?

We've had two mainstream movies with big-name stars in the past year and a half dealing with the issue of Americans who fall afoul of drug laws in Thailand and Malaysia.

Granted the situation is a bit different since there was no question of actual citizenship, but the fact remains that had we been able to extract these people without warfare we would have done so.

The Israeli court originally decreed that Sheinbein was not a citizen because he had not ever previously expressed interest in his status, but the lawyer for the defense brought up an extremely sound issue on appeal: that no other country in the world has such a conditional citizenship. So on appeal the decision was overturned. It had nothing to do with Israel not wanting to extradite the animal and everything to do with following the laws that were currently in place.


I think it's also important to note that extraditing Sheinbein to the US would not neccessarily have guaranteed him a stronger sentence. It's no guarantee that he would have been found guilty of anything more than mutilating a corpse. Now all of America apparently believes him guilty of murder, but there has been no trial and is not likely to be one so I find the assumption of many of these people that he would have "fried" if he'd been returned to us just a little fanatical.

People were deprived of what they believed was their right: to execute Sheinbein for murder. I would imagine that outrage over a blow to US dignity or sovereignty is secondary at best and mostly just a smoke screen for thwarted vengeance.

73. CalGal - 8/27/1999 4:29:46 PM

I think it's also important to note that extraditing Sheinbein to the US would not neccessarily have guaranteed him a stronger sentence.

As I said, the lightness or heaviness of his sentence is only secondary. The fact that people are upset and think he should be fried is also largely irrelevant. I'm just pointing out that the real upset is due to the fact that the guy was an American citizen who used an accident of birth and a convenient Israeli law to bypass the American justice system--and that the Israelis let him. (BTW, you are ignoring the fact that Israel's citizenship law is entirely different from anywhere else, and that difference is at the heart of the matter--You're Jewish? You're in.)

Whether or not he would have done better, deserved more, and so on is not at the root of the outrage. No matter what people say.

American citizens who break the laws in other country have nothing to do with this situation.

. I would imagine that outrage over a blow to US dignity or sovereignty is secondary at best and mostly just a smoke screen for thwarted vengeance.

You've misstated it. The guy made a travesty out of an Israeli law and the Israelis let him by allowing him to escape US justice. It's not about US dignity or sovereignity. It's about Israel's. And, to be fair, they know it. That's why they changed their law, because this guy made them look like the pawns they were.

74. ChristinO - 8/27/1999 4:48:39 PM

I'm aware of Israel's citizenship policy allowing all Jews to claim citizenship, but Sheinbein did not claim citizenship through that policy. Sheibein's citizenship follows the same line as children born to English citizens of Hong Kong or Barbados. Even American children born abroad can claim US citizenshipt through their parents. Sheinbein's claim is one of birth to parents who were born and lived in Israel before coming to the US.

If his only claim was through his Jewishness then I'd be more inclined to agree, but it is not.

75. RustlerPike - 8/28/1999 2:11:10 AM

Chris is right, though I admit I haven't been following the story in great detail. as for Israel's citizenship law being different from anywhere else: I'm not sure it is. I think the Germans - after WW2 - used ethnicity as a criterion for giving citizenship to Germans who had been living in areas of Germany that were taken over by the Poles, etc. (however - I could be totally wrong about that, please don't lynch me if I am).

In any case, it's not that we are more racist than anyone else, imho - Israel's citizenship law is unique, but so is its situation: a country for a nation of people that were country-less for 1800 years, and were scattered all over the globe. The way I see it, when you say 'Jew' you are saying 'a descendant of the people of Judea'. So in a way, a modern American Jew gets Israeli citizenship because his great-great-great (etc.) grandparents were 'citizens' of Judea, and this 'citizenship' was kept intact over the generations by the Jewish religion's laws of Jewishness (matrilineal descent, basically).

By giving the Jews all over the world a right to become Israeli citizens you are granting them a special privilege, true. But if you deny them this right, you are placing them in a situation of special disadvantage, imo. Most other ethnic minorities (excepting those in the US, which is a special case) have a homeland they can conceivably go back to, perhaps even tell which village or town their grandparents hail from. Jews don't.

76. msgreer - 8/28/1999 2:26:24 AM

RustlerPike

I agree with your post #75.

I am Jewish and maybe it takes being Jewish to understand the importance for Jews to know they have a place to go.

My father made all me and my 4 sisters always have our passports in order... even at a young age. He put away money in a safe deposit box for each of us. I am saying 5 different security boxes.

His feeling was "it could happen again and don't forget it. if we have to we will all meet in Israel".

This comes from a man who last 90% of his family in the Holocaust.

He got away because a non-Jewish family took him out of Poland and got him to the United States which was no easy task at the time.

I can understand why he did what he did.

As a girl growing up the friends he had who lived through the Holocaust found their way to Israel or the US. The ones I met who came to the US all had numbers on their arms. I remember being horrified and scared as a young girl when I saw the markings on their arms.

ChristinO

I do know Mexico will not extradite one of its citizens to the US if they maybe facing the death penalty.

There is a big case in my city where a man who lived in TX. but was a Mexican killed a women in my city and fled to Mexico.

This community wanted this man very badly.

It turned out he was hired by the woman's ex-husband to kill her. He had 3 other men helping him. They were found in TX. and got sent back here immediately.

In order to get the guy who fled to Mexico the Justice Department got involved. It took close to year to get him back here. But a deal had been struck. He would never get the death penalty. If he is found guilty he can spend the rest of his life in jail but will never visit our infamous electric chair.

77. CalGal - 8/28/1999 2:34:29 AM

I don't recall using the word racist. And, as I mentioned earlier (in the other thread), there are many emotionally compelling reasons for the Israelis to have the law. I'm not criticizing the law. I'm just pointing out that this guy made the Israelis pawns because they accept all comers, due to that law.

Incidentally, his father was not born in Israel, but in Palestine, when it was under British rule--which makes it even more ridiculous, somehow.

The target of U.S. anger is not the Israeli legal system that gave him this ridiculously light sentence (this particular murder was just "practice" for his "real" murder). The anger is rooted in the fact that this monster used another country to escape US justice. Most Americans know that satisfactory trials aren't always the outcome here, either.

The Israelis, apparently, agree with this. They changed the law so that they don't get used again.

78. RustlerPike - 8/28/1999 2:48:47 AM

CalGal:

Like I said, people rarely ever get more than what Scheinbein got in an Israeli court, for any single offense (so I understand). And if the prosecution had been unable to prove murder, he wouldn't have even gotten that. Let's just hope he gets buttfucked a lot.

79. msgreer - 8/28/1999 2:56:33 AM

CalGal

I hope you did not take my post to mean I felt this young man had a case in declaring Israeli citizenship.

As you said Israel changed its laws so this can't happen again.

I was speaking of Jews who live with the reality that at any given moment in time Jews can get blamed for the ills of a country. And people will believe it again.

It is under those conditions that make Jewish people feel vulnerable.

It would be foolish to think there is not another Hitler out there.

Even now when it comes to failurs in the economic stability of a country the comments come out which suggests "it is the Jews again".

I don't spend alot of time thinking about it but I know it is out there. To believe anti-semetism does not exist throughout the world is just pure ignorance.

I know my father and mother begged me not to put my entire name on my passport because it looked like and sounded like a Jewish name. They said why invite trouble? And then a TWA airplane was hijacked afew years ago and all passports were collected. The hijackers told the flight attendant to go through each one and pick out the ones with Jewish names on it. Granted nothing happen to the Jewish folks on that flight but it was a damned scary story to all Jews everywhere.

Then there was the time a cruise ship was hijacked. The hijackers shot a Jewish man in a wheelchair and through him overboard. There story was he died of a heart attack. The problem with that story was this mans body washed ashore. He had several bullets in his head. The autopsy showed he did not have a heart attack but was killed in cold blood and thrown overboard.

Jewish people hear horrible anti-semetic remarks all the time. I know I do.

The prejudice is alive and well. And it doesn't feel good.

80. pellenilsson - 8/28/1999 3:57:39 AM

Sweden does not extradite its citizens. If they have committed a crime abroad which is punishable under Swedish law they can be tried in Sweden in the presence of prosecutors from the other country. Sweden also does not extradite foreign citizens if they have committed a crime that could incur the death penalty.

Rustler is right about German citizenship laws. Ethnic Germans get automatic citizenship. That was the case with the so called Volga Germans who came from the Soviet Union. Many of them didn't speak German. The same goes for the German communities in Rumania and elsewhere.

81. pellenilsson - 8/28/1999 5:57:58 AM

Here are some first impressions from Mozambique.

Maputo looks like the archetypical third world city. The buildings, even rather new ones, are a bit dilapidated. The streets are full of loopholes. There is a lot of pedestrian traffic due to a lack of public transport and lack of money to pay for rides on the privately operated mini-bus routes. They drive on the left here, which creates some problems for me. A factoid that you are not likely to know is that in Sweden, we too drove on the left until 1967. But we did it in cars that had the steering wheel on the left. So it is not the left-hand driving per se that troubles me, but doing it with the steering wheel on the right side. The controls (except the pedals) are reversed too. I constantly find myself turning on the wipers when I want to indicate a turn, and hitting the window handle when I want to change gear. I solved the latter difficulty by putting the car in second gear at the start and never shift, although today I became adventurous and actually had it in third gear a couple of times. The traffic is rather light and driving habits are quite gentle, but complicated situations seem to develop all the time.

Mozambique is a poor country. The legal minimum wage was recently increased from $28 to $34 per month. Something like 70% of the population live in rural areas. The majority of them are subsistence farmers who are not at all connected to the monetary economy. They walk to the market once a week and barter for the necessities they cannot produce themselves.

The country is also recovering from a long and bloody civil war which started when the Salazar regime in Portugal collapsed in the early 1970’s. The ‘revolutionaries’ simply abandoned Angola and Mozambique. Marxist-type parties took power in both countries and civil wars broke out.

82. pellenilsson - 8/28/1999 5:59:46 AM

The insurgents were supported by South Africa and, in the case of Angola, by the US. (Wasn’t that chap Sawimbi shown strutting around at Reagan’s side once?) With the ending of white rule in South Africa, the war in Mozambique ended too, because there wasn’t really anything to fight about. In Angola there is – diamonds and oil – and there the war continues.

Nowadays Mozambique has an elected parliament with new elections due in December. Marxism is long gone; liberalisation and privatisation are the buzz words of today. But the heritage lives on. Today I did some shopping on Avenida Vladimir Lenin and on my way there I crossed Avenida Ho Chi Minh.

Mozambique’s major export commodity is hydroelectric power to South Africa from a huge plant on the Zambezi river. It is a bit ironic then, that most of the rural areas here lack power, a major disadvantage when it comes to building a telecommunications infrastructure. Solar power is feasible but expensive.

The official language here is Portuguese. There are said to be several indigenous languages but I have no information on them. Our absent host might be interested to know that there is a not insignificant community of Goan origin. The Director General of the monopoly telecom operator is one of them. His surname is Fernandez, which is said to be a reliable indicator of Goan ancestry.

83. RustlerPike - 8/28/1999 7:47:28 AM

MSGreer:

If you feel so strongly about it why not come live in Israel?

84. IrvingSnodgrass - 8/28/1999 7:48:39 AM

Pelle:
Thanks for the update on Maputo, a city I don't think I have ever read about or seen pictures of. You paint a very vivid picture, and it is much appreciated. It sounds very similar to third-world cities I know in a very different part of the world (except for the gentle driving).

Please treat us to your further observations while in Maputo. By the way, I have a hard time imagining streets full of loopholes. Is that a kind of bureaucratic pothole?

85. msgreer - 8/28/1999 9:56:56 AM

RustlerPike

I have given alot of thought about moving to Israel. I believe I will move to Israel one day.

However I have a mother who lives a block away from me who needs alot of help and support at the moment. I would never leave her now.

I also have a mentally challenged daughter who lives in a residency for the adult mentally challenged outside of Boston.

But one day we will meet in Israel.

86. stostosto - 8/28/1999 6:07:38 PM

pelle
Thanks for the report. I am curious: Is your presence there pure Ericsson business, or is it funded by UN or SIDA? (And for how long can the Swedish development aid agency continue to have a name which means AIDS in French?)

87. Dusty - 8/28/1999 6:17:08 PM

pellenilsson

Thanks for the impressions from Mozambique.

A factoid that you are not likely to know is that in Sweden, we too drove on the left until 1967.

I not only knew this, I remember it. I was fascinated that they would do this, and it is a moderately important issue when discussing path dependence (we'll see if that smokes S&M out), although that thought hadn't occurred to me until just now.

I believe they had a day in-between the conversion, partly to allow the roads department to change lots of signs, and also to get people to think about the change-over. I'm sure there must be stories about absent-minded people who forgot, but I don't recall reading any of those stories.

88. Dusty - 8/28/1999 6:20:12 PM

I was a bit cryptic. On the in-between day, no one was allowed to drive (except, I presume, road crews) I assume they declared it a public holiday, which probably qualifies it as some sort of trivia. (what's the most unusual reason for a public hoiday in a major country.)

89. SpenceMirrlees - 8/28/1999 7:09:01 PM

"it is a moderately important issue when discussing path dependence"

Offers some corroboration for the idea that changing paths in the presence of network externalities requires some planned intervention.

Surely it's not definitive, but let's put it this way: the posterior on whether planned intervention is necessary, given that it was used, has got to be bigger than the prior.

Maybe not much bigger, beause lord knows the Swedes would've probably used planned intervention even if it wasn't necessary.

90. ProfEmeritus - 8/28/1999 11:38:27 PM

Well, irv isn't the only famous person to be in Jakarta. Paul Krugman is also there, sounding off on the Indonesian and other Asian economies. He believes Indonesian has not yet turned the corner toward recovery. He points to several major unresolved problem: the failure to deal with the large corporate debt to foreigners, the failure to restore the banking system to meet the credit needs of a recovering economy, the persistence of corruption and cronyism as shown by the recent Bali Bank debacle in which $80 million was illegally tranferred to Habibie's Golkar party (a move that both the IMF and the World Bank have stronly criticized), and the continuing political uncertainty, pending the November parliamentary selection of the new president. There is nothing new in these observations; Krugman is a good listener. He might have added the problem of violence in East Timor leading up to Monday's vote on independence or continued association with Indonesia under a grant of greater autonomy.

91. alistairconnor - 8/29/1999 12:22:49 AM

That vote is giving me cold sweat. The pro-jakarta bandits have already announced

92. alistairconnor - 8/29/1999 12:30:33 AM

... that if they lose, but not by much (i.e. if only 60 or 70% vote for full independence) they will launch a full-scale civil war. And they seem to be running round the streets of Dili with automatic weapons shooting people while the police look on.

In spite of this and their systematic attempts to obstruct voter registration (armed intimidation of both villagers and UN voter registration teams), I have little doubt that there will be 80-90% for independence. Those people have been fighting for it for too long to abandon it now, never mind whether the country is economically viable or not.

But there will probably be a bloodbath anyway, given the attitude of the Indonesian military, police and government.

93. pellenilsson - 8/29/1999 3:49:12 AM

Irv

I have a hard time imagining streets full of loopholes.

That is pure Freud. When I wrote that post I had just finished reading a draft of the new Telecommunication Law.

Dusty

On the in-between day, no one was allowed to drive (except, I presume, road crews) I assume they declared it a public holiday, which probably qualifies it as some sort of trivia.

You seriously underestimate Swedish efficiency. On the change-over night traffic was closed from 1 a.m. to 5 a.m.

sto

And for how long can the Swedish development aid agency continue to have a name which means AIDS in French?

Well it doesn't mean AIDS in French, it is AIDS, although I suppose that's what you meant. Agence Internationale de Developpement (sp?) Suedoise. I really don't know why they keep it. SIDA is also confused with CIDA, the Canadian agency.

I don't work for Ericsson but for a consulting subsidiary of Telia. Here in Mocambique we have a subsidiary company jointly owned by us and Telecommumicações do Moçambique. We are 13 people here right now, about half on long-term assignments.

94. joezan - 8/29/1999 10:21:59 AM

SIDA is AIDS in Spanish...

95. stostosto - 8/29/1999 5:41:50 PM

pelle

I didn't know that SIDA is AIDS in French. I just happened to know that AIDS is SIDA in French, thus SIDA means AIDS in French. (SIDA betyder AIDS på franska). (Probably something like Syndrome Immune Déffèt Acquiré).

And according to joezan also in Spanish. Perhaps even in Portuguese?

That means that the agency goes by this somewhat burdened name in many of the countries in which it operates. It just struck me as a possible PR drawback...

96. stostosto - 8/29/1999 5:49:14 PM

pelle

Re the Swedish transition to right side driving:

I think I've read somewhere that it was managed by Olof Palme who was minister of traffic at the time, and that he scored a big political success by that.

I also seem to remember that there was not a single death accident as a result of the transition. I was only three years old at the time myself, but I remember my father being very fascinated by the smoothness and effective handling of the event.

(Of course, this memory doesn't date back to 1967 but perhaps 1974, attesting to the lingering impression it left on my dad).

97. DanDillon - 8/29/1999 6:37:29 PM

SIDA is AIDS in French and Spanish, though I'm not certain about Portuguese. SIDA is also used in many countries that are colonized by the French or Spanish or were so within the last several decades. The lingering language of the colonizers has had a profound enough effect on the colony's native language(s) for SIDA to remain a borrowing.

98. joezan - 8/29/1999 8:00:40 PM

sto:

I also seem to remember that there was not a single death accident as
a result of the transition.

Musta been all them Volvos...

99. dusty - 8/29/1999 8:34:10 PM

pellenilsson

You seriously underestimate Swedish efficiency. On the change-over night traffic was closed from 1 a.m. to 5 a.m.

Cool. I remembered that they had a change-over period, but I apparently assumed it was a whole day.

S&M

yes, it is some corroboration for the need for intervention. However, it is also corroboration for the notion that path dependence can be overcome.

let's put it this way: the posterior on the expected cost of a path dependence now has a lower mean than the prior, given that it was used successfully.

100. pellenilsson - 8/30/1999 6:53:42 AM

A centennial sitting for the taking.

So to clarify AIDS and SIDA.

The Swedish agency is SIDA in English and AIDS in French.

The illness is AIDS in English and SIDA in French.

As simple as that. No chance of misunderstandings.

101. alistairconnor - 8/30/1999 6:59:46 AM

Pelle : Try going to the Profile page, then enter your time zone. Then come back here.

(Link in yellow bar, "Edit your profile data")

102. pellenilsson - 8/30/1999 7:38:19 AM

That's lovely Alistair but by my watch it is 1:34 p.m here.

103. alistairconnor - 8/30/1999 7:41:03 AM

yes, Pelle, but what does your post say? i.e. does the timestamp correspond to your watch or not?

i.e. did the correction you entered with respect to GMT result in your getting the correct time?

(I am absolutely hopeless with time zones. They make my head spin.)

104. pellenilsson - 8/30/1999 7:44:45 AM

It is correct now. Very nice feature!

105. alistairconnor - 8/30/1999 7:46:44 AM

Well, with that, my friend, good night... 11.41 pm here, and flying to Tauranga tomorrow.

106. RustlerPike - 8/30/1999 9:55:33 AM

MsGreer:

It would be great if you did move out here. I imagine you've been to Israel?

107. RustlerPike - 8/30/1999 9:57:12 AM

Pelle:

You work for Ericsson? Their representative has had to leave Israel after his wife made an ugly anti-Jewish remark.

108. Dusty - 8/30/1999 10:00:39 AM

ProfEmeritus


I've been dismayed by the reports of pre-election violence. But it sounds like election day has been calmer.


On a related note, I saw reference to polling places outside the country. Is this common?

US citizens living outside the country can vote, but by absentee ballot, requiring mailing. I hadn't heard of polling places outside a country.

109. ProfEmeritus - 8/30/1999 10:30:14 AM

Dusty

Those external polling places are rare and reserved for special situations. In East Timor's case because the population has become dispersed because of local violence over the past two decades.

110. IrvingSnodgrass - 8/30/1999 11:25:59 AM

Dusty:
Indonesia had polling stations at embassies throughout the world for the June vote as well, so it is not unusual here.

111. RustlerPike - 8/30/1999 2:24:10 PM

MsGreer:

Maybe I should explain: I think we Jews basically belong in Jew-land: Israel. I read somewhere that 40% of senior partners in US law firms are Jews. If this is true, I can understand a lot of resentment building up against the Jews, even if they (the Jews) are doing nothing wrong. If there was a 3% minority group in Israel - say, the Druze - who were about 1/3 of the lawyers and doctors, I can see how that would create serious resentment. I figure - whoever feels any kind of clear Jewish identity should come over here. Whoever doesn't is probably better off assimilating and giving up on his Jewishness. I think the days of the Diaspora Jew are almost over.

112. SpenceMirrlees - 8/30/1999 4:23:13 PM

Dusty:

whoever said that path dependence can't be overcome?

113. JonesAtLaw - 8/30/1999 9:55:14 PM

Rustler- I would be quite surprised to find that even 30 percent of senior partners were Jews. It is true that there is an over representation of Jews in professions compared to the population, but nothing as extreme as you assume. It may be true that a large portion of senior partners in New York are Jews, given the much larger population there, but even so it is not as extreme as you suppose.

114. pellenilsson - 8/31/1999 6:55:16 AM

Rustler

If you had read a few posts back you would have known that I don't work for Ericsson but for Telia, the dominant telecom operator in Sweden.

It's always bad taste to make hostile remarks about the people in one's host country, but I guess Israel is a singlarly ill-chosen country to do it in. Was it at some public or semi-public occasion?

115. RustlerPike - 8/31/1999 7:31:13 AM

Pelle:

Sorry for thinking you worked for Ericsson. Anyhow, the story was she was at some kind of horse ranch where she kept her horse, and she thought someone had stolen her stirrups or something (something small which is apparently no big deal anyways). Then she apparently started going off at the mouth about the Jews all being liars and manipulators, and concluded with 'it's too bad Hitler didn't finish the job'. That's whatthe workers on theranch say, anyway. Ericsson, it seems, believes them.

116. stostosto - 8/31/1999 10:13:20 AM

Rustler

That story is hard to believe. Not only is the woman a stinking ugly racist. She is also stupid beyond any conceivable limit.

117. RustlerPike - 8/31/1999 2:05:38 PM

sto3: yeah, and/or she has a serious problem of some sort.

118. cmboyce - 8/31/1999 6:44:42 PM

The Indonesian militias in East Timor appear to have declared war on the United Nations.

119. alistairconnor - 9/1/1999 5:29:06 AM

A bloodbath is looking more and more likely. Though the voting itself went beautifully, and the count will undoubtedly give a huge majority for independance, the militias are apparently planning on mayhem.

Who pays these people? Who gives them their guns?

The local military don't seem to be taking orders from Jakarta - or rather, in some places they are maintaining law and order, and in others they are looking on as the militias run amok.

A UN peacekeeping force is urgently needed, and won't happen - these things take months. Australia, New Zealand and others have troops on standby, but they need the consent of Indonesia to step in.

A fascinating drama is going to be played out next week in Auckland, my home town, at the APEC summit. The Indonesian president and foreign minister will be there, and possibly also Wiranto, the head of the military. I hope he is. He is undoubtedly the decider.
The other governments will try to pressure Indonesia into stopping the bloodshed - and that means foreign troops. The results of the referendum will be known by then.

120. RustlerPike - 9/1/1999 6:12:45 AM

JonesatLaw:

30% is still about 10 times the proportion of Jews in the general population. I wonder if there is any way to get at reliable stats.

121. pellenilsson - 9/1/1999 6:44:15 AM

Rustler

I didn't get the opportunity to respond yesterday. Your short description of events make me understand that the woman belongs to a particular category of expatriates which I always do my best to keep away from. They usually come from a middle class background and happen to get a well-paid senior position abroad. Their heads swell and they start doing things they would not do at home such as playing golf, going for horse-back riding, perhaps having a servant or two around the house. They aspire to be 'fine' people, but their manners often don't match their pretensions. I have observed this in Swedes but I guess it happens to other nationals too.

122. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/1/1999 7:47:01 AM

alistair:
Who pays these people? Who gives them their guns?

Evidently, it's elements of the Indonesian military who are either a) no longer taking their orders from Jakarta, or b) are still taking orders from Jakarta and Jakarta is denying it. Could be either.

The militias need to be squashed, and only an outside force will be able to do that. Until then, the referendum is meaningless.

Personally, I find it hard to believe that Wiranto would put up with rogue elements, and I have a strong feeling that this comes from the top. The Indonesian military is completely unwilling to admit it made a mistake 24 years ago, and I just can't see them peacefully letting East Timor go. If they leave the militias behind (and continue to support them), they can claim that East Timor was not ready for independence, that a significant portion of the people wanted to stay with Indonesia and are fighting for it, etc. Without Indonesian military support, the militias wouldn't even exist. They are an intentionally planted booby trap designed to screw up any transition process. What they are missing (along with the fact that the international community isn't buying it, and the Indonesian press isn't allowing them to get away with it) is the fact that a vast majority of the Indonesian people are sick of East Timor and would love to be rid of it. If you held a referendum in Indonesia on East Timor, independence for the half-island would win by an even larger majority than it will in East Timor itself.

123. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/1/1999 7:54:00 AM

I find it fascinating that Xanana Gusmão is an admired and liked media star in Indonesia, despite the fact that he is still serving a jail sentence for his guerilla campaign against the Indonesian military. This says a lot about the public's current feelings about the military, and East Timor, too, for that matter. Xanana is very charismatic, and has strong support among Indonesians of all stripes. He's due to be released from house arrest next week. Things will get even more interesting then.

124. ProfEmeritus - 9/1/1999 11:40:33 AM

Irv

Did you see the analysis by Professor George J. Aditjondro in the Sydney Morning Herald a few weeks ago? He argues that the Indonesian military supports the militia because the military leadership are all involved in the profits from Suhartos's extensive business interest in TimTim. If his information is correct it explains a lot. All the current and former military officers, as well as the civilian leaders were involved in the Suharto stranglehold of the economy. The details Aditjondron provides are shocking.

Aditjondro in a Lecturer in Sociology and Anthropology at the University of Newcastle. Let me know if you would like an email copy of his long article.

125. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/1/1999 12:08:58 PM

ProfE:
No, I missed the article, though if it came off the mailing list we're both on, I may have a copy around.

Aditjondro's correct position is "Professor of Corruption Studies," as his usual bio puts it. No one is more knowledgeable about the excesses of the Suharto era (and the Habibie era, for that matter). His book detailing the corruption of the Suharto and Habibie families has been a bestseller here for nearly a year. So, if that's his take on the military in East Timor, I'm quite sure he's right.

126. RustlerPike - 9/1/1999 2:55:33 PM

Pelle:

Well, it (the uppity expatriate syndrome) happens to Israelis too, unfortunately, but mostly when stationed in third world countries. Maybe to high-paid Swedes Israel seems like a levantine, poor country? I really don't know. I doubt they could afford Israeli servants though. Maybe an illegal alien from Ghana or the Philippines.

Btw, in my capacity as copywriter I write brochures for Cellcom, Israel's leading cellular company (serving 1,300,000 clients!). We do stuff for Nokia and Ericsson too, seeing as Cellcom markets their phones. Orange has made an impressive entrance into the cellular market here, and has 200 thousand clients. The third cellular provider, Pelephone, has 900 thousand. This is out of a total population of about 6 million! What a crazy country.

127. cmboyce - 9/2/1999 10:12:41 AM

Irv or ProfE: a question perhaps more appropriate to the Language thread, but pertinent here and quickly enough disposed of:

is "Aditjondro" etymologically "Alexander"? And if so, in what language? Is Professor A. an Indonesian?

128. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/2/1999 10:31:24 AM

cm:
No, Aditjondro is not an Indonesian form of any Western name. Prof. George Aditjondro is an Indonesian of Chinese descent. His name is from Javanese, and ultimately from Sanskrit (where it is usually Romanized as "Chandra").

129. alistairconnor - 9/3/1999 12:01:36 AM

Thanks, ProfE. The corruption angle clears up the military's attitude completely. I presume though that it must involve the local commanders on an individual basis, in order to explain the fact that some are doing their job and some not.

Now, the question is whether Habibie genuinely wants a relatively peaceful transition to independance, and whether Wiranto is prepared to countenance it.
If not, Indonesia is heading for a major and on-going international embarassment, which will certainly poison the existence of the incoming president. Perhaps that's all part of the plan.

I've seen news reports that Javanese immigrants are leaving East Timor by the busload, fearful of a backlash against them. I suspect that this is a psychosis fostered by the militias rather than a legitimate worry, and will make life extremely difficult for an independent East Timor, as the immigrants apparently hold all the key administrative and economic positions.

130. cmboyce - 9/3/1999 12:36:31 AM

Looking ahead, and supposing an independent East Timor comes to be, I would imagine that the technocrats et al would come back. A job market's a strong attraction.

OTOH, if there is not to be an independent East Timor, it will be because the place has been rendered too hellish to survive anyway, by the army and the militias. Of course, there's a beyond beyond that, but in it, the economic health and/or morale of Timorians would presumeably be of no interest to its government.

I honestly wonder if there is any likelihood at all of anything but that last eventuality eventuating. One would hope such an outcome would make Indonesia a pariah, like Iraq, but for the unfairness to the majority of Indonesians who'd gladly cut East Timor loose. But in any case, it won't. The fourth most populous country is much too important to superpower politics and global marketing to be slapped. But the process (of forcibly holding East Timor) may exhaust Indonesia to the point that the recent reforms would lose their momentum. I'm not sure they haven't; it doesn't look to me as though the legislature is going to be lost to the Suharto-Habibie old-boy network, Megawati government or no.

Perhaps some future government could undo the damage this fit of possessiveness on the part of the old boys is doing, but one supposes it would have to be a truly democratically elected one with nothing to gain from wringing out the Timorians, and I fear not only for East Timor in this mess, but for the prospect that genuine democracy can take hold.

Does this frustrated screed make any sense?

131. RustlerPike - 9/3/1999 6:18:10 AM

I'm interested in Pelle, sto's and other Europeans' angle on this great little piece on a wonderful little man; and also about Swiss banks, Swiss society, and the Holocaust. I'd like to hear your takes on Meili's theory about Switzerland never having undergone 'de-Nazification'.

I wonder why it is that the Jews get such a bad rap for having been bankers, while - when you talk about the Swiss as a nation of bankers - the image is of a squeaky clean, very respectable business, and no one has a problem with it. Obviously, the Swiss bankers are as prone to being rotten, cheating, lying scumbags as anyone else.

132. pellenilsson - 9/3/1999 6:49:13 AM

Rustler

I will get back to you tomorrow.

Btw, there is a HTML tag you are supposed to add to your links so they open in a new window. I don't know it (because I spend so little time posting these days) but somebody else reading this surely does.

133. stostosto - 9/3/1999 7:26:52 AM

Rustler
I have personally always mistrusted the Swiss, finding them smug reactionay and small-minded. This confirms my prejudice - and it's not the first time the Swiss have treated a whistleblower against the establishment's rooted interests as a national traitor. I remember an equally disgraceful case that got some media attention some ten years ago. More later.

134. RustlerPike - 9/3/1999 8:08:40 AM

OK, pellesto: thanks for the prompt responses! I await your further opinions, pelle (or anyone else). Pelle: last time I experimented with html the entire Mote almost turned into a supernova, but I'd be glad to know what that tag is anyway.

135. stostosto - 9/3/1999 10:32:55 AM

Rustler

I'll probably have to add that I don't believe all Swiss are smug, reactionary and small-minded. It's my stereotype of choice when thinking of them. But one should be careful with stereotypes, as I am sure you'd agree. (Could be interesting if we had a Swiss Motist weighing in on this). And this guy, Christoph Meili, certainly defies this one admirably, even if he has had to pay a steep price.

But the reaction against him, not only from the Swiss establishment, but from the Swiss public at large, certainly suggests that this country has a problem with facing its past. There is apparently a deep-seated need to defend a self-image built on a precarious foundation.

On the face of it, a call for de-nazification of Switzerland is absurd, since the country was never actually Nazist. But I can see why he speaks of it in the sense that it's a process where you have to fess up to what you have done or haven't done - and what selfish interests you have been pursuing on the huge expense of so many hapless other people.

Switzerland is by no means alone in having avoided that kind of self-scrutinization. All the German occupied countries, Denmark included, have lots of grievances, and you can ask pelle about the Swedish experience as a non-occupied country. (Stories about Jewish gold for Swedish iron ore, no questions asked; allowing German troops passing through to Norway, etc.)

136. stostosto - 9/3/1999 10:33:51 AM

But it seems the Swiss denial is particularly fierce. And I think there is a kind of omerta ethic at work in this country. If you rock the boat, you effectively are frozen out. That case I hinted at earlier involved Rhone-Poulenc, the pharmaceuticals giant. They were involved in some serious wrong-doing (pollution of the Rhine on a major scale, or something), and one employee decided to go public.

He was not only fired and harassed by the company, but also by the Swiss police authorities, couldn't get a job anywhere, was essentially persona non grata, and - as I remember - his wife was driven to suicide by the whole thing.

There is a certain cosa nostra streak to such behaviour.

137. Dusty - 9/3/1999 10:37:52 AM

stostosto

I'm not Swiss, but I work for a Swiss company. I don't really like stereotypes becuase I don't think any ganfalloon can be captured accurately. I don't recognize the peopel you were talking about, but who knows, maybe I was obvious.

138. Dusty - 9/3/1999 10:44:45 AM

Oops, "ganfalloon" sb "granfalloon" (as if it wasn't obvious)

Looks like my post # 108 expressing some optimism re: East Timor was a bit premature. Sad to say.

139. stostosto - 9/3/1999 11:11:15 AM

Dusty

Did you read the article that Rustler linked to?

140. stostosto - 9/3/1999 11:11:19 AM

Dusty

Did you read the article that Rustler linked to?

141. Dusty - 9/3/1999 11:28:12 AM

stostosto

I hadn't, but after reading your post, I did.

142. Dusty - 9/3/1999 11:33:54 AM

Holy Cow, I need to preview better. In 137, I meant to say "oblivious". I trust the other typo wasn't as confisung.

143. Dusty - 9/3/1999 11:34:11 AM

::sigh::

144. stostosto - 9/3/1999 12:55:04 PM

Dytsu

No porlbem.

145. stostosto - 9/3/1999 12:55:05 PM

Dytsu

No porlbem.

146. stostosto - 9/3/1999 12:55:49 PM

Damn
Why are my posts doubled?

147. RustlerPike - 9/3/1999 3:43:46 PM

sto:

meileh (Hebrew for 'never mind') your posts, why is your name tripled?!

148. RustlerPike - 9/3/1999 3:45:37 PM

I had a wonderful experience once, in a Swiss bank. But this may belong in the Genitalia!?!? thread.

149. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/3/1999 11:14:13 PM

Breaking News

The results of the East Timor referendum were just announced on Indonesian TV. 80% of the population voted for independence. Indonesia announced that it will abide by the results, and East Timor (Timor Loro Sae) will soon be an independent nation. This, of course, leads to many questions regarding the new nation's economic viability and security.

150. CalGal - 9/3/1999 11:29:10 PM

Wow. What are your thoughts?

151. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/4/1999 12:08:26 AM

I'm not sure yet. An independent East Timor will leave no opportunities for the Indonesian military to engage in corruption, so if that was their motivation, as ProfE maintains, they'll pull out and stay out. If, otoh, my surmise is correct, and the military wants to save face and show the world that East Timor is unstable, they will continue to clandestinely support an armed rebellion, and things will continue to be a mess. In either case, there will be armed thugs with nothing to lose roaming the new nation, and an international peacekeeping force may well be necessary.

As for economic viability, Indonesia provided a good deal of infrastructure during its occupation (schools, roads, hospitals), but these are already deteriorating (poor construction, due to the usual corrupt bidding practices), and there will be almost no administrators, engineers, teachers, doctors, etc. in East Timor once Indonesia leaves. No Indonesians will stay behind, no matter how altruistic their motives, because they will be targets as many East Timorese will feel it's payback time (and their emotions are understandable, to a degree).

What it all comes down to is an international effort will be needed to fund, and run the new nation and train East Timorese for the jobs Indonesia never bothered training them for. I hope the international community is ready to pour billions of dollars into an independent East Timor. The signs of their readiness have been uncertain.

If the international community comes to the rescue, and if the Indonesian military keeps its hands off, and if the Timor gap oil resources are better than what they seem to be right now, and if other products or resources are discovered or developed, then the quality of life in East Timor will be much better than it is right now. If these things don't come to be, then the people will suffer. But at least they'll have their freedom.

152. pellenilsson - 9/4/1999 3:29:15 AM

Rustler

I have nothing to add to sto's analysis. I can only confirm that
Swedish iron ore exports were paid for by Jewish (remelted) gold.
Up to last year the official position was that we knew nothing about
it until after the war. But in fact the concerned persons in the
government and at the central bank did know, or at least strongly
suspected, that some gold was of 'doubtful origin' as the contemporary
expression went.

The troop transit story is also true and there were several. I guess our
excuse is that we were in a very weak position with Germans on all
sides, also in Finland. I will deal with this in the History.

Sorry about the line breaks. I'm a poor Netscape user.

153. pellenilsson - 9/4/1999 8:28:48 AM

A few additional notes on Maputo.

I mentioned earlier that the streets are in fairly bad shape. But I now see that there is a massive repavement scheme in progress, and it seems to be moving ahead rather quickly.

GSM cellular phones are frequently seen and heard. There are nearly 10,000 of them in Maputo which is not bad in a poor country where the service has only been available since the beginning of the year. GSM is a fantastic success everywhere and a prime example of the benefits of standardisation. When I switched on my handset here it immediately logged on to the local network, and people who dial my Swedish number will be connected to me here.

The food is fairly good with a distinct Portuguese touch although the inevitable Chinese and Indian restaurants are there too. No McDonalds, no Kentucky Chicken. Yesterday night I had sardinhas asadas, charcoal grilled sardines, a dish that I like and which evokes pleasant memories from vacations more than 25 years ago in Algarve, then much less exploited than today. My idea of a relaxing day is to walk a bit along the beach looking at stones and various flotsam, swim for a while and then take a large espresso and a pre-lunch brandy, of the sweetish local variety, at a small café near the small fishing port, looking at the small boats coming in to unload their bewildering variety of fish.

A final observation. The African/Portuguese/Indian mix seems to produce some stunningly beautiful girls.

154. ranheim - 9/4/1999 8:52:21 AM

I am like Pelle : the most beautiful women that I have seen in my life are of multiple races.

I have always thought that Hong Kong had the best looking women, on average, that it has been my pleasure to view : combination of Brit and Chinese.

Singapore and Bangkok, too, had their share of stunning women. In Singapore it seemed to be a combination of Brit/Chinese/Malay. In Bangkok is was Brit/French/USA/Thai. Wonderful!

155. RickNelson - 9/4/1999 8:58:36 AM

Pellenilisson,
Do you think the Swedish people feel liability for the Jewish gold? It was a government and bank issue, but perhaps the pinch of German oppression was high in the minds of the officials. Therefore, liability of the people would exist within that context.

Or, as you mention it will be covered.

156. pellenilsson - 9/4/1999 8:59:01 AM

Why do I have the feeling ScottLoar will join this discussion soon, unless he is travelling that is.

Have to run. Afternoon snack and siesta are now called for.

157. RickNelson - 9/4/1999 8:59:11 AM

Irv,

Thanks for the update and thoughts.

158. ProfEmeritus - 9/4/1999 10:08:33 AM

Irv

It is helpful to subscribe to Irv's apecial Indonesia news service. I heard it here first.

With regard to corruption, I didn't mean to suggest that the wide involvement of the military and administration in the spoils was the only reason that both were resisting independence. I meant to suggest that it provided the incentives used by the Suharto mafia to induce their cronies to follow their machinations.

159. RustlerPike - 9/5/1999 12:18:05 AM

Please someone: is it OK to feed a goldfish breadcrumbs?

160. pellenilsson - 9/5/1999 2:57:33 AM

Rustler

My vast international experience tells me it's perfectly OK in principle, but read up on the fine print of your goldfish insurance policy first.

161. alistairconnor - 9/5/1999 8:54:40 PM

Can't resist posting this, from my favourite NZ political commentator, Russell Brown (his columns can be found here, but would be hard going for the uninitiated). Here, he is talking about the frenzied preparations for the APEC summit which will bring my lovely city to a standstill this week :


"Anyway, look out for CIA operatives this week - they'll be the ones
walking into lamp posts and getting lost in the Domain. Honestly, could there have been a more pathetic gaffe this week than the faxing of US Apec security documents to a South Auckland chicken farmer? Even when the poor man got in touch to say that they had the wrong fax number, the mighty brains in US intelligence - they're the people who organised the accidental bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade - kept on sending them."

162. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/5/1999 9:57:22 PM

alistair:
That's a great story. Thanks for posting it.

163. ProfEmeritus - 9/5/1999 10:45:10 PM

alistair:

That is a great report. I took the liberty of sending it to a good friend, a distinguished University of Washington Professor, who was born and raised in Wellington. I know he will enjoy learning what is happening in his beloved home town.

164. alistairconnor - 9/5/1999 10:52:55 PM

Well, if he was born and raised in Wellington, it's a safe bet that he's a rabid hater (or perhaps a cordial despiser) of my home town of Auckland...

165. stostosto - 9/6/1999 6:51:21 AM

Rustler:

"meileh (Hebrew for 'never mind') your posts, why is your name tripled?!"

What do you mean? On the contrary, my name is short for stostostosotsotstostosotsto.

166. stostosto - 9/6/1999 6:53:54 AM

Sorry, that should have been
stostostostostostostostosto, not stostostosotsotstostosotsto.

See why I truncated it?

167. RickNelson - 9/6/1999 9:07:31 AM

Alistair,
I would read more political commentary, if there were more Russell Browns.




Stupid CIA!!!

168. Uzmakk - 9/6/1999 9:21:38 AM

Alistairconner:

I thought you were in France. You are in Wellington,NZ? Do we have a Motie who posts from France?

169. Uzmakk - 9/6/1999 9:21:40 AM

Alistairconner:

I thought you were in France. You are in Wellington,NZ? Do we have a Motie who posts from France?

170. ranheim - 9/6/1999 9:36:18 AM

The AP reports that I have seen in local papers portray E. Timor as a disaster area. One of the local papers had a truck loaded with media personnel on the run. How do you closer to the scene read the situation?

171. ranheim - 9/6/1999 9:40:34 AM

#170

Add : picture

One of my local papers had a picture of a truck loaded . . .

172. RustlerPike - 9/6/1999 2:39:57 PM

stostostostostostostosto:

Is stostostostostostostosto your first or last name? Do you have a middle name?

173. stostosto - 9/6/1999 3:26:08 PM

RustlerPike:
Yes.

174. cmboyce - 9/7/1999 1:46:25 AM

I saw where the Australian PM nixed the use of an already prepared peacekeeping force to police East Timor on the grounds that one cannot go into another country without that country's invitation. But perhaps it would be well to ignore the technicalities and consider independent East Timor to have already been created and to be implicitly inviting assistance. Because if someone doesn't get in there quick, I fear the place will have few Timorese left, let alone infrastructure, etc.

175. alistairconnor - 9/7/1999 2:00:45 AM

cmb: That is certainly what one would wish. But bear in mind that Indonesia is the world's fifth(?) largest country, with a large and well-equipped military. "Good-neighbourly" relations have dictated that the issue of oppression of the East Timorese, though always present on the political agenda in Australia and New Zealand over the last 25 years, never led to anything approaching rupture or hostilities.

The Australian PM was simply saying what everyone knows, that no-one is sending troops into East Timor without the invitation of Jakarta. A hostile intervention against Indonesia would be as complicated to prepare as the Kosovo business, and although it has a clearer basis in international law -- nobody recognises the Indonesian annexation of East Timor -- it isn't going to happen.

What is now crucial is to constrain the Indonesians into issuing that invitation, pronto.

The United Nations is sending a fact-finding mission(!) and is "giving Indonesia a chance" to prove that it can re-establish order (!), they seem to be fast-tracking the issue but in the UN way, that means that anything more forceful is weeks away.

The only hope of attenuating the bloodbath that I can see, is if Clinton is prepared to thump the table and make it clear that he takes the issue seriously.

176. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/7/1999 3:45:58 AM

The problem is that the Indonesian government has no control over the military, and the military answers to no one, least of all international political and financial pressure.

If an Australian force invaded, it would be a bloodbath. You would have a force of 3,000 Aussies going up against 23,000 armed Indonesian soldiers and police currenty in East Timor. Sure, the Aussies are better trained and better equipped, but the Indonesians are familiar with the place and have the logistical edge, plus an enormous army in reserve.

Right now things are at an impasse. Billions of dollars in international aid to Indonesia hangs in the balance, and Habibie is frantic to keep this aid without publicly admitting he can't do anything about the military.

East Timor wan't officially be granted independence till the parliament meets late next month, at which time it will basically be a rubber stamp, as all parties in parliament (with the possible exception of the 38 military representatives) agree that East Timor will go free.

The problem is the intervening weeks, in which the military-supplied pro-Indonesia militias will continue to run roughshod over the unarmed pro-independence majority. These aren't age-old hateds we're talking about here... these militias were formed and armed in recent weeks in the run-up to the vote.

(continued)

177. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/7/1999 3:46:52 AM

The only solution, and one which appears to be gaining ground here, is for Habibie and the government to invite an international force in, with complete disregard for the military. This might end up in a civil war, with Habibie and the government (supported by the majority of the people) alongside the international troops, versus the military. What a mess that would be. I haven't seen any signs of reduced intransigence or reasonable thinking on the part of the military yet, and no sign of a quick resolution. Nobody seems to understand what the military thinks it will gain by doing this. The only explanation is they are "saving face."

178. pellenilsson - 9/7/1999 4:31:08 AM

There are two long articles about ET in today's Herald Tribune.

179. pellenilsson - 9/7/1999 4:38:23 AM

It's remarkable but I can get BBC news on RealVideo here. Terrible scenes from yesterday with people trying to take refuge in the UN compound. Absolutely shocking.

180. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/7/1999 7:03:12 AM

Here is an article I just came across which underlines my earler comments and shows why I am so baffled:

Habibie's Impotence Revealed

Here is a very sad story from Reuters on how pointlessly brutal the militias are. I just don't understand why this is happening.

East Timor in Bloody Frenzy

181. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/7/1999 7:21:15 AM

The following is the best article I've come across on East Timor. Harold Crouch has been observing Indonesia for over 45 years, and understands the nation extremely well. Excuse me for reproducing the entire thing here, but the link has expired (despite the fact that it is dated Sept. 6, 1999):

Saving face our saving grace
Harold Crouch

Harold Crouch is a senior fellow in the ResearchSchool of Pacific and Asian Studies at Australian National University.

From: Australian Financial Review 06 September 1999

Don't make it difficult for Jakarta to assert its control over the Indonesian military by adding to the troops' present sense of humiliation, advises Harold Crouch.

The overwhelming rejection of Indonesia's offer of autonomy marks the beginning of a particularly dangerous phase in East Timor's progress towards independence. Indonesia will continue to claim sovereignty over the territory until the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) rescinds its 1976 decision incorporating East Timor.

But the Indonesian military and police, judging by their performance so far, cannot be relied upon to carry out their obligation to maintain order between now and the convening of the MPR session.

The MPR seems certain to endorse the result of the "popular consultation" in October or November. Although some complaints have been raised about UNAMET's alleged bias, both President Habibie and his main challenger for the presidency, Megawati Sukarnoputri, have committed themselves to respecting the outcome of the ballot. By the time the MPR meets, it is likely that the Indonesian public will be far more concerned with the presidential election than with the future of East Timor.

[continued]

182. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/7/1999 7:22:38 AM

The military's potential to mount a rearguard action in the MPR against separation has been greatly undermined by the massive vote for independence. Not only has the military been humiliated by its failure to put down resistance in a province whose population makes up less than half of 1 per cent of Indonesia's total population, but its constant refrain that support for independence was limited to a small minority of malcontents has been exposed as baseless propaganda.

For the many Indonesians who, until Saturday, had continued to believe that most East Timorese were happy to be part of Indonesia, the military's credibility must be severely damaged.

The problem is not with the MPR in Jakarta but with conditions in East Timor, where the military has obviously aided and encouraged the anti-independence militias. In the past, the Indonesian Government always justified Indonesia's intervention in East Timor as necessary to prevent civil war. It now seems that the military, especially those on the ground in East Timor, want to provoke fighting between East Timorese as a salve to their wounded pride.

On the other hand, it is likely that at least some senior officers in Jakarta are aware of the damage this does to Indonesia's international reputation, especially as Indonesia had regularly condemned Portugal for leaving East Timor in a state of turmoil in 1975.

[continued]

183. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/7/1999 7:25:45 AM

Growing disorder in East Timor has led to demands in Australia and elsewhere for an international peacekeeping force to replace Indonesian forces, which have so clearly failed to carry out their responsibilities. Advocates of foreign intervention, however, often seem unaware of the dangers of placing troops in a territory that Indonesia still regards as its own.

It needs to be remembered that Indonesia still has around 10,000 army troops and another 8,000 police in East Timor. Any unilateral move by Australia, for example, to send our two available brigades (around 3,000 troops) to East Timor could easily lead to clashes with the Indonesian forces. In that case the result would not be peacekeeping but armed conflict in which Australian and East Timorese casualties could be heavy.

This does not mean that Australia and the international community should simply stand by as East Timor descends into anarchy. But it does mean that Indonesian approval must be obtained before peacekeepers can be sent. We should by now have learnt that vociferous demands that ``insist" that Indonesia "must" accept foreign peacekeepers are likely to make it difficult for President Habibie to persuade the military leaders to accept foreign troops.

On the other hand, quiet behind-the-scenes offers to ``assist" Indonesia in carrying out its obligations can provide a face-saving means to achieve the same goal.

It is in the interests of both Australia and East Timor to avoid actions in the short term that could prejudice good relations with Indonesia in the long term. We will be doing the East Timorese no favour by adding to Indonesia's present sense of humiliation. As far as possible, Indonesia's co-operation should be sought during the transition to independence.

[continued]

184. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/7/1999 7:26:48 AM

Indonesia's present economic circumstances are such that it has a strong interest in improving its international image. Most Indonesians including those in the Government are far more interested in economic recovery than in retaining control of East Timor.

But the strong nationalist sentiments of most Indonesians make them particularly sensitive to what they see as foreign interference. International diplomacy should avoid public demands that make it difficult for the Government to assert its authority over the military.

[end]

185. JonesAtLaw - 9/7/1999 9:54:52 AM

Irv- how would it be possible to put effective pressure on the miltary in Indonesia? What could the UN or US do that would not increase the potential for civil disorder in the rest of Indonesia?

186. cmboyce - 9/7/1999 10:18:14 AM

I think Crouch has an excellent idea: get Jakarta to accept "assistance", offered (originally) back-channel and unaccompanied by "insistence" and "demands". The strong-arming of Cold War Days (and colonialist years) will only raise hackles, in general and in particular, ie, particularly here, in the case of a new, and populous, country.

187. cmboyce - 9/7/1999 10:20:00 AM

[Lower-case that "Days"; sounds like something at the State Fair, advertised on late-nite TV.]

188. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/7/1999 1:14:01 PM

Jones:
I really don't know what can be done. The military is on a classic power trip, and I don't think pressure from any side would make any difference. The best bet is to follow Crouch's advice and move quietly by working with the government and reasonable forces in the military. There are cooler heads in the military. I saw Major General Ajat Sudrajat, the former military attache in Washington, on TV tonight, and he was saying all the right things about disarming the militias, bringing peace to East Timor and then pulling out.

It's the old Suharto gang in the military which is behind all the problems, and the methods are vintage Suharto as well. General Feisal Tandjung, who declared Martial Law in East Timor today, is among the worst and most-tainted of all the old-school military. No one knows exactly where General Wiranto (the head of the Armed Forces) stands, though his continued inaction says a lot.

I've been saying all along (since Habibie's initiative was first announced in February) that Indonesia wanted to see things deteriorate in East Timor to prove they were needed. However, I never thought the military would so brazenly and openly support and encourage massive killngs and anarchy.

alistair (Msg 175):
...bear in mind that Indonesia is the world's fifth(?) largest country...

It's the fourth largest.

189. JonesAtLaw - 9/7/1999 4:30:12 PM

Irv, thanks for the response. I am afraid that most Americans don't know squat about Indonesia, myself sadly included. I would be happy if Clinton let it be known that he would consider intervention via the UN, through back channels, and quickly.

190. cmboyce - 9/7/1999 4:46:54 PM

I keep seeing mention of the fact that the UN never recognized the legitimacy of the '75 invasion in the first place, so isn't East Timor still a nation itself, in terms of UN membership, international relations, etc.? Is there, or was there ever, a government-in-exile?

Not that I can see acting on that much, in light of just the considerations made in the preceding posts--war with Indonesia is not much of an idea--but at some point, might not such cards be played, or at least bluffed with?

191. ChristinO - 9/7/1999 4:47:04 PM

Irv,

Is the military actually a separate political group? They don't answer to the government? Where do the soldiers come from?

I'm woefully undereducated about this, but how in the world does such a situation come about? It doesn't seem to make any kind of sense to have a military with power of its own to act against whomever it chooses for whatever political goals it desires. Was the system set up this way or did it just kind of evolve into it?

That would terrify me. I'd likely end up living in the PNW with spud's Patriots.

192. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/8/1999 6:54:53 AM

cm:
Officially, according to the UN, East Timor is still a Portuguese colony. Indonesia moved in when Portugal abandoned East Timor in 1975, without even bothering to grant it independence. There has never been a government of any sort in East Timor, in-exile or not, and there is no government to put in place once independence from Indonesia is formally granted. The likely first president of an independent East Timor, Jose Alexandre "Xanana" Gusmão, was just released from prison in Jakarta yesterday, where he has been a political prisoner since 1994. But he fears for his life if he returns to East Timor, and is staying put in Jakarta for the time being. He favors a friendly relationship with Indonesia after independence, a position which is increasingly unlikely with each passing day.

The other major leader and voice of reason in East Timor, nobel-prize laureate Bishop Carlos Belo, has fled to Darwin, Australia, after his house in Dili was attacked and burned down.

193. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/8/1999 6:55:28 AM

Christin:
It's a long story, but basically, the military in Indonesia answers to no one. The president is supposedly the Commander in Chief, and that worked fine during Suharto's 33 years in power (since Suharto was a General anyway), but the military has pointedly ignored Habibie (who has no military background), and has refused to take orders from him.

The military is not a separate political group. They are a part of the government. Many government ministers have always come from the military (and still do), and the military has a number of automatic seats in parliament (though this number was reduced significantly last year). No leader can make it in Indonesia without the military's backing, which is why the protests from both Habibie and Megawati have been very restrained.

Where do the soldiers come from?

The officers are chosen from the best and brightest of the nation. Major General Ajat Sudrajat, for example, has a Master's Degree from Harvard. Many of the top military officers were educated in the US. The common soldiers are recruited from all parts of the nation and all levels of society. Being accepted into the Armed Forces is the key to success in life for anyone.

...how in the world does such a situation come about? ... Was the system set up this way or did it just kind of evolve into it?

It evolved into it, largely because of Suharto. For an excellent recap of just how this happened, I highly recommend Adam Schwarz's book "A Nation in Waiting."

194. alistairconnor - 9/8/1999 7:07:24 AM

Irv, I realise that, as Crouch says, appeasement of the military is more likely to get results than feel-good table-thumping. But it doesn't make me any less angry and upset. On the contrary.

195. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/8/1999 7:12:34 AM

alistair:
There's no reason not to feel angry. I'm feeling quite angry and frustrated myself. We all have good reason to be upset.

196. ranheim - 9/8/1999 8:33:56 AM

For what it is worth - last night all 30 minutes of the "Ted Koppel" program on ABC(?) were on E. Timor. He had two guests : the very liberal columnist Anthony Lewis + former Congressman Lee Hamilton. I was busy elsewhere and missed most of it. So I can't comment on the content of the 30 minutes.

197. stostosto - 9/8/1999 10:58:46 AM

Irv

Thank you for your East Timor coverage. I read it with interest.

It's a tragedy.

And it demonstrates the limitations of the Kosovo solution. The so-called international community is powerless when it comes to really big and important countries' misbehaviour towards its own people.

198. cmboyce - 9/8/1999 11:01:38 AM

What have the Portuguese been saying about all this, if anything?

199. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/8/1999 11:57:26 AM

ranheim:
I've read what Anthony Lewis has to say about the situation in the New York Times (and you can read it, too, right here). Although he packages his outrage nicely, it doesn't appear that he has much of a grasp of the situation at all.

For the best Western commentary on the situation, nothing beats the Australian papers. For anyone interested, here are a few goos starting points:

The Sydney Morning Herald

The Age (Melbourne)

The Australian Financial Review

cm:
The Portuguese, who were one of the parties to the referendum agreement (along with the UN and Indonesia), and who have been very vocal over the years (although they were the ones responsible for the mess in the first place), have been rather silent over the past week, leaving the initiative to Australia.

200. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/8/1999 12:01:19 PM

...a few good starting points...

201. cmboyce - 9/8/1999 12:43:32 PM

Particularly shocking is The Age's report on Wiranto's over-ruling the Cabinet on martial law. Might the formal installation of a military regime be in the offing, Irv? Would Megawati simply go along, perhaps be a figurehead? Has she any choice, do you suppose? And, indeed, what has she been saying/doing lately?

202. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/8/1999 12:58:18 PM

cm:
The possibility of a military take-over is certainly a great fear here. I personally think it's unlikely, but there are those here who see things pointing in that direction. I can't imagine Mega agreeing to be a figurehead in such an arrangement.

Wiranto made it very clear that he is calling the shots. He forced Habibie to sign the martial law order for East Timor, and when Habibie balked about announcing it, Wiranto sent his own spokesman to make the official announcement on national TV while Wiranto paid a visit to habibie's home and set him straight on who was in charge.

Very chilling.

As for what Mega has been doing lately, she has publically complained about what is happening in East Timor, and has confirmed that she will abide by the results of the referendum if elected. (She had previously said that she felt East Timor should remain a part of Indonesia, so this is a significant change in her position.) She has avoided taking the military on directly, however.

203. Rivendell - 9/8/1999 1:25:03 PM

Irv,

I've read your reports and most of the links you have provided on E. Timor. These have been helpful, but they lead me to ask - you personally think a military take-over of Indonesia is unlikely - why?

All these reports seem to indicate that the non-military powers in Indonesia have, so far, proven to be particularly powerless against Wiranto's (and the army's) decisions regarding E. Timor. What stands in the way of the army doing what it wants anywhere else? I realize E. Timor is not the same as the rest of Indonesia, but the military seems to be awfully confident they can ignore all powers but their own.

204. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/8/1999 1:46:31 PM

Riv:
I agree about the military's attitude right now. But I have hope that the fact that very few people in Indonesia accept what the military is doing (let alone the rest of the world) may mean something.

Already, there are daily anti-military student demonstrations in Jakarta. And the power of the students throughout Indonesian history has always been exceptional.

I honestly don't think the military would wage war against the citizens of Indonesia, and I think that's what it would take to effect a military take-over. But I may be wrong.

205. Rivendell - 9/8/1999 1:53:33 PM

Irv,

I hope you are not wrong. It just concerns me that there seems to be no one Wiranto is answerable to over E. Timor. And in one of your links above there is an article that refers to Wiranto's puppet master powers. Even if there is no outright military take-over it seems Wiranto might be in a position to exercise just as much power behind some other politician.

206. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/8/1999 2:22:28 PM

Riv:
Those are all very real concerns.

207. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/8/1999 3:06:04 PM

There's some very frightening news coming out of East Timor right now. Since these news reports are taken from the radio (due to news censorship under martial law, news reports on East Timor are getting harder to come by), and there are no internet links to these reports, I hope you'll excuse my posting them here, in full.

The first of these reports is of an interview of Justice Minister Muladi by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. I am also including the notes by "Joyo" who sends out daily updates of news on Indonesia to concerned parties all over the world. Nobody knows who Joyo really is, but he has been credited as having been a major force in the downfall of Suharto, when his e-mails were found posted all over Jakarta, informing people of events the press couldn't.

Please note how Muladi, normally a very well-spoken individual, limits himself to terse statements, as if he is afraid to say more. The "canned" nature of these statements reminds one strongly of the Suharto era, when everyone was supposed to be singing the same tune, in accordance with the wishes of the puppet master, and are strong evidence of a new puppet-master on the scene.

Without further ado... some particularly chilling reports...

208. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/8/1999 3:11:49 PM

Joyo note: In the interview below one of Habibie's closest advisors claims that the reason for Habibie cancelling his attendance at APEC meeting has nothing whatsoever to do with East Timor! Reasons given: Habibie is too busy with preparations for parliament session in December, and he doesn't feel APEC is important enough to warrant his attendence. APEC meeting was going to be Habibie's big day in the international sun. It is widely known he has been keen to meet Clinton, to gain int'l legitimacystamp of approval, to bask in Clinton's/US aura -- now cancelled at last minute -- and having absolutely nothing to do with East Timor of course.

Australian Broadcasting Corp.
PM News
Wednesday, September 8, 1999 6:17 p.m.

Muladi speaks

MARK COLVIN: From the Indonesian Government, meanwhile, clear indications that it remains opposed to accepting a UN peace keeping force. The Indonesian Justice Minister, Muladi, says it's too early to say that Indonesia's imposition of martial law has failed and he's told us that more Indonesian troops are on their way to East Timor.

The Minister also insists that despite widespread reports of soldiers assisting the militia, such incidents were restricted to a few individuals. At the same time he confirmed to Tim Palmer that President Habibie won't go to the APEC Summit, but not because of concern over East Timor.

MINISTER MULADI: No. I think he has decided that he will not come to APEC Conference. It originates - there are so many problems with the preparations of Habibie before the MPR General Assembly in December.

TIM PALMER: So it's not because of the situation in East Timor?

MINISTER MULADI: No. No. Habibie consider that the less, the programme of APEC not so significant to be represented by a President.

[continued]

209. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/8/1999 3:13:08 PM

TIM PALMER: Turning to the situation in East Timor, how ... what is your report on the situation?

MINISTER MULADI: The Minister of Defence this afternoon would like to give report to Mr Habibie, Mr Habibie, but in general I think to my impression, yeah, it's not getting better.

TIM PALMER: So, your impression is that the situation in East Timor has not improved since martial law was imposed?

MINISTER MULADI: He was just to wait there for a moment, I think, because we are going to send another battalion to East Timor of armed forced of Indonesia.

TIM PALMER: So when will that happen? When will that battalion go?

MINISTER MULADI: Yes, as soon as possible. Maybe now it's on the way.

TIM PALMER: So how many more men is that?

MINISTER MULADI: Yeah. We're may receive about five battalions from Java.

TIM PALMER: So you're preparing five battalions to go to East Timor?

MINISTER MULADI: Right.

TIM PALMER: Have you heard reports that TNI officers and police officers are involved in the violence?

MINISTER MULADI: Oh, no. No. I think just ... maybe individual not systematic as an organisation. Maybe. Maybe.

TIM PALMER: The United Nations Security Council representatives arrive today. What is the government's attitude towards getting a peace keeping force, an armed peace keeping force, into East Timor before the MPR approves the separation?

MINISTER MULADI: Yeah, actually it's on the agreement. Forces can only be sent to East Timor after the MPR general assembly in November. So, in the second phase before the general assembly I think the responsibility is fully on the forces of Indonesia and the government of Indonesia.

[continued]

210. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/8/1999 3:13:58 PM

TIM PALMER: But would you not accept that now it's time for Indonesia to change the arrangement and to allow United Nations peace keepers in given that the army and police from Indonesia have so far failed to maintain this order?

MINISTER MULADI: I'm worried that the early sending of the peace keeping force can create a counter-productive situation.

TIM PALMER: In what sense?

MINISTER MULADI: Because they have to trust that Indonesian armed forces will overcome the problem in East Timor first.

TIM PALMER: You may have heard of the expression "the coalition of the willing", that is a suggestion that some countries may decide to send a peace keeping force to East Timor without agreement from Indonesia. What would happen then?

MINISTER MULADI: I do know that Indonesia is a member of the United Nations so in that regard they should regard and respect the Indonesian peace on the tripartite agreement in New York.

TIM PALMER: So, can I just ask once more - do you think the Government, the Indonesian Government, will accept a change in the arrangements and allow a United Nations peace keeping force to enter East Timor before the agreed time?

MINISTER MULADI: I think it's debatable. I think it should be discussed with the Indonesian Government.

MARK COLVIN: Indonesia's Justice Minister Muladi, speaking to Tim Palmer. And military experts tell us that number of TNI battalions would amount to three and a half thousand soldiers, so that's a further reinforcement of three and a half thousand, with an estimated 26 thousand police and soldiers there already.

Joyo: Live interview from Dili on National Public Radio in U.S. confirmed from several eyewitnesses that Indonesian militiary is openly working with militia to loot, burn, and kill. Observers have not seen one instance of Indon military intervening to stop violence, on the contrary - they are actively participating.

[end]

211. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/8/1999 3:20:49 PM

Australian Broadcasting Corp Breaking News
Wed, Sep 8 1999 9:49 PM AEST

[includes a number of other news updates]

UN to withdraw from East Timor

The United Nations Mission to East Timor, UNAMET, has just announced it will begin an evacuation from the UN compound in Dili.

Heather Patterson, a freelance journalist still in Dili, says the evacuation will begin tomorrow at 10am local time [11am AEST].

The 167 local UN staff and their families will be a part of the evacuation along with the 206 international staff and the 25 journalists staying at the UNAMET compound.

The negotiations resulting in this decision have been described as being at the "highest level".

Journalists at the compound have been told that no cameras are to be shown in the transport because the Indonesian government does not want cameras to be seen.

Over 1,000 East Timorese have sought shelter in the complex.

In an effort to drive them out, troops and militiamen cut the compound's water and power supply.

They have also prevented UN staffers from bringing in badly needed food and medical supplies.

Supplies

Earlier, Ms Patterson, says UNAMET's position in Dili is under threat following an attack on its main food warehouse.

"The meetings are going on because the United Nations thought it could survive for quite some time on the stock it had in that warehouse but right now as we speak, that warehouse is going up in smoke," she said.

"They believe it has been looted; they have no hope for any of the supplies there."

Meanwhile, the United Nations has been stopped from getting to food supplies in Dili, despite being escorted by Indonesian soldiers.

A small group of UN staff was taken by army truck to see a limited area of Dili, finding 40 UN vehicles destroyed.

[continued]

212. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/8/1999 3:21:41 PM

Out of their compound for the first time in days, the UN says militias are looting and roaming the streets armed with guns.

Mr Wimhurst says the UN compound has enough supplies but he will not say for how long they can last.

End to terror

Earlier, pro-Jakarta militia groups announced an end to their campaign of terror and violence.

At Kupang, in West Timor, one of the militias' political chiefs has claimed an agreement was reached with Indonesia's regional head of the armed forces.

Political chief Brasilio Araujo has announced militia forces have agreed to end the violence in East Timor.

He says the decision was taken after a meeting was held with militia leaders and the Indonesian military in the border town of Atambua.

He has defended the militias' campaign against pro-independence supporters as a campaign of frustration over UNAMET's bias in supervising the ballot.

The head of Indonesia's regional military command, Major Adam Damiri, says firm action will be taken against the militias if they fail to comply with martial law.

Dili destroyed

Even if the violence ends now, eyewitnesses have reported the centre of the East Timorese capital, Dili, has been destroyed.

Six United Nations employees ventured out of the UN compound earlier today in trucks escorted by soldiers, to see what sort of damage had been inflicted around the town.

Freelance journalist John Martinkus, who is sheltering inside the UN compound, describes what was seen.

"The entire centre of town is totally destroyed, all the shops are gone, all burnt down, basically soldiers on the street, guns on every corner, nobody's doing anything to stop the looting," he said.

"I spoke to a security official who came in last night with the convoy from Baucau.

[continued]

213. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/8/1999 3:22:32 PM

"He described the situation to me as being totally devoid of law and order, with TNI Indonesian police and militias all engaged in looting of all the main public buildings in town.

"Basically, the entire town has been trashed and the military is actively participating in it."

Petition

There are reports from West Timor that Indonesian Government officials are forcing pro-independence East Timorese refugees to sign petitions supporting integration with Indonesia.

Antonio Pinto from the Timorese Democratic Union in Queensland says he received a phone call earlier today from contacts in West Timor.

He says it appears Government officials are organising the petitions.

"At the moment, they are telling us that the Indonesians - the Indonesian Government in Atangua - are forcing the pro-independence people in West Timor to sign a petition that they want to have integration with Indonesia," he said.

Deportation

The reports came as the chief spokesman for UNAMET, David Wimhurst, said forced deportations were continuing from East to West Timor.

UNAMET reconaissance patrols are trying to work out the extent of the deportations and are deciding whether to make their way to the border to investigate reports of deaths and violence.

Mr Wimhurst says they will investigate forced deportations.

"It's in the tens of thousands, obviously they are being trucked out, there's forced deportation of refugees out of East Timor and into West Timor and this has been going on since the beginning of the week, but I can't give you figures," he said.

As the deportations continued, an Indonesian Navy ship carrying about 2,000 East Timorese arrived in the West Timor port city of Kupang, with some refugees saying they had been forcibly removed.

[continued]

214. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/8/1999 3:23:08 PM

The refugees, mainly women and children who had been packed on the open decks of the ship, were herded into army trucks for transport to refugee camps.

One woman says the Red and White Iron militia had come to a church in Dili and forced them at gunpoint to the ship.

West Timor is rapidly becoming flooded with East Timorese, fleeing or forced out because of the militia violence.

Australia today announced it was withdrawing all of its consulate staff from East Timor, closing its honorary consulate in West Timor and calling for all Australians to move out of the territory.

Despite the order for Australians and consular staff to evacuate, UNAMET says its 200 staff, including civilian police, will remain in Dili.

Emergency meeting

Federal Cabinet held an emergency meeting in Canberra to discuss the worsening crisis.

The Government says martial law has failed.

Foreign Minister Alexander Downer says 24 hours after Indonesia declared martial law in East Timor, the situation is worse.

Militia groups still roam the streets and 5,000 people are now in the United Nations compound in Dili.

Mr Downer says legally, there could be grounds to justify a peacekeeping force entering East Timor without Indonesia's consent, but with 26,000 Indonesian troops in the province it would amount to war.

"The Indonesians have made it perfectly clear they'd militarily resist that," he said

Mr Downer is now heading for Auckland for talks tonight and tomorrow with foreign ministers from the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) nations.

He says the United States is giving stronger signs it would support a peacekeeping force but wants to hear first from the United Nations Security Council mission to Jakarta.

[continued]

215. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/8/1999 3:23:33 PM

The Prime Minister says he has spoken twice today to the United Nations secretary general, Kofi Annan.

After the Cabinet meeting, Mr Howard said: "Australia's position remains the same".

"We believe that unless the security situation in East Timor is restored to a proper level, and there is precious little evidence to us of that occurring, then international pressure should be applied to the Indonesian Government to allow the introduction of a peacekeeping force."

[end]

216. Rivendell - 9/8/1999 3:36:01 PM

Irv,

The Australian piece of this is still missing for me. Is Australia worried that this Indonesian bullying poses a security threat to them? Or are they opposed to it on principle? Or is it just too close for comfort?

217. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/8/1999 3:43:20 PM

Riv:
All of those reasons, plus pressure from the sizeable Timorese refugee community in Australia.

218. Rivendell - 9/8/1999 3:44:36 PM

Irv,

That extra reason puts it into better perspective. Thanks.

219. ranheim - 9/8/1999 6:08:52 PM

I don't consider National Public Radio a very good source of information in a fluid situation as in E. Timor. But, this afternoon they announced that unnamed "spokesmen" in Washington, D.C. suggested that the Australians would be the lead in a hostile introduction of troops into E. Timor.

One would hope that this "spokesman" was an employee of NPR; not the USGovernment.

Damn! This is slow today. But, I suspect that the gremlins are local. I could not get into area code 212 (I have a son in Manhattan) all day.

For those of you closer to the situation : can you imagine an Australian Force entering E. Timor without invitation? I find this very hard to believe but I am 8 - 9,000 miles away.

220. robertjayb - 9/8/1999 6:43:34 PM

ranheim,

Here is some opinion on Aussie intervention from The Sydney Morning Herald:

Bombing Jakarta/Declaring War on Sanity

221. ranheim - 9/8/1999 6:59:04 PM

We don't have many of celtic background in Louisiana.
Its been years since I have seen a name like Padraic P. McGuinness.
Wonderful!

222. alistairconnor - 9/8/1999 7:46:03 PM

RobertJ:

That editorial piece is completely loony, much what one would expect from the Australian conservative establishment. This little gem :

"While the Indonesian troops and the Timorese militia are engaged in murderous activities, so, too, from the beginning, have the guerillas on the other side. Fretilin is a party of murderers, and as such could hardly be other than feared by those who have been opposed to it for so long."

This raises a couple of interesting questions.

• The figure of 200 000 dead in the last twenty-four years is often quoted, and I confess I had always assumed that this figure consisted almost exclusively of East Timorese killed by the Indonesian occupying forces. Perhaps I am wrong?
  
• I believe that the Fretilin guerillas were confined by the referendum accords to designated areas, with UN verification. What are they doing now? Just sitting around watching their people being massacred? Presumably, the Indonesian army would love to see them go into action, to justify their terror campaign retrospectively.
  

223. robertjayb - 9/8/1999 8:02:01 PM

Thanks, alistair.

I am completely willing to accept your wisdom on the matter. I linked the article as the only example I've seen of commentary on
direct Australian intervention.

Here, I am disappointed, again, on the Clinton administration's failure to speak more aggressively about the situation in East Timor.
But I do think they will do something. It may be that behind-the-scenes jawboning on financial matters will be as effective as military blustering.

224. ProfEmeritus - 9/8/1999 8:42:44 PM

There was an announcement on NPR that Habibie has acceded to the high level UN group's request that UN peacekeepers be allowed into East Timor. I have heard nothing further. That announcement was about an hour and a half ago. As Ranheim says, NPR may not be the best listening post on developments 12,000 miles from their studios.

225. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/8/1999 8:58:19 PM

ProfE:
Nothing about it yet on TV or newspapers here. Even if Habibie agrees, it means little unless the military also agrees. Habibie himself is desperate to keep good international relations, keep the international flow of money coming in, and salvage the Timor referendum, which, after all, was his initiative (and one of the few truly good things he's done).

The military, obviously, doesn't care about any of these factors.

An hour and a half before your post would be around 6:00 AM Jakarta time, an unlikely time for an important decision.

alistair:
That article does indeed include some very warped perceptions, and shows a very muddled understanding of the current mess and its historical underpinnings. But its central theme, the wrong-headedness of an Australian attack on East Timor, is dead on.

226. DanDillon - 9/8/1999 9:21:41 PM

Would someone kindly explain why an intervention by the Austrailians of all people? Is this a purely geographical issue? Do the Aussies have vested political or financial interests in E. Timor? And beyond that, why haven't the Portuguese been more vocal up to this point? Sure, they're poor and mostly just fish [a verb, not a predicate nominative], but don't they have anything at stake here, even if merely their prideful integrity?

227. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/8/1999 9:26:12 PM

Dan:
I think Riv succinctly covered the Australian reasons above, along with the one point I added.

As for the Portuguese, the fact that they abandoned East Timor without so much as a farewell speech 24 years ago shows how much they care. They were good about bellyaching about the situation for many years, but I don't think they would actually commit to anything which might cost effort, money or lives.

228. DanDillon - 9/8/1999 9:36:49 PM

Irv,
I had missed Riv's 216 and your 217. Thanks. And the Portuguese explanantion makes sense as well. Is the E. Tomirese refugee population in Austrailia looked down upon by the ruling classes there? Is it something akin to N. Africans in France? Just asking to gain some perspective.

229. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/8/1999 9:40:20 PM

Dan:
I don't think so. In fact, they are warmly accepted as the Aussies' pet oppressed peoples. The community is led there by Timor-exile and Nobel Laureate Jose Ramos-Horta, and has always been quite vocal.

230. Thoughtful - 9/8/1999 9:46:54 PM

Achh. What nasty business. An Asian Yugoslavia in the making?

231. ProfEmeritus - 9/8/1999 10:34:35 PM

Irv

Horta was on the Jim Lehrer hour this evening for a long interview. He didn't add much to what we already know. He did say that in his view Habibie has no power at all, but he is well-intentioned. He was very eloquent in his plea for international diplomatic pressure, including the foreign assiatance tools. He said he was warmly received at the World Bank today, but he wouldn't go beyond that. He hopes to meet US political figures soon. When asked why he hadn't yet seen them he simply said that there hadn't been time. He also said that East Timor is the worst genocide since the Nazis. Ne put the number of victims at 250 thousand.

232. alistairconnor - 9/8/1999 11:44:55 PM

I once (this would be about 17 years ago)had the privilege of dining with an Australian senator who had fought in World War 2 against the Japanese in Timor. He was a most vociferous supporter of the East Timorese struggle for independence, and was at loggerheads with his government's diplomatically accomodating stance with respect to Indonesia.

Remember that in WWII Australia was fighting for survival against invaders from Asia, who nearly got as far as the mainland. I think they have every right to be both outraged at the current situation, and very wary about getting into conflict with Indonesia.

233. pellenilsson - 9/9/1999 3:21:41 AM

Irv

Thanks to you this is the best place to keep track of the tragic events in East Timor.

234. alistairconnor - 9/9/1999 5:22:03 AM

I just got this e-mail from my brother who lives in Canberra:

"We are totally slutted about Timor too. At least the Aussie journos are doing a good job at keeping the issue as THE only thing going on in the country this week, despite the odd bit of pinstriped crap such as the one you quote on your chat page. [The Mote.] It is so gut wrenching to see the thing unfold as per rolling prediction by the press and commentators. The Australian response is also pathetically predictable too. It seems the Indonesians (Alitas is the most visible) are now closing off the dialogue, and will deal with it in their own way! Whatever Habibie might be inclined to do he is now finished anyway it seems. Megawati is positioning to use Timor as the lever to gain power by blaming him for giving it away; the military want to get it back by the same tactics they have used for the last 25 years in order to save face (a match made in heaven); and I don't think anyone can do much about it except get into a war with the Indonesian army. If Habibie, in the knowledge that he is fucked anyway, was to go out on a limb and approve a UN force, the Aussies would be too scared to go in by themselves. There are LOTS of Indonesians in Timor, and I wouldn't agree that the Aussies are necessarily better trained and equipped. The Yanks are very reluctant, but I think Johnny Howard is taking that as an insult to the ANZAC tradition and is likely to have a few cross words for Clinton this week."

235. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/9/1999 5:37:26 AM

alistair:
Your brother is extremely perceptive. Any chance of getting him to join us here?

The buzz everywhere here today is that there was a coup d'etat Tuesday night, and we all missed it. Habibie is now a mere puppet with no powers whatsoever and Wiranto is the only real power in the nation.

Everything that Habibie accomplished is now out the window (it was never that much anyway), and, most frighteningly, it looks like this includes the Timor referendum. Look for Indonesia to try and hang onto East Timor at all costs. Because the Army wants it that way.

It also means that freedom of the press is gone. Nothing is being reported in the press... NOTHING. It's back to the Suharto days, just like that. And we're all back to scouring the internet for real information. Journalists are being called in to military HQ one by one, and leaving looking very scared. Cell phone communications have mostly been cut off, and half the internet providers are already down. If you don't see any more posts from me for a while, you'll know why.

This is all so unbelievably stupid and unnecessary. I can't believe it's happening in this country I love so much.

236. alistairconnor - 9/9/1999 5:50:03 AM

Hang in there Irv.

237. alistairconnor - 9/9/1999 5:54:58 AM

My brother is a bit busy with his doctorate at the moment, but I imagine he'll join us one day.

238. pellenilsson - 9/9/1999 5:57:13 AM

I suggest that somebody give Irv the possibility to log in overseas so that he can send an e-mail in case he is cut off.

I'll mail him now, but I'm not so sure that an international line Indonesia-Mozambique is all that great. On the other hand it's only one satellite hop so maybe.

239. SnowOwl - 9/9/1999 5:58:19 AM

Irv,

This is so frightening and so appalling I really don't know what to say. I hope you and your family remain safe and that your lines of communication to us aren't cut off.

240. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/9/1999 6:03:36 AM

Thanks for the thoughts, pelle, alistair and SnowOwl. I'm in no danger in Bali, where everything is business as usual (though the flow of tourists may well slow down soon). It's just so frustrating seeing this happen.

241. SnowOwl - 9/9/1999 6:07:43 AM

I've got a friend en route from South Africa to Bali at the moment, Irv. Apparently they were being offered great deals, (their air fare was thrown in with the cost of the hotel), as so many people had cancelled their holiday plans. I thought he was being a little foolish so I'm glad to hear all is carrying on as usual there.

242. SnowOwl - 9/9/1999 6:07:46 AM

I've got a friend en route from South Africa to Bali at the moment, Irv. Apparently they were being offered great deals, (their air fare was thrown in with the cost of the hotel), as so many people had cancelled their holiday plans. I thought he was being a little foolish so I'm glad to hear all is carrying on as usual there.

243. SnowOwl - 9/9/1999 6:08:21 AM

I don't know why that posted twice.

244. pellenilsson - 9/9/1999 6:09:34 AM

Irv

Mail sent.

245. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/9/1999 6:10:37 AM

SnowOwl:
Your friend has nothing to worry about in Bali, and should have a good time here. Bali never changes, and remains unaffected by events in Jakarta and East Timor.

246. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/9/1999 6:12:56 AM

Here's some good historical background on the Indonesian Armed Forces, written by David Jenkins, one of the most respected of all Australian journalists covering Indonesia, from the Sydney Morning Herald.

Army is Still the Pivot of Power

247. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/9/1999 6:36:11 AM

Pelle:
Mail received. It looks as if the all-important lines between Bali and Maputo are still open. Thanks for the offer... let's hope I don't have to use that option. It's very nice knowing it's there.

248. glendajean - 9/9/1999 6:46:26 AM

Irv -- take care of yourself. You're the only Irving Snodgrass that we have.

Majoribanks, btw, is back posting in tt, so I hope he knows about the Mote.

249. pellenilsson - 9/9/1999 6:52:12 AM

Yes, marj was aking about our URL because he lost it. I didn't want to publish it in TT and I forgot that peoples e-mail addresses are available there. I'll go over and mail now. On the other hand, somebody (Irv?) mentioned once that marj is a bit sloppy when it comes to checking the mail.

250. marjoribanks - 9/9/1999 7:24:28 AM

Hey, what a neat site. Thanks muchly AC, you're the man.

Irv,

The events of the past couple of weeks have been staggering, unbelievable. And I'm fairly sure it'll get worse and worse until the Timorese somehow give in to mere autonomy. What a complete disaster.

Anyway, I don't know if you've been checking it out but the coverage in the Independent (london) has been excellent and detailed. But it's all horrible depressing stuff in the first place.

---------------------

I will check in here regularly, perhaps permanently, when this site goes "live" to visitors. In the meanwhile, you can find me in one of three threads in TT's International folder. Irv may be interested in the Timor one particularly (though nothing remotely approaching the caliber of his own posts have been produced there.)

251. alistairconnor - 9/9/1999 7:29:12 AM

Hello Marj, glad to see you made it home... Check out the thread moderation features at your disposal. I just added a new one.

252. marjoribanks - 9/9/1999 7:48:50 AM

AC,

This place is a gem, an extraordinarily fine playground. May it flourish and develop into the finest meeting-place on the Internet.

I'm flattered that this thread lists me as moderator. And I will try to participate in it as much and as well as I can. Please let me know when we can start inviting vistors, there are several people I've encountered in TT who would be very good additions to our own small "International" coterie.

Also, thanks for the thread-hosting facilities. I can't wait to exercise their considerable scope. AC, you the man, you the man, you the man.

253. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/9/1999 11:15:28 AM

Marj:
It's great to have you back. I look forward to your participation here and your hosting of this thread.

We hope to go live any day now... Alistair is putting on the finishing touches.

254. PsychProf - 9/9/1999 11:26:01 AM

All that about Banks...me too...this site is awesome...

255. ProfEmeritus - 9/9/1999 11:29:02 AM

My friends over in TT were asking where I have been. I explained that I have pretty well accupied by working on a link between US and Indonesian universities to cooperate in plans to rehabilitate and develop the economy. This at the request of my Indonesian friends and colleagues. I was sort of considering a visit to Jakarta for this purpose, but that looks ever more dubious from the viewpoint of my family here.

256. Hashke - 9/9/1999 12:04:52 PM

Pak Gurubesar:

I just bhosted to you in Eclectic, so I won't repeat here. Anyhow, your Indonesian friends are fortunate to have you on bhoard!

257. cmboyce - 9/9/1999 12:48:20 PM

Marj, hello. Good to see you back. I lurk at TT (EIP; I didn't know about the others), but this is (as you observed) THE PLACE, Alistair being, as you also observed, The Man.

258. marjoribanks - 9/9/1999 12:50:10 PM

Pak Gurubesar,

Sounds like worthy work. They're lucky to have you.

Boyce,

It's good to see you around. Kindly testify as to your facial hair in the Quiz Thread.

259. ProfEmeritus - 9/9/1999 1:02:43 PM

Pak Marj

Thanks. it is great to have you back here. To use one of your favorite expressions, you're da man in the international thread.

260. Hashke - 9/9/1999 1:43:26 PM

marj:

You be somebody we can bank on.

261. ranheim - 9/9/1999 4:04:07 PM

On my way back from a funeral was listening in the car to NPR. General Henry Shelton of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (USA) was quoted as saying that the USA has no strategic interest/s in E. Timor. Should the USA be asked we would provide "logistical" aide.

The govt. USA is putting pressure on the IMF, the UN, our allies everywhere to, for the time being, suspend all financial aide to Indonesia. This was the 11AM central daylight news break.

Same news break - yet another earthquake in Turkey. How many of their people are going to end up in a tent city? Already, the Red Cross is begging for financial help.

262. alistairconnor - 9/9/1999 6:59:26 PM

"Six months after leading NATO into a 78-day air
war campaign to stop "ethnic cleansing" in Kosovo and serving
notice that it would not let such human-rights atrocities go
unchallenged again, the Clinton administration has decided to limit
its military role...." this is from the LA Times.

If this is indeed Clinton's response -- no-strategic-interests = not-my-problem -- then bye bye high moral ground. This is a betrayal not only of the Timorese, but of the Australians as well.

263. marjoribanks - 9/9/1999 7:09:19 PM

Connor,

It's been clear to me at least that the last two weeks and more have been a comprehensive manipulation and abandonment of the Timorense by the West. They are merely pawns being sacrificed, and while it is the militias and the Indonesian army responsible for the actual killings, the behavior of the moralistic US and UK in particular has been outrageously shabby. They helped force this fucking premature referendum on to the poor buggers and when the populace was brave enough to actually vote for autonomy they've been abandoned to what is probably outright massacre. The BBC says that more than sixty-thousand people have fled the region in the last two days, and you can bet pretty much the rest of the remainder will either follow soon or die miserably. It's really sad.

On the other hand, there is a woman at TT whose husband (Aussie military) has already been sent to Timor and is "a holding pattern." Most likely they'll simply evacuate their own staff and return. But maybe, just possibly, there is something else afoot.

264. cmboyce - 9/9/1999 7:10:50 PM

Very nice name, Marj--er Bhel?

265. marjoribanks - 9/9/1999 7:19:15 PM

Well, I'll remain Marjoribanks for a bit longer. I'm considering all the insult possibilities 'Bhel Puri' offers the likes of one nasty Pseuder, and while I can't come up with any really bad ones as yet, I'm thinking that he probably will. Marjoribanks is probably safer for now (and Pak Marj sounds much better than Pak Bhel to me).

And thanks for appreciating the name. It's nice and weighty and imposing isn't it? The best part is, it comes with cool thread-hosting toys. Which I will use to maximum effect.

266. cmboyce - 9/9/1999 7:28:05 PM

Haha! Sounds great. You can move PE into House & Garden if he gives you a hard time. And speaking of PE, does anyone know where he is and/or what his schedule is?

Also, I too (in addition to those who spoke at Beta) was hoping some of your TT posters would appear here; might they? (It would save commuting time. While I haven't searched at all carefully, I haven't seen much over there that I would regularly go to, besides yours--and I've been pretty irregular there, at that.)

268. alistairconnor - 9/9/1999 8:07:40 PM

Marj, if you can specify any of those advantages in a way that doesn't bust the paradigm... Would you mind moving 267 to the "features" thread? It's worth pursuing there.

269. ranheim - 9/9/1999 8:54:30 PM

Do any of you have the feeling that this administration is really bad at long range diplomacy. Seems to me that Clinton shoots from the hip : as in Kosovo; I doubt that we know the true cost of that venture as of yet. AND in encouraging the referendum in E.Timor; then leaving them in the lurch!

And for heavens sake! Let's get rid of this idea of quotas in the cabinet. Madeline Halfbright is not the answer as Secy of State.

270. marjoribanks - 9/9/1999 9:11:50 PM

Ranheim,

It hurts me to admit it because I voted for them twice, but this US administration has run a virtually incompetent foreign policy towards most of the world, and has occasionally acted in a criminally stupid manner.

There have been some very good and worthwhile moves (Ireland, Israel/Palestine to some extent, Haiti) but then there have been colossal blunders and hypocrisy (E. Timor, the bombing of the Sudanes pharmaceutical factory, the ongoing bombings in Iraq, the misreading of the Kosovo situation) and bewildering alliances and cozyings-up (China). When it comes to my own particular interest, India, Clinton has been far worse and far more negligent than any preceding Republican, or any President since 1947 (with the exception of Nixon).

And Madeleine Allbright is a disgrace, in my opinion totally incompetent and myopic.

271. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/9/1999 9:23:17 PM

This may sound strange, but I think that, for a change, the US position on East Timor right now is the correct one.

The pressure of losing all the promised international aid money is causing an enormous stir here, and is even getting through to the military. Remember, this is a country suffering a serious economic depression, and desperately needs to get its economy back on its feet. The majority of the people are not interested in the military saving face in East Timor and are only interested in eating.

An international invasion would be an act of war, and, like any country, you could count on the nation rallying behind its military when the nation is attacked. But a threat to cut off money is legitimate, and puts everything in a very different perspective. It is the one threat the military can't ignore, and can't fight by sending in more troops. Most people in Indonesia right now deplore the military's actions in East Timor, and the economic threat sends this message home even stronger. An international invasion would have the opposite effect.

If what the international community wants is an end to the violence in East Timor, the withdrawal of the Indonesian military and recognition of East Timor independence, then a non-military effort is the only one which has a chance of succeeding.

272. marjoribanks - 9/9/1999 9:32:17 PM

But Irv, the population of E. Timor is so small. They could be wiped out and expelled (and their houses and lands destroyed) within a couple of weeks. Kosovo all over again, or worse, maybe almost like Rwanda. Withdrawing the Indonesian military won't really affect the militias will it? They will have to be defeated at some time, why not now while they are still only beginning the process of massacre?

273. alistairconnor - 9/9/1999 9:34:27 PM

Irv, I saw a reference a couple of days ago about hundreds of demonstrators in Jakarta protesting the international conspiracy to break up Indonesia. Is this a significant current of opinion ? Are there more likely to be mass demonstrations against the military, or against the foreigners? Could it swing either way, in your opinion?

274. LadyChaos - 9/9/1999 9:35:29 PM

Irv,

You make some interesting points. My worry is that the situation will lapse into an international stalemate, with the Security Council imposing economic sanctions that over time give rise to a "thugocracy" of the likes we are seeing in Belgrade. It seems that the power elite of Jakarta are such types that the conditions may be ripe for such a development. Or am I wrong?

275. LadyChaos - 9/9/1999 9:37:28 PM

In deference to Marj's knowledge of the reason, I should point out that an unconsented to military invasion of E. Timor would be a logistical nightmare that would dwarf Kosovo.

276. alistairconnor - 9/9/1999 9:38:43 PM

How about an update on Indonesian civil affairs? Has the military really taken over? Is censorship really back in a big way? What about the democratic process? Will the military suspend the new assembly, or simply cow it?

277. LadyChaos - 9/9/1999 9:44:25 PM

That should be: "In deference to Marj's knowledge of the region. . ."

Lesson: Never continue posting while answering the phone.

278. ranheim - 9/9/1999 9:48:10 PM

I never liked JFK as president : he gave people high expectations. And as president, one can do virtually nothing to fulfill any populace's expectations. That could be de-stabilizing.

I strongly object to the USA encouraging a referendum in E.Timor - and then forgetting about them! EXCEPT monetary sanctions. What harm would have come from keeping out of the equation unless we planned to DO something actively.

279. marjoribanks - 9/9/1999 9:52:53 PM

LC,

Actually I know almost nothing about Indonesia other than basic history and geography lessons and what I've learned from Irv and Pak Gurubesar. However, I can relate very much to the situation in E. Timor because I come from essentially the E. Timor of India. Without excusing the Indonesian army and leadership at all, I think this referendum, at this time, was a disaster waiting to happen and now the Western powers aren't going to do anything while the relatively small Timorese population is massacred and booted from their nascent "country." I realize that an invasion would be foolhardy - but the US could push a hell of a lot more than it is now, as could the UK and other countries including the Netherlands. These countries have provided the majority of arms imports to Indonesia, have the coziest relationships with the Indonesian military, and are precisely the ones now hemming and hawing about a lack of "special interest" in the reason. Meanwhile, the poor buggers in E. Timor are getting thoroughy hammered. Two weeks is a long time when your population is so small and helpless. Again, I think the Rwanda analogy is not misplaced.

280. marjoribanks - 9/9/1999 9:55:17 PM

Wow, it's catching. "reason"= "region" in my post too.

281. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/9/1999 10:03:10 PM

Marj (272):
Invading East Timor wouldn't solve the problem of saving the Timorese. The only way to reach this goal is to convince the military to stop the militias. And the only effective tool the rest of the world has is economic aid.

If an international force invades, the following would occur:

• The Timorese would be wiped out
• The military would take over control of the nation
• Indonesia, as a nation, would be at war. Instead of elements of the miltary acting like cowboys, without the support of the people or the government (the current situation), the international forces would be up against the entire Indonesian nation, and the people would rally to defend their nation
• The economic morrass Indonesia has been sinking into would get much, much worse

I don't think any of those are outcomes anyone would like to see. Sure, it feels great to say we'll send in the troops and clean everything up, but it isn't that simple.

If the militias are disarmed and the military withdraws, the problem is effectively over. The militias are a very small minority. Their only advantage is that they are the only ones with weapons right now. If the military leaves, I would expect the militias would leave with them, rather than face reprisals.

alistair:
Any demonstrations against the international community are the usual military-instigated ones, and are a red herring. The large demonstrations in Jakarta right now are against the military. This, of course, would change if Indonesia were invaded. That is the only thing that could cause popular opinion to swing. Right now, popular opinion is overwhelmingly in favor of ending the violence and peacefully letting East Timor get its independence as quickly as possible.

282. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/9/1999 10:03:37 PM

LadyC:
The power elite and the military are two separate entities. The traditional power elite need the international money to get things back on track, and are opposed to recent military actions.

alistair (276):
Nobody really knows what is going on. Both Habibie and the military deny that the military has taken over, which doesn't mean anything. The buzz is that the military is now in control. But that could change. I have no idea what this means for democracy.

The military is trying to restrict the press, but a few media outlets are still reporting everything they can, including one TV station which shows terrible scenes of the carnage in East Timor. The media is resisting censorship, although a significant number of publications and TV stations have stopped reporting anything the military doesn't want to see.

283. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/9/1999 10:11:38 PM

ranheim & Marj:
I think the bellyaching about the US encouraging the referendum is misdirected. Please remember that the referendum was Habibie's idea, and he saw it as his chance to do something good and memorable. He correctly realized that East Timor was a drain on Indonesia financially, and more importantly, was doing great harm to Indonesia's international reputation. He saw his chance to correct his predecessor's greatest mistake, and help the Indonesian economy at the same time.

All blame should go to Habibie for failing to clear it with the military before embarking upon his initiative, and for failing to see and deal with the warning signs coming from the military in the run-up to the referendum.

It was only natural that the international community signed on to Habibie's initiative. I don't think it's proper to blame the US, the UN or any other countries.

284. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/9/1999 10:24:07 PM

ranheim & Marj:
I think the bellyaching about the US encouraging the referendum is misdirected. Please remember that the referendum was Habibie's idea, and he saw it as his chance to do something good and memorable. He correctly realized that East Timor was a drain on Indonesia financially, and more importantly, was doing great harm to Indonesia's international reputation. He saw his chance to correct his predecessor's greatest mistake, and help the Indonesian economy at the same time.

All blame should go to Habibie for failing to clear it with the military before embarking upon his initiative, and for failing to see and deal with the warning signs coming from the military in the run-up to the referendum.

It was only natural that the international community signed on to Habibie's initiative. I don't think it's proper to blame the US, the UN or any other countries.

285. marjoribanks - 9/9/1999 10:26:02 PM

Irv,

Thanks for the clarifications and reminders. Excellent stuff as usual.

However:

1) Don't you think it was stupid to hold this referendum now, before the rest of Indonesia had a chance to vote in the far more important national elections?

2) Didn't the International community seize on the Habibie offer with gusto? While making no provisions at all for the inevitable disaster?

3) Isn't the US military establishment, so long friendly with the Indonesian military, being hypocritical in immediately citing "no special interests" and actually terminating a relationship with it - a relationship it maintained through many many atrocities in the past?

4) You say that the Timorese will be totally wiped out if the international community takes an aggressive step. I'm sure you're right. But on the other hand if the "powers" don't at least posture aggressively isn't it just as likely that the Timorese will be massacred, wiped out, expelled? Actually I'd like to know what your take is on what is happening in E. Timor right now - what have you heard?

286. cmboyce - 9/9/1999 10:26:52 PM

IMO, there's absolutely zero chance of an invasion of Indonesia by the UN; it can't be done without the US, and even if it were wise (which, as Irv cogently points out, it isn't), Clinton isn't going to do it. It's just not his modus operandi; he kept us out of Bosnia (and if he hadn't, it might well have been worse) and got a Dayton out of it, and if he hadn't been pushed into action by an urge to put Monica on the inside pages, he'd very likely have gotten something like it from Kosovo. Unless one has to, or unless one can fully commit to a likely win, the military option is (again, imo--but I thinnk also in his) a poor last resort. And here the IMF gambit offers far more leverage for far less expense. And East Timor may come out of it at least as well off as Kosovo (but even if not, at least without the US and Australia et al running the risk of a major war in East Asia).

287. marjoribanks - 9/9/1999 10:47:30 PM

This may be valid and interesting, or it may not.

I find several interesting parallels and congruences between Pakistan and Indonesia right now.

1) Both have weakened figures in the top seat.

2) Both are being cajoled to take difficult positions by the IMF because both of their economies are in deep trouble and tranches of relief funds are scheduled very soon.

3) Both have armies which are the real power in the country, with shadowy secret security forces which work almost completely independently.

4) Both have grave internal problems with numerous potential flashpoints.

5) And in both cases I think you'll see a military takeover within the next year, with perhaps a declaration of emergency of some kind.

288. cmboyce - 9/9/1999 10:50:49 PM

Marj, with respect to your #285, I would like to respond to your points:

1. Yes, it was, but of course Habibie couldn't postpone his bid to satisfy
Indonesians until after the election, lest he not be in power after the
election. After the election, there would have been no very compelling
reason for Indonesian politicians to deal with E. Timor (except the
money drain Irv mentions).

2. Yes, they did, but why should they have not? The disaster was by no
means inevitable (I believe it was largely unpredicted until just a matter of
weeks before the referendum), and the opportunity to undo 1975 might
not have reappeared.

3.Well, yes, but hypocrisy is common enough coin--like a half-dollar,
not always employed but not less useful for that. And I should think that
maintaining relations in the face of this situation would be hard to defend
in any case, but least of all on grounds that it would be hypocritical to
abandon one's old buddies.

4. Maybe totally scorched earth is now impossible, but I'd think a
diplomatic end to the crisis is more likely to avert this result than a
full-scale war.

All that said, it's impossible to view this shit without wanting to see

[more]

289. cmboyce - 9/9/1999 10:51:04 PM

something done. (Perhaps the most significant effect of the
"communications revolution" in the middle term--beginning somewhere
around now, the short term having just expired--will be a tendency to
too-precipitate actions, in response to the capability of various
constituencies to become inflamed about too many things, in too many
places, in too short a period of time.) But while less satisfying to one's
sense of justice, back-channel compromises are probably the best way to
get this settled and restore some peace on the ground. And we shouldn't
forget that that, a moral imperative, is really the only motive anyone
farther away than Australia has to deal with this thing at all, as a practical
matter. I think we should be glad that such considerations have some
potency.

290. RickNelson - 9/9/1999 10:54:01 PM

That's depressingly realistic Marj.

I recall a close friend from college days. We would drink and chat, or chat and drink, whichever, his remarks of violence concerning Pakistan were not easy listening.

291. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/9/1999 10:54:37 PM

Marj:
1) Don't you think it was stupid to hold this referendum now, before the rest of Indonesia had a chance to vote in the far more important national elections?

Ummm, Marj... the rest of Indonesia already voted in the national elections, back in June. The window of opportunity for Habibie was the period between June and November. He probably won't be president any more after November, and his likely successor, Megawati, repeatedly said she believes East Timor is an integral part of Indonesia. For Habibie and East Timor, it was now or never.

2) Didn't the International community seize on the Habibie offer with gusto? While making no provisions at all for the inevitable disaster?

Of course they seized on the offer with gusto. It was coming from the head of state of Indonesia. I would imagine they assumed he had control of his military. I don't think the disaster was inevitable (although I predicted it back in February, when the offer was made). I think it was mishandled by Habibie from the start, and he hoped he could control it, and assured the world he could. I don't think he ever truly realized how the military would react.

3) Isn't the US military establishment, so long friendly with the Indonesian military, being hypocritical in immediately citing "no special interests" and actually terminating a relationship with it - a relationship it maintained through many many atrocities in the past?

It may seem hypocritical, but it is the right thing to do now, and should have been done long ago.

292. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/9/1999 10:55:07 PM

4) You say that the Timorese will be totally wiped out if the international community takes an aggressive step. I'm sure you're right. But on the other hand if the "powers" don't at least posture aggressively isn't it just as likely that the Timorese will be massacred, wiped out, expelled?

If you read what I've said, I am advocating that the "powers" act aggresively to immediately bring the killing and expulsions in East Timor to a halt. I believe that that aggressive stance should use the force which will work (economic force) rather than the force which is certain to make things much worse (military force). Military posturing by the West will make the Indonesian military dig in deeper, and risks firing up popular opinion in Indonesia as well. Economic action (rather than mere posturing) will get results.

Actually I'd like to know what your take is on what is happening in E. Timor right now - what have you heard?

The militias are still in control, and forced evacuations are continuing, but yesterday the killing seems to have come to a halt. UN officials ventured out of their compound for the first time all week, and saw no evidence of ongoing hostilities in Dili. They saw a devestated city, but were able to freely move around with no obstruction .

I think the pressure of losing international aid money has made the military look carefully at their options. The government and the media is scared shitless of losing the nation's financial lifeline, and it can't help but have an effect on the military.

293. marjoribanks - 9/9/1999 11:00:51 PM

Hmm, thanks Irv. Authoritative comments, and good news from Dili. Perhaps there is reason to be slightly optimistic.

I can't believe it slipped my mind that the vote in Indonesia was held some time ago. I can only plead jet-lag.

------

Boyce,

Good comments. I agree with your answers and analysis.

294. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/9/1999 11:11:58 PM

cm:
The international community seems to lose sight of one important factor when calling for Indonesia to be "punished."

An invasion, or even cutting off of aid, would hurt all the people of Indonesia, as well as the government, which has been fitfully trying to implement democracy and freedoms. It would play directly into the hands of the military, and give them a chance to take control of the nation.

The ones who need to be "punished" are the military (and not even all of the military, since many oppose what is happening), and I just can't see a way of doing that.

What is happening in East Timor is not supported by the people or the government of Indonesia.

The best option remains to scare the military into reconsidering its tactics, while maintaining popular support for an end to the violence and freedom for East Timor.

295. cmboyce - 9/9/1999 11:12:11 PM

Marj, #287 is certainly interesting. And certainly parallels are there, and I think the possibility of your predictions both coming true is a real one, but I think it may be less likely in Indonesia.

There are differences in the areas your points cover, I think.

1. Two weakened leaders, but Habibie is on the way out anyway, and the position of the Megawati government anent the military is not clear (at least to me), and the situation may not in the end redound to the advantage of the military, particularly if they lose their IMF money and have to suspend the troopies' pay.

2.True enough, but this, as I state above, may favor the civilian government as against military take-over artists.

3.Again, true. And if your predicted coups eventuate, this will constitute the main reason, in both cases.

4.True, as in many places. And one of them might blow up--indeed, one has, in Indonesia.

5. The prediction. And it may be so; I can't say I've comforted myself much by picking these nits. You may well be right--and I'll concede outright anent Pakistan, having no sense that I have any idea what's going on inside that benighted land--but after these weeks of reading here and in links from here, I have the impression that while the current crisis is dire indeed, that the potential for Filipino-style "people power" may be present; that the military may not be as monolithic, nor its hidden elements (the equivalents to Pakistans's ISS, or whatever it is) as powerful, as the darkest envisionings may suggest, and that the new legislature may be more surprising than its predecessors. Even if only two of these suppositions are only somewhat correct, I'd say there exists some hope for democracy.

296. cmboyce - 9/9/1999 11:15:51 PM

I see Irv has corrected me on many details, but I think (and I think he thinks, too [please amend as is appropriate, Irv]) he has only strengthened my proposition. While possible, a military coup seems a long way from inevitable, or even (though a less long way) probable.

297. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/9/1999 11:17:28 PM

Marj:
I agree with the parallels with Pakistan, except for this one:

Both are being cajoled to take difficult positions by the IMF because both of their economies are in deep trouble and tranches of relief funds are scheduled very soon.

There's nothing difficult about the position Indonesia is being asked to take. In fact, it is a position the people and the government already accept and support. The IMF threat is designed to shock the military into coming to its senses, and is a worthwhile move.

I certainly hope you're wrong about a military takeover of Indonesia, but I won't bet against it. I do think it can atill be avoided.

298. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/9/1999 11:22:33 PM

cm:
Very good and perceptive comments in 295. I certainly agree.

Yes, there is a possibility for people power to save the day for democracy here. The students, who always lead the way here, are already taking to the streets. We may come to an impasse where the military will have to attack the citizens of Indonesia or capitulate, and I think the military would lose if it comes to that.

the position of the Megawati government anent the military is not clear (at least to me)

It's not clear to anyone. Maybe not even Megawati.

299. ProfEmeritus - 9/9/1999 11:52:05 PM

I have read all the above excellent comments. Basically, I agree with the conclusions reached at this point in the discussion. It appears that no one is calling for rash action. I think the Australian media, for example, have gone too far in arousing the powerful latent nationalism in Indonesia. That remains the one fundamental driving force in indonesia's world position and her foreign policy.

The US must avoid thoughtless and irrational actions. Diplomatic efforts are the only way out of a tragic and repulsive situation. There are many diplomatic levers to pull, and it is my guess that much more is happening behind the scenes than we are aware of. Clinton hinted at this during his Press Conference today.

Diplomatic efforts include the threats of cutting assistance, but the more covertly these threads are made, the greater their chance of success. There is nothing more inflammatory to Indonesians, elite or hoi polloi, than being openly threatened by what they consider the Western ex-colonialists. If this negative reaction occurs in Indonesia as a whole, there will be no hope of salvaging East Timor and eventually creating a viable independence.

300. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/10/1999 12:08:11 AM

ProfE:
Excellent comments. Before you posted, I had just realized that I had not significantly stressed the danger of setting off Indonesian nationalist and anti-western sentiments. Thankfully, these have not been too apparent lately, although there have been some signs. But there is always the possibility that these feelings could be ignited.

The only thing holding them in check right now is that most Indonesians, including the media and government, realize that the rest of the world is right, and no one is fanning the flames. But if Western posturing and verbiage gets too heavy, logic goes out the window, and an emotional reaction could very easily occur and mushroom.

301. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/10/1999 1:31:36 AM

I just watched the noon news on TV here, and of course, nothing is clear. In the news today:

The rupiah strengthened today, and gained back all of what it had lost over the past week. And nobody seems to be able to say why.

Habibie gave a speech this morning, reaffirming Indonesia's commitment to upholding the results of the referendum. Habibie stressed that Indonesia's occupation of East Timor was never internationally recognized. He also called for an end to all violence there.

A Christian women's group held a rally deploring events in East Timor, and called for a complete diarming of the militias. They plan to meet with Wiranto.

An Islamic youth group called for Indonesia to break off diplomatic relations with Australia and New Zealand.

A leading political opposition figure spoke out against press censorship.

The UN is resuming its evacuation of its staff in East Timor.

Dili remains quiet, and is described by one reporter as a "ghost town." There are no reports of further violence in East Timor, although refugees continue to stream to the ports. They are being moved to refugee camps in western (Indonesian) Timor. Aerial TV shots of Dili show a deserted city with no traffic and no people outside, with a few fires still burning.

The news also included Clinton's speech cutting ties with the Indonesian military and an interview with Kofi Annan, who called for an end to the killing in East Timor. There was also a report that Portugal is ready to join an Australian-led force in East Timor.

I have no idea what any of this means right now. The spin will come later.

302. SnowOwl - 9/10/1999 2:05:20 AM

NZ has just severed all military ties with Indonesia. I'm sure that won't mean a damn thing to the Indonesians but I suppose it makes our politicians feel a little better.

303. pellenilsson - 9/10/1999 3:32:20 AM

Lurking and enjoying.

304. robertjayb - 9/10/1999 3:45:22 AM

A lengthy AP file from Jakarta with background on Gen. Waranto

305. robertjayb - 9/10/1999 3:59:47 AM

Gen. Wiranto

306. MrSocko - 9/10/1999 5:31:35 AM

Well, if the current situation in Indonesia makes anything clear it's that the country still is under tight military control. If the newspapers and television stations are practicing, as they clearly are, self-censorship, then that -- to take but one example -- makes a joke of the nation's claim to have moved on to civilian rule in the aftermath of Suharto's departure from the scene. Habibie is clearly a midget puppet, in every sense of the expression.

Above all, though, I still blame the Portugese for the current mess. Were it not for this ratbag nation hanging on to Timor Timur for as long as it did -- and then leaving it in a complete fucking economic mess -- then the chances are that it would today be a peacefully semi-independent part of Indonesia. The idea of Portugal leading some kind of peacekeeping force to save the province has to be considered a total joke.

307. pellenilsson - 9/10/1999 5:40:20 AM

MrSocko

Nice to see you back. I'm right now in another country which the Portuguese left in a mess - Mozambique. At least there is peace here now, but in Angola the civil war goes on. Portugal's way of disengaging from its colonies must be the worst on record. But one should not forget, perhaps, that at the time they had big troubles at home.

308. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/10/1999 6:12:31 AM

Robert:
As with most American efforts, the link you posted is very simplistic. It is, however, factually correct except for the fact that Suharto stepped down in 1998, not 1988.

Socko:
Nice to see you here. I'd like to see more analysis from you, in your role as the Mote's newest expert on Indonesian affairs. Plus, you've been in Jakarta more recently than I have.

Good comments on the Portuguese. I think their role should not be overlooked.

309. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/10/1999 6:32:13 AM

Habibie is clearly a midget puppet, in every sense of the expression.

310. MrSocko - 9/10/1999 6:37:47 AM

This issue of the Portugese is one I've put to marjoribanks in the past. Naturally it's a challenge he can't answer. To wit: If it was good enough for Goa to return to the Indian fold, then why the exception in the case of Timor and Indonesia? Oh, I know, I know, it's because the people there want independence -- but really, if the Portugese had disengaged at the same time as the Dutch quit Indonesia proper, there would have been every chance that the colony would have followed the obvious course in becoming part of Indonesia, to which it had the same kind of cultural and historical links as Goa to Hindustan.

As things stand, I suppose East Timor, which has not the slightest chance of ever becoming a truly independent, self-sustaining nation-state, will eventually become part of ... Australia. And then, in the fullness of time, 50 years or so down the track, there will no doubt be a rebellion against the dreaded Aussies, and so the tragedy will be replayed in some shape or other.

None of this is said to diminish the barbarisms currently being visited on the Timorese. Like anybody, I wish it would stop right away. I just cannot accept as axiomatic that this half-island should ever have been given a vote on succession, at least not at this point in history, when the wishes of the civilian figurehead of Indonesia bear scant relation to those of the country's real leadership, headed by one "President" Wiranto.

311. MrSocko - 9/10/1999 6:42:41 AM

Perhaps "President" Wiranto ought to do the proper thing and assume the Indonesian presidency. That way he could be held more accountable by the world for his actions. As things stand, the little puppet Habibie takes the rap for a situation that's clearly way beyond his control, while Wiranto stays at home with his mobile telephone and Richard Clayderman albums. (According to Asiaweek, Wiranto is a HUGE Clayderman fan. Doesn't that tell you everything about the man?)

312. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/10/1999 6:43:11 AM

The latest news out of East Timor reports that Xanana Gusmão's father, Manuel Gusmão (82), was among those killed by the militias this week. Xanana Gusmão is the most likely candidate for president of an independent east Timor, and this news is particularly chilling.

Also on the chilling front, the following report appeared on a prominent e-mail list today. It is unconfirmed and has appeared in no news reports. I cannot vouch for its accuracy, but if it is true, it would explain a lot:

"Rumor has it that Prabowo, Suharto's 'disgraced' son-in-law and former 'golden boy' (about whom US Sec. of Defense Cohen made glowing remarks during a visit to Jakarta in Jan. 1998), has recently slipped back into the country after staying abroad in Jordan and elsewhere since August 1998. Prior to becoming head of the dreaded Kopassus special forces, Prabowo cut his teeth so to speak as the mastermind behind the 'black ninja' death squad terror campaign in East Timor. From 1985 - 1998, every significant Jakarta operative in East Timor from the governor down to the village level has been a member of the Prabowo network. It is believed by some well-informed sources that Prabowo and his operatives have used the East Timor situation to re-assert their power after coming out on the losing end of Prabowo's failed power grab in May 1998 -- when Kopassus gunned down students at Trisakti university and instigated massive devastation, mayhem, rapes of Chinese women, and killings as a smoke screen to seize power. With Wiranto's so-called credibility on the line after the imposition of martial law, it is not Wiranto but Prabowo himself who can decide when the terror in Timor stops, and this is the bargaining chip Prabowo is using to re-assert his power in TNI. In other words, Prabowo has Wiranto by the balls and is using the unspeakable horrors in E. Timor as his bargaining chip.

[continued]

313. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/10/1999 6:43:53 AM

"Prabowo, moreover, controls a war chest of hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars, much of it coming from the business empires of his wife Titiek Suharto and his brother Hashim. Recently, it was revealed that US$250 million was missing from Cement Cibinong, the crown jewel in the Titiek-Hashim empire, which may have been used to bankroll Prabowo's black operations intended to undermine Wiranto and buy significant numbers DPR and MPR members to shore up Prabowo's political base. It is also believed that the 'black ninja' terror campaign in Java last year was the first stage in Prabowo's masterplan to reassert his power and undermine Wiranto. In order to turn off that campaign, it is alleged that Wiranto made certain concessions such as not pressing to court martial Prabowo or his operatives for the Trisakti killings and abductions and torture of government critics -- and not to purge members of Prabowo's extensive network from the ranks of TNI and its intelligence apparatus."

314. Uzmakk - 9/10/1999 6:49:50 AM

I have mentioned that I am trying to recruit a friend. He lives in Japan. Do we have anyone posting from Japan?

315. MrSocko - 9/10/1999 6:50:22 AM

Interesting material on the military. Like most everything else known about TNI, it begs an intriguing question: How did it happen that Java's gentle, pacific culture ever produce such a deeply corrupt army?

316. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/10/1999 6:53:37 AM

Socko:
You need to read up on traditional Javanese culture, in particular the concept of "power" (which is very different from anything in the West). Indonesia's armed forces are no surprise to anyone familiar with Javanese thought.

Uzmakk:
Not right now... recruit away!

317. marjoribanks - 9/10/1999 7:50:15 AM

"This issue of the Portugese is one I've put to marjoribanks in the past. Naturally it's a challenge he can't answer. To wit: If it was good enough for Goa to return to the Indian fold, then why the exception in the case of Timor and Indonesia? Oh, I know, I know, it's because the people there want independence -- but really, if the Portugese had disengaged at the same time as the Dutch quit Indonesia proper, there would have been every chance that the colony would have followed the obvious course in becoming part of Indonesia, to which it had the same kind of cultural and historical links as Goa to Hindustan. "

Psocko,

I told you then what I'll tell you now - beyond some superficialities there is no comparison between E. Timor and Goa worth making.

The superficialities: both were "invaded" by a giant neighbor to the accompaniment of UN hubbub, both were ruled negligently by the Portuguese for centuries (Goa for twice as long as Timor), and both probably "naturally" belong alongside if not necessarily within the polity of the big neighbor.

318. marjoribanks - 9/10/1999 7:50:32 AM

But don't let these blind you and don't obsess on them. The Goan nationalism that preceded the "invasion" by India was already very much directed towards "reunification" while the Timorese (the few educated Timorese) were already being led up the garden park by Portugal and others in the direction of "independence and the world stood by idly when the Indonesians embarked on that first killing spree ostensibly to wipe out a threat of communism. The Goan takeover, by contrast, was almost bloodless and eagerly rec'd.

Interestingly, the UN was persuaded to "not recognize" the Goan take-over as well and it was a contentious point at that world body until well over a decade later when Mario Soares finally "forgave" India.

Anothe crucial difference is that the country which "invaded" Goa was a democracy and been one for 15 years already. And they started their "rule" in Goa by immediately giving the people a number of referendums - did they want to be a separate unit, did they want to be part of a nearby larger state etc. The Goans resoundingly voted to remain a "separate unit" and while other small (but larger) ethnic groups still clamor for such status - Nehru put Goa on the track for statehood and for Konkani to become one of the official national languages. These things were achieved a while ago. In addition, Goans have had regular free and fair elections virtually from the day of takeover itself. Predictably they've voted in a series of colorful bozos and Indiots, but then that is the Goan way.

Hence, I think there are crucial differences between the post-colonial experiences in E. Timor and Goa that make any useful comparison impossible despite some links whic are apparently distracting you.

(BTW, I learned recently that my wife's great grand-father died and is buried in Dili).

319. marjoribanks - 9/10/1999 8:12:54 AM

Psocko, you should know that in the 38 years since the take-over by India there has not been a single serious Goan politician or political party which has called for Independence. There have been all kinds of absurd corruptions, a bewildering array of political parties and agendas, much rhetorical nonsense of a huge variety of types - but no one calls for Independence. A few months ago, after the latest round of political defections and yet another collapse of the majority in the legislature, a wide group of Goans even got up a petition to the central government which begged that the elections be suspended for a while and that Gov. Jacob (a jewish bjp man) be allowed to hold all powers. Yes, they actually begged that they be relieved of democracy for a while.

But no one has ever called for Independence. I think this is an important thing to remember before you make comparisons with E. Timor.

320. marjoribanks - 9/10/1999 8:18:37 AM

After not hearing of sleepy little Goa on the world stage for a very long time (except in reference to the hippy trail and its modern equivalent), now the small state seems to be cropping up all the time. In the past year I've read several references to the international legal actions which took place around and after the Indian take-over. Serbs have used it to justify aspects of their actions in smaller enclaves in the former Yugoslavia, Iraq made extensive use of it in their lengthy legal defense of the invasion of Kuwait, and now a few are commenting on it in the light of the Timor situation. It's quite interesting, I wonder who will lean on it next.

321. stostosto - 9/10/1999 8:29:58 AM

marj! you rotten old biker!

Where have you been?!!

322. marjoribanks - 9/10/1999 8:39:12 AM

Very interesting greeting stostosto.

I've been in TT, as bhel puri, of course. With three weeks or so off-line in England and France in between.

323. Rivendell - 9/10/1999 12:45:17 PM

I've commented on this to Irv before, but I wish the Aussies would quit with the saber rattling over E. Timor. The Australian contention that the U.S. has abandoned them if we do not join them in a military invasion is absurd. The U.S. certainly has a long history of capriciousness and convenient forgetfulness when it comes to our treatment of allies, but there is no logical reason for the U.S. to do the same kind of military posturing as Australia in this situation.

However, I do think this is a good example of how Clinton's domestic blunders have damaged his credibility on the world stage.

324. RustlerPike - 9/10/1999 12:55:43 PM

Psock:

Welcome back and happy New Year!


Has the Mote gang yet discussed Israel's Supreme Court's decision last week that all forms of 'physical pressure' - i.e., torture - in interrogations by the shabak secret service are illegal?

This decision was arrived at unanimously by a special panel of 9 judges.

Many Israelis, me included, are somewhat scared by this. No longer may the shabak use physical pressure - not even sleep deprivation! - to force information out of its prisoners. I wonder what this will do to the service's ability to prevent terror attacks. It looks like a case of preferring a detainee's right to a good night's sleep over my right to sleep soundly. Certainly won't do much for the shabak's deterrence capability.

Oh, and, incidentally, we handed over another 7% of the West Bank to Yasir today.

325. marjoribanks - 9/10/1999 1:00:47 PM

Pike,

You want a sub-thread on Israel to be placed on the News list? Like Pelle's Maputo Diary? For a day or two? It would be great to hear from you in detail. Of course here is good too, but I like my toys and want to play with them some more.

326. marjoribanks - 9/10/1999 1:13:33 PM

Any other takers?

327. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/11/1999 1:29:08 AM

More Views on East Timor

As with my post yesterday, the best source of news these days is through internet mail lists. I just received the following message, from a former government minister who maintains what is possibly the most respected mail list on Indonesia. His views are certainly worth listening to.

"My personal impression is that at the moment there is no case of imminent Habibie resignation. But he is battered alright and. I think, losing out. There is no "coup d'etat" of Wiranto against Habibie. Wiranto thinks very "constitutional". He and Habibie need each other. Of course Wiranto may have persuaded Habibie to agree with the army's line of imposing martial law in East Timor and refusing the help of a UN peacekeeping force, for the moment. Habbie cannot afford to overule Wiranto. I heard that Wiranto has asked for two weeks time to restore order in TimTim. There are the first indications of abatement of extreme violence. There is reasonable chance that within two weeks a semblance of peace and order could be established.

"On the other hand, there is a strong grassroots movement, of students, women movements (mothers and their children are always the first victims of violence) and other NGOs, who have demanded repeal of martial law and bringing in an international peace keeping force because the army cannot be trusted, and entrusted, for safeguarding peace and order, and absence of violence, because of their historical and "emotional" ties with the militia. For these mothers and young activists the human sufferings in East Timor is much more important than the feelings of pride of the army.

[continued]

328. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/11/1999 1:30:56 AM

"Wiranto and the top military leaders in Jakarta apparently do not want to risk a show down with the commanders in the field in East Timor. It is the same tactic when Wiranto faced the situation in Jakarta in mid-May 1998, and how he dealt with Prabowo and the Kopasus. Well, in the end it may work, but at the cost of how many civilian lives?

"The situation in Jakarta will unfold at a frustrating pace, culminating in the MPR session in October/November.

"The economic recovery has been derailed by the Bali Bank scandal and the (East Timor related) sanctions of the western donors, including the IMF and the World Bank. But yesterday the rupiah has rebounded to stronger than Rp 8000 per US dollar (after momentary hitting Rp 9000). However, that was more related to the "confession" of Rudy Ramly, when he was grilled by a parliamentary commission whether or not he did write the signed statement. (He did not write the letter himself, and was loudly applauded).

"I think in another two weeks the East Timor violence will subside, but the bitter after taste will last forever and the image of Indonesia in the public eyes of the world has perhaps been irreparably dented.

"But the face of the new Indonesia is not only what the world sees in East Timor. I hope that in the months and years to come the nation can make sincere progress with social and political democracy and establish a reasonably clean government. That includes finding an acceptable solution for the Aceh problem (and crisis), and in the background also meeting the demands of the regions for more elbow room to manage their own life and development.

[continued]

329. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/11/1999 1:32:09 AM

"Best scenario for Indonesia: First, the Timor Timur crisis will not last more than a month. Better yet if Wiranto makes a goodwill gesture to the international world, inviting a contingent of UN peacekeeping force after he reestablishes peace and order (and to give the UN mission personnel a greater sense of security), say two weeks from now (he can deal from a stronger hand). Second, the October-November MPR produces a non-Habibie broad based government, where the major parties (PDI-P, Golkar-Akbar Tanjung, PKB, PAN, the military, perhaps even PPP) will share power. Such a government may not be the most effective in (economic) policy making, but can lead the basis for "national reconciliation". Economic policy making should be left to a technocratic team which can work well together with the IMF, the Bank and the major donor countries."

[end]

330. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/11/1999 1:43:33 AM

Selected quotes from reports appearing in Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post:

"And I think here the international community has to be very, very careful. There are forces in Indonesia who are opposed to President Habibie's offer of independence to East Timor." [said Dewi Fortuna Anwar, Habibie's adviser]

Ms Anwar said the international community risked weakening "the very government that is totally committed to ensuring a peaceful solution to East Timor".

"They are going to threaten the [return of] right-wing nationalist forces in Indonesia who are not going to honour the results of the ballot," she said.

"You have to understand the situation in Jakarta two months before [the] presidential election, the stakes are very high . . . these people are not interested in a truly democratic transition for Indonesia," Ms Anwar said.

"These people" are the generals in the armed forces and in the cabinet who are happy to use the carnage in East Timor as an excuse both for whipping up anti-foreigner nationalism and for a potential bid for power.

[continued]

331. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/11/1999 1:44:13 AM

"It's Habibie against the cabinet, but the cabinet is also divided - between the civilians and the military. [said a former cabinet member.]

"They each hate Habibie, but for different reasons."

The Foreign Affairs Department regards the East Timor debacle as an "international policy fiasco", whereas the Home Affairs and Information departments, both led by active generals, see Mr Habibie's acts on East Timor as a failure to hold the nation together.

Armed forces chief General Wiranto is effectively in charge of Indonesia, diplomatic sources said yesterday.

Sources attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (Apec) summit in Auckland said beleaguered President Bacharuddin Habibie might still be at his desk, but the general was the one pulling the strings.

[A close friend of Wiranto’s] believed General Wiranto had undoubtedly set his sights on at least the vice-presidency, if not the presidency, but that he would choose his moment and his preferred constitutional route to power as carefully as his mentor, former president Suharto, did for 32 years.

"He will be silent for a long time, will move decisively when he decides to, and you can be sure any games he plays will have many sides, many layers," said another friend.

[end]

332. RustlerPike - 9/11/1999 3:48:55 AM

Marj:

I don't get it. Isn't this the thread for international stuff?

333. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/11/1999 3:54:05 AM

Rustler:
Please post about Israel. I'm interested.

Wrt your earlier post -- it's dangerous when you start condoning torture. How do you know it's always the bad guys you're questioning?

334. RustlerPike - 9/11/1999 4:04:06 AM

Irv:

Are you still at your Fr... e-mail? I sent you something. Forwarded, rather.

335. RustlerPike - 9/11/1999 4:06:00 AM

Wait, I get it: marj was offering me a promotion! Sure marj, I accept (it's the Rosh Hashana weekend, I have time. Sorta).

336. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/11/1999 4:10:49 AM

Rustler:
I'll check that e-mail, which I have to do on another computer, since I screwed up the e-mail on this one.

Are you supposed to be posting on Saturday, on Rosh Hashanah? Isn't that taboo or something?

337. RustlerPike - 9/11/1999 4:26:00 AM

Irv:

1. Please don't tell God. {#:-)#

2. I think you may be thinking of Yom Kippur, but I don't even fast then, much less stop writing. I just don't drive because ultra-religious kids would pelt me with stones if I did. Rosh hashana is, for most israelis, just a holiday when the family gets together, sings a couple of songs no one remembers the words to, and dip apple slices in honey. We also send everyone we know greetings wishing them a sweet year and stuff like that.

(My firm did a New Year's greeting for a strategic consulting firm called GCS, which is comprised of the staff that advised Barak in the election: James Carville, Robert Schrum, Stanley Greenberg and 3 other guys. The copy on the front said 'it's not whether you win or lose...' and then on the inside it continued: 'it's how large a margin you win by.')

3. I'm non-observant, as are most Israelis.

4. Try this link for "Haaretz" on the Supreme Court Decision.

338. RustlerPike - 9/11/1999 4:29:52 AM

There's a link at the bottom of that article to another item on the subject, specifying the kinds of torture that are now illegal.

339. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/11/1999 4:33:57 AM

Rustler:
No, I'm aware that Yom Kippur is the day of atonement, and is a serious time. I was just teasing you about posting on a Saturday and a major holiday, since I knew about your #3 above.

340. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/11/1999 4:39:44 AM

Rustler:
Thanks for the link (though you should learn how to make links appear in a new window).

My opinion above about torture stands. It's all fine if you have a murderer on your hands, but how can you know you have the right person?

341. RustlerPike - 9/11/1999 7:49:57 AM

You torture him and find out?

342. RustlerPike - 9/11/1999 8:01:29 AM

More seriously:

1. Torture sucks - though if read those links, you'll find that what the court was talking about is not what one thinks of as the worst form of torture: no sticking matches under fingernails and stuff like that. Still, it's far from being fun, and people have been known to die under shabak interrogation.

I think the idea is that the shabak combines intelligence through snitches and electronic or other surveillance, with torturing people. Supposedly - and I'm talking before the ruling, the shabak was only supposed to use torture (the phrase employed by the Landau Commission was 'moderate physical pressure') in cases known as 'ticking time bombs': you have someone in your hands who you think knows about an imminent terror act, and you can prevent the act by forcing it out of him.

Still, that ruling was widely seen as one that made toture 'kosher', while this one does the opposite, though there is still a very narrow loophole for torture in 'ticking time bomb' cases.

343. marjoribanks - 9/11/1999 2:10:20 PM

Well, I'll bounce some ideas of the people here before this thread starts anew. Which I'm amenable to.

Since this group is already blessed with two excellent commentators from two fascinating parts of the world, I think Irv and Pike should get sub-heads where they can continue to post extensively on Indonesia and Israel.

The main body of the thread should be for the usual goings on about this and that, arguments, punditry, etc. And for discussing the news of the day. I envisage a set of about twenty links to various regular publications and one-off articles of interest. I hope the list will be so good, and the discussion and opinion here so compelling, that it will draw a large number of visitors daily. Of course, we need everyone's help in this.

I also think the Diary feature is very neat, and Pelle is showing the way in his Maputo reports. We should keep this as a permanent feature and I think it will prove very successful. It could be the de-facto travel thread, actually.

And yet another-sub thread should be ready for individual and lengthy interesting discussions. Having a separate thread for this would keep the discussions more on-thread and focussed. I think. A good one we could try out would be a China discussion anchored by Pincher and Loar, if these gentlemen are willing.

---------------------------------

Comments and criticism are welcomed.

344. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/11/1999 2:14:29 PM

Marj:
Let's keep everything in here until we reach critical mass. Then we can consider sub-threads.

345. KuligintheHOOLigan - 9/11/1999 2:21:42 PM

Namibia is a dry, hot country.

I hope that wasn't too complicated of an analysis! :)


Actually, it is ridiculously cold here right now. A cold front moved in on the Cape and last night it dropped to 2C!! In the middle of September that is just nuts!

346. marjoribanks - 9/11/1999 2:24:26 PM

Fine by me Irv. The Maputo Diary is a very nice sub-thread all by its lonesome. I will ask Pike what he thinks, I do think a thread permanently dedicated to each of you two guys would be a good idea, however I certainly agree that some critical mass must be established first.

347. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/11/1999 2:29:29 PM

Vic:
Is it springtime yet?

Please, tell us more about the country. Have a look at Pelle's posts on Mozambique... he's on the other side of the continent from you.

348. KuligintheHOOLigan - 9/11/1999 2:30:13 PM

What am I missing on the "sub-thread" bit? I can't find the Maputo Diary anywhere.

349. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/11/1999 2:31:43 PM

Vic:
It's linked from the Home page (to the left of the list of threads).

350. KuligintheHOOLigan - 9/11/1999 2:32:14 PM

"Springtime" is a relative term here! The winter usually ends at the latest mid-to-late August, but even then it has warmed up considerably.

It isn't uncommon to go below freezing in the winter here, and with no heat in the house, that can be downright terrible! But for it to be so cold in mid-Sept, not just at night but even today it was miserable, is odd to say the least.

I'd be happy to share more about Namibia in the future, but I'll wait until they "zero" this thread.

351. KuligintheHOOLigan - 9/11/1999 2:33:10 PM

Thanks Irv!

BTW, I did some major planting a couple of weeks ago preparing for the spring warm-up. This cold weather may threaten that now!

352. ScottLoar - 9/11/1999 7:58:38 PM

Bhel Puri, I accept the invitation. International at Table Talk is, on the average and quite objectively speaking, piss poor in talent, knowledge, experience and expression.

353. marjoribanks - 9/11/1999 8:14:57 PM

Loar,

I'm very pleased to see you here.

TT had its pluses and minuses in my opinion. I'd be glad to see several of the inhabitants of that forum here.

Anyway, this is your home. Please feel completely comfortable.

354. ScottLoar - 9/11/1999 8:18:04 PM

You may never know how much I truly appreciate that.

355. marjoribanks - 9/11/1999 8:31:41 PM

Loar,

I sincerely hope that you will be part of this developing, unique, little gathering-place.

356. Angel-Five - 9/12/1999 1:00:22 AM

I have been pondering East Timor somewhat.

I have the luxury of pondering, since I don't actually live there and don't have to worry about being dragged out of my bed and having my throat cut...

I am blessed with a few good friends, who are knowledgeable in matters of international affairs. In discussion with them, the notion came up that while humanitarianism is rather nice, in situations like East Timor it carries a very heavy price tag, and while if there were actual genocide going on, we would have to intervene, yet if it were only some other form of violence we should abstain from intervening...

And this seems to be a common yardstick. I've heard it bandied about on the talkies and in the papers. And most people generally agree that there is no genocide in East Timor today -- just civil violence.

My point is this: why should genocide be the decisive factor, and how did this arise? IS it because of the Holocaust? Are there no other conditions in which we should intervene -- is only genocide worthy of humanitarian intervention?

Don't get me wrong -- though I'm aghast at the things I read in the papers, I'm not arguing that we should deploy troops into East Timor. I do believe that it won't really help -- and if Kosovo is any indication, we'll get there too late as it is. I am also aware that there has to be some level of arbitrary judgment involved when we choose what crimes are too horrid to countenance and which ones we must stomach for economic reasons. But why should we have chosen genocide?

357. MrSocko - 9/12/1999 3:34:06 AM

Re # 316 (IrvingSnodgrass):

You need to read up on traditional Javanese culture, in particular the concept of "power" (which is very different from anything in the West). Indonesia's armed forces are no surprise to anyone familiar with Javanese thought.

This is interesting. Could you please expand a little here. What is the Javanese concept of power? Has anybody written (in English) about it?

358. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 3:42:21 AM

Socko:
I'm sure someone has, though I can't think of any sources offhand. A little searching in a good library will probably turn up something... I know I've come across works written in English before.

In Javanese culture, power is obtained through mystical or spiritual means (meditation, magic, etc.) and is used to further one's interests, with no holds barred. As long as one's power remains strong, one can do anything. Once one loses that power, one is destroyed (the popular consensus is that Suharto lost his mystical grip on a very strong power last year).

The leaders of the armed forces are very much into these beliefs, and this is why it is often hard to gauge their actions by western standards or traditional logic. The actions they take are often designed to retain their grip on this power, rather than to achieve any visible outcome.

I use the term "power" here, and other sources I've seen do, too, but the word in Indonesian/Javanese is "kesaktian" (from the Sanskrit "sakti") and means a superhuman power or ability bestowed by the Gods, for either good or evil purposes.

359. marjoribanks - 9/12/1999 8:42:14 AM

"the notion came up that while humanitarianism is rather nice, in situations like East Timor it carries a very heavy price tag, and while if there were actual genocide going on, we would have to intervene, yet if it were only some other form of violence we should abstain from intervening..."

A5,

I don't think there is any such standard in effect. And there is generally no international consensus on these matters. What is genocide anyway? The word is bandied about a hell of a lot, including with regard to E. Timor. Was the massacre of the Tutsis in Rwanda genocide? I'd say so - but the international community certainly did nothing about it.

In the case of E. Timor, it is now hard to know what is happening in that benighted little nascent country. There could well be massacre continuing on a massive scale, certainly hundreds of thousands of refugees have poured out of the country, and remember a good quarter of the population has already been killed since the Portuguese decamped. Is that genocide? I don't know.

But I do know that there is no real pattern to intervention by the US and other powers.

360. marjoribanks - 9/12/1999 8:45:27 AM

Irv,

The Timor situation is falling slightly off the main headlines. I wonder if you woud be kind enough to provide an update here on what is bein said and broadcast in Indonesia about the ongoing crisis. And what your predictions are for the coming weeks.

One pressing question I have is - where are the fleeing Timorense going/ To West Timor only? Or to other islands as well? Have any turned up as faraway as Bali? And what are the stories these guys are telling? Is Dili still quiet?

361. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 9:08:10 AM

Marj:
There's not much news here, either, though for a very different reason: under the terms of martial law, no journalists are allowed in East Timor.

I did get the following e-mail today from a friend here who has been listening to the radio:

"I've been listening to the news from Australia via the Net - latest is 50,000 refugees in a town 9 Ks from Dili have been surrounded, not by militias, but by TNI troops, led by Kopassus (sound familiar?). The story is they're getting ready for an attack on the 15th. This from phone calls in the refugee area to Australia. Meanwhile, not a whisper on the local news, of course. I better turn off the damn Internet - it's too frustrating hearing this stuff. And Indonesia rejected an international force, claiming it's not necessary. Sure, it's not necessary if the goal is to slaughter East Timorese."

The papers here report that conditions are still extremely unsafe, and the killing continues, though at a slower pace. The UN has evacuated most of its staff.

Pro-independence leader Xanana Gusmão called upon all of his followers to not fight back. Gusmão himself is stuck in the British Embassy in Jakarta, where he has been since being freed from prison last week. He has vowed not to go to a third country, but will return to East Timor as soon as he is certain he won't be shot down upon arrival.

362. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 9:18:28 AM

As for the coming weeks, I don't see any quick resolution to the crisis. Eventually, the Indonesian parliament will accept the results of the referendum when they meet in November, and East Timor will be free. I think it's clear that when the military leaves, the militias will leave with them. But what will happen before then is hard to say. I expect that the military will make a show of taking control of the militias and disarming them over the next two weeks, while looting and burning and destruction of infrastructure continues. I have a feeling the military wants to leave behind an East Timor with nothing left in it except people.

One pressing question I have is - where are the fleeing Timorense going? To West Timor only? Or to other islands as well? Have any turned up as faraway as Bali?

As far as I know, they have only been taken to refugee camps in West Timor. I haven't heard of any refugees being taken elsewhere, and there have certainly been none turning up here in Bali.

And what are the stories these guys are telling? Is Dili still quiet?

They tell of horrid conditions in the refugee camps, and sickening stories of militia killings and destruction in East Timor. The militias have targeted Catholic priests and nuns in particular, and there may be none left in the province.

Yes, Dili is quiet, but only because it is a ghost town, without people. According to Gusmão, anyone who wasn't shipped to West Timor or killed has headed for the hills, where large numbers of refugees are gathering without any sort of organized assistance.

363. RickNelson - 9/12/1999 9:19:36 AM

News from the t.v. this morning 9/12/99 8am Minnesota time

President Clinton has decided to allow U.S. troops to join the peace mission to E.Timor. The Indonesian government having just agreed to that mission.

364. RickNelson - 9/12/1999 9:21:11 AM

New Zealand seems to be a major player with the decissions. Clinton is there right now, or was.

365. marjoribanks - 9/12/1999 9:21:33 AM

Thanks Irv. I'm sure you've read this horrific reportage from the Sydney Morning Herald.

I must ask for your own personal hunch on this. It looks very much to me that the E. Timorese who voted for Independence are either going to be wiped out or displaced completely in these few days before Indonesia chooses to or is compelled to withdraw. What is your take on it? Do you think E. Timor will ever become a country as per the referendum?

366. marjoribanks - 9/12/1999 9:23:20 AM

Ignore that last paragraph Irv, I see you've answered my question already.

367. RickNelson - 9/12/1999 9:26:54 AM

Read the Christian Science Monitor this morning. It headlines "Indonesia to allow peacekeepers".

368. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 9:28:37 AM

Rick:
As far as I know, There is no truth to reports that Indonesia has agreed to an international peacekeeping force.

Marj:
My hunch is that East Timor will be independent when the Indonesian parliament meets and ratifies it. Even the military won't be able to ignore that certain step. But Indonesia can't be pushed into moving up the schedule... they get very stubborn in the face of international pressure.

The refugees will all go home then, and they will begin trying to pick up the pieces and put together a devestated nation. It will require massive international aid. Even after things are restored, aid will become a permanent requirement, for, as Indonesia discovered, East Timor is a net drain financially, and will never be able to carry its own weight.

369. marjoribanks - 9/12/1999 9:30:55 AM

The most complete coverage I could find is here, at CNN. Two crucial parts - (1) it's not immediate, the Indonesian Foreign representative has to fly to NYC to work out details through the UN, this could take a couple of weeks (2) Clinton has only promised "limited" troops.

370. RickNelson - 9/12/1999 9:37:19 AM

The Straits Times
9/12/99

HEADLINE NEWS
Wiranto ready to allow peacekeepers in
JAKARTA -- Looking shocked as he toured Dili with a group of UN Security Council envoys yesterday, military chief General Wiranto indicated he was now prepared to allow foreign peacekeepers into East Timor soon. SUSAN SIM reports.

371. marjoribanks - 9/12/1999 9:43:22 AM

Same story, slightly more detailed, from the NYTimes.

372. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 9:49:54 AM

Well, I'll believe it when I see it. I note that Habibie made the announcement, and he isn't the one calling the shots. I'd be surprised if Wiranto backs down that easily.

I also note that the military spokesman, Gen. Sudrajat, is telling obvious lies (and that CNN gets his rank wrong... he is a Major General, not a Brigadier General). This concerns me, since Sudrajat has been very open and quite honest up to this point. I know him personally (he once joined my family for Thanksgiving dinner at our house), and he is a man of high integrity. If he's lying, there must be some pretty incredible pressure being brought to bear on him.

Marj, you really need to learn how to make your links open in a separate window.

373. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 9:59:09 AM

The NYT report is interesting, for those of us who have learned to read between the lines of what Indonesian officials say. For example, Habibie refers to people being killed in the "conflict." Is it a conflict if only one side is fighting?

Or this:

"Habibie said Indonesia's troops had tried hard to quell the violence, but had been affected by psychological problems in dealing with a "very complex problem.""

The "psychological problem" is that the Indonesian troops are under orders to do nothing, or maybe even under orders to assist the militias. In addition, the militias are largely made up of East Timorese former members of the Indonesian armed forces and police, and it's difficult to expect soldiers to fight against their former associates, especially when those former associates are in favor of uniting with the soldiers' nation.

If the international peacekeeping deal is a fact, it is a very good thing, since it is the only way things will ever be settled in East Timor. The sooner, the better.

374. marjoribanks - 9/12/1999 9:59:36 AM

I know how, Irv, it just somehow seems like more work than is justified.

375. MrSocko - 9/12/1999 10:03:08 AM

RickNelson:

The Monitor doesn't publish on Sundays, or Saturdays for that matter. You must be reading Friday's edition ... by the way, Clinton has done little in NZ other than shop in downtown Auckland.

IrvingSnodgrass:

How do you think the democratically-minded in Java will view the situation in Timor? Will the thirst for political change that we've all seen in the past 18 months, among students and the middleclass, extend to wishing the East Timorese well in their quest for self-determination? Or is nationalism a more powerful force, even among the nation's budding Jeffersonians?

376. RickNelson - 9/12/1999 10:08:08 AM

It will be interesting to see how long it really takes for the force to arrive. It needs to set up too. Hope the violence doesn't go up in the mean time.

Habbibie is dispatching his delegate to the U.N., if his input is needed before the start that's more than twelve hours right there of twiddling thumbs. Doen't Indonesia have a permanent delegate stationed at the U.N.. Perhaps it does, I would like to know. Then he's there and the ball can get rolling. So, I'm thinking two days, maybe three to get advance forces there, then set up time, etc...


Where's those hawks who know all this stuff. Or Irv do you know how the U.N. gets going? IF it's going to go. Which the writing on the wall indicates troops are going. Marj you know this U.N. stuff don't you, what's the scoop?

377. RickNelson - 9/12/1999 10:13:04 AM

Mr.Socko,

The date of the headline reads 9/12/99. Does this mean the internet version posts scoops? I don't know. But, that's the date on top.

378. marjoribanks - 9/12/1999 10:14:09 AM

Rick,

The Indonesians can easily buy themselves a fortnight through hemming and hawing at the UN. Furthermore, if they have even the slightest doubt or quibble about the consensus at the Security Council the deal will be shot as China will veto.

It is entirely possible that this is a mere tactic designed to buy enough time for the militias and the army to "change the facts on the ground."

379. marjoribanks - 9/12/1999 10:20:30 AM

Psocks,

I responded at length to your "question" regarding Goa and E. Timor. No comments?

380. marjoribanks - 9/12/1999 10:48:03 AM

An outstandingly lucid survey of the Twentieth Century from the Economist. It could be a good place to start a discussion if anyone is interested.

381. marjoribanks - 9/12/1999 11:20:34 AM

Wow, New Delhi has a vegetable store on line. My aunt sent me this URL to check it out, she says she now buys most of her vegetables through Baba Baazaar. You may find the selection interesting (42 rupees= $1).

382. RickNelson - 9/12/1999 11:28:52 AM

What part would you start with Marj?

383. RickNelson - 9/12/1999 11:31:16 AM

Most excellent site for vegetables...

384. marjoribanks - 9/12/1999 11:31:33 AM

Vegetables. Rick. The place specializes in fresh vegetables.

385. RickNelson - 9/12/1999 11:32:25 AM

Hahahahahahahah....eh......whew!

386. marjoribanks - 9/12/1999 11:36:19 AM

Though the fruit selection isn't bad.

Notes:

a) I have never heard the word "sharifa" used for the custard-apple. It's normally "sitaphal" and is different from the "ramphal" (for which I don't have a clue as to the English word.

b) Delhi is the only place in India where you can get "Western" stuff like grapefruit and artichokes. The large international contingent buys them.

387. RickNelson - 9/12/1999 11:36:43 AM

Com' on 'xcuze me after two kopi susu pekat.

388. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 11:36:54 AM

Marj:
Opening links in a new window is always justified.

Socko:
As I think I've indicated several times recently, most Indonesians, particularly the educated and democratically-minded ones, are in full support of east Timor's independence, and are aghast at the actions of the military. These people are pissed off at some of the saber-rattling recently by Western nations (university students here in Bali burned an Aussie flag yesterday and made the front page of the paper), but their nationalism doesn't include killing, burning and looting. If an international peacekeeping force is allowed in, these people will be very relieved.

My hope is that after things cool down, an independent East Timor, led by Xanana Gusmão, will be able to work with Indonesia and maintain positive relations. Gusmão continues to insist this is what he wants, and most Indonesians admire him and want the same thing. Gusmão is a great man, and represents the only real hope for the new nation, which will be starting with so little.

Rick:
It will be weeks before any UN peacekeepers arrive, if everything goes well.

389. ProfEmeritus - 9/12/1999 11:38:43 AM

Amid all this furor over East Timor, someone should complain about the jailing of a Canadian journalist by "Little Suharto" in nearby Malaysia. This is a striking example of denial of press freedom which was a hallmark of the "New Order" in Indonesia.

390. ranheim - 9/12/1999 11:45:08 AM

The National Security Advisor, Sandy Berger, was interviewed on ABC's THIS WEEK Sunday morning. I learned a new verb : effectuate.

Berger suggested that the USA's contribution to an UN Force in E. Timor will be transportation and communication. There is, possibly, some thought that as Australia has backed the positions of the USA since WW II, now that Australia has requested "aid" from the USA, we "owe" it to Australia to act upon their request. Any UN Force, according to Berger, is going to be 'Asian'.

I am beginning to wonder if there is another USA doctrine : the Clinton Doctrine. Whereby, the USA can and may intervene in any nation of the world should our definition of a humanitarian outrage be committed.

Did Clinton not say that the USA was not going to become the "policeman of the world?" Or did I hear incorrectly?

391. ScottLoar - 9/12/1999 11:45:32 AM

We may not agree but surely we can understand why the press is restricted in countries - because the general population is lightly regarded as unable to discriminate between fact and fiction, easily roused to destructive passions that are not easily quelled, and that the greater good is being served by the secrecy of the authorities. I know many intelligent, well-travelled and well-read persons who subscribe to this view although all to my recollection are Asians. I know many parents who subscribe to this view.

392. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 11:52:42 AM

ScottLoar:
Indeed that is a very common belief in Asia. However, the results of the Indonesian experience over the past year seem to indicate the opposite: that an informed and educated populace is less likely to be influenced by rumor and innuendo. I shudder when I think what this past year would have been like without a free press here.

393. marjoribanks - 9/12/1999 11:57:50 AM

In light of Loar's comments above, let me give you the example of Goa (again).

There is complete freedom of the press, and an open and free democracy. Yet, with the exception of a couple of good newspapers like O Heraldo the popular media consists of dozens of scurrilous little papers and magazines specializing in innuendo, character assasination and agenda-peddling. Libel laws are almost useless, so anyone in the public eye has to put up with literally dozens of slanderous claims, epithets, and unprovoked and undocumented attacks.

And democracy has been nothing less than a running joke with a bewildering array of parties, defections, vote-buying, corruption and venalism of all different types. It seems to be in the very nature of Goans to be disorganized and merrily bumptious. In fact, I'll repeat - the Goan electorate got so pissed off recently that they mounted a broad coalition of people to beg the Centre to actually suspend democracy. Predictably, they were informed that this would be contrary to the Indian Constitution and the tamasha continues.

But what is the alternative? I'd rather have the merry chaos of Goa today than suppress these freedoms.

394. ScottLoar - 9/12/1999 11:58:17 AM

I agree with you, IrvingSnodgrass, but the populace as children in the care of father-mother officials is a general fact of Asian politics so I'm not surprised or particularly disturbed when journalists or publications are shut down for violating local law. I did not construct that notion, the history and experience of the locals did.

395. RickNelson - 9/12/1999 12:00:31 PM

50 yrs. old he decided to serve the time immediately rather than post bail. He wants to be reunited with his wife and children.

Is going to make a stir larger than here?

396. ScottLoar - 9/12/1999 12:00:48 PM

The press without responsibility breeds yellow journalism begging for official restraint.

397. ProfEmeritus - 9/12/1999 12:01:02 PM

I want to add that the Indonesian elite outside the Suharto clique never accepted that "Asian" view of restraint of the press. Many were jailed and otherwise squelched for voicing criticisms of the restraints on free speech, whether in the media or in academia. The present Indonesian Ambassador to the US is a case in point. He was jailed by Suharto for his liberal views of freedom of expression.

398. RickNelson - 9/12/1999 12:01:39 PM

395 is in response to 389.

399. marjoribanks - 9/12/1999 12:01:56 PM

On consideration, I don't think there is anyplace in the world that I know of that wouldn't be appropriate for a free press.

400. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 12:04:04 PM

ScottLoar:
I agree completely with your 394. It's why we find a prosperous and educated society in Singapore under strict press controls.

401. ScottLoar - 9/12/1999 12:07:53 PM

I think it ridiculous as well that a society as sophisticated, as educated, as prosperous, as stable, as deserving as Singapore's is subject to government censorship, but Singaporeans accept so and are among the archest defenders of censorship.

Again, if the press does not assume responsibility for factual, ethical reportage then institutions come into play, either by gross censorship with black lines and bold proscriptions or by libel laws and tortes.

402. ScottLoar - 9/12/1999 12:09:27 PM

And make no mistake about it, I believe the free press in Indonesia is absolutely vital to Indonesians' understanding of East Timor.

403. marjoribanks - 9/12/1999 12:11:22 PM

Well, I've never heard a decent argument from a Singaporean as to the existence of strong press censorship in that country. The people are well-educated and hardly likely to be prone to violence. The only reason is to prevent criticism of the government and exposure of official corruption. And perhaps after the old fellow dies the situation will change very fast.

404. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 12:16:41 PM

ScottLoar:
It's amazing how quickly popular opinion about East Timor changed once the press was freed. Previously, most people had actually believed the government line that the people of East Timor were all happy campers who were grateful to Indonesia for giving them so much. When the truth came out, most Indonesians were outraged at the lies they had been told, and support for East Timor to continue as a part of the nation disappeared.

Marj:
Official corruption in Singapore? There's no such animal, unless you mean vote-rigging and political manipulation. Financial corruption is almost unknown (much less than in Western nations).

405. ScottLoar - 9/12/1999 12:16:48 PM

I had understood that in ratings of surveys on the degree of government corruption conducted by the Far Eastern Economic Review for example, businessmen consistently rate Singapore and New Zealand as well-nigh vigin clean of corruption. My personal experience and knowledge suggests so as well. So, I don't believe censorship in Singapore is designed to cover official malfeasance, but is directed to morally instructing and fostering a disciplined society.

406. RickNelson - 9/12/1999 12:16:59 PM

Do old values of the strong mother inlaw, living with her son's family hold on in Singapore?

407. ScottLoar - 9/12/1999 12:21:14 PM

RickNelson, hell, no. Singaporean women are among the most independent I've ever encountered with their 5 C's: Credit card, career, condo, car and cash. Ain't no mention of man there, only beast.

408. marjoribanks - 9/12/1999 12:25:24 PM

Corruption in the sense that the judiciary is hand-and-glove with the rulers, and a case against the government is impossible to win.

But Loar, "moral guidance"? Isn't that a farce? The only time Time and Newsweek (or the Herald Tribune) is censored when they say something remotely critical of the government. The rest of the pap sits easily with the supposed arbiters of "moral guidance.

409. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 12:30:26 PM

Marj:
Ok, that's the sort of corruption I figured you meant. It's important to make the distinction, because the garden-variety financial corruption found in most of Asia is not present in Singapore.

ScottLoar:
Very true about Singaporean women. They are a breed apart from other women in Asia.

410. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 12:33:52 PM

Marj:
Loar is right about what Singapore considers "moral guidance"... the banned books, movies and videos, the Indonesian radio stations jammed, the internet sites blocked, the music censored, etc., to remove those awful Western values. Censorship goes far beyond criticism of the government, and permeates every aspect of daily life.

411. marjoribanks - 9/12/1999 12:39:55 PM

Hmmm.

I suppose so, Irv. However, I cannot think of a place in Asia as thoroughly Westernized as Singapore.

412. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 12:41:30 PM

Well, Marj, that raher proves the point about the futility of censorship, doesn't it?

413. marjoribanks - 9/12/1999 1:18:27 PM

It does, Irv.


Unrelatedly, there is a fascinating cover article in today's Independent. The most telling part in it is the fact that a man was able to drag a trunk of the most secret KGB files out of Russia with him. What a shambles that place must be.

414. marjoribanks - 9/12/1999 1:28:35 PM

Actually, it was six trunks.

415. ProfEmeritus - 9/12/1999 7:19:55 PM

Rick

Re your #395. I ubderstand that Murray Hiebert lost his appeal against his contempt-of-court conviction and was sentenced to jail and ordered to begin his sentence immediately. The case is scary because Hiebert was convicted of contempt after he wrote an article criticizing a frivolous suit by the son of a judge of the Malaysian Court of Appeals. At least this is the impression I get from todsy's NYT report. Am I missing something?

416. Angel-Five - 9/12/1999 7:31:26 PM

Thank you, Marj, once again.

Peacekeepers to be deployed.

417. ScottLoar - 9/12/1999 7:39:27 PM

Without UN or neutral troops on the ground policing the area Mary Robin's comments, if accurate, are grossly impolitic at this point. The UN high commissioner for human rights sounds like a herald for the Lord High Executioner from the Mikado - part tragedy, part comedy.

418. Angel-Five - 9/12/1999 7:50:28 PM

Mary Robinson? What's she said other than referring to the reports of atrocities -- many of which are coming from UN personnel?

419. marjoribanks - 9/12/1999 7:53:22 PM

A5,

I can't see your Guardian article, for some reason.

Loar,

Your comment, while brief, is succinct and rigidly accurate.

420. Angel-Five - 9/12/1999 7:57:18 PM

Marj:

Go to www.guardian.co.uk
and click on the 'breaking news' link, which is under the 'news unlimited' header. There's a free registration process that you might have to undergo.

421. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 8:01:53 PM

Angel:
Mary Robinson is accusing the Indonesian government of complicity (something which there has been no evidence of, and lots of evidence against), and is making threats to bring the responsible parties to justice, which is not a good idea right now, before the peacekeepers arrive, and quite likely an impossible task in any event. The mission of the peacekeeping forces is to end the killing and save lives. If Mary Robinson wants to extend that mission to bringing members of the Indonesian military or government to international justice, she puts the entire mission at risk.

Please learn to make your links appear in a new window.

422. Angel-Five - 9/12/1999 8:04:13 PM

Hmm. Let's see.

423. marjoribanks - 9/12/1999 8:04:59 PM

Irva,

Please post today's reflections on the situation in Indonesia. We would all really benefit.

424. Angel-Five - 9/12/1999 8:09:58 PM

When I do < a href="www.guardian.co.uk" target="new" >link< /a > sans the spaces, the browser tries to open up www.themote.com/www.guardian.co.uk. Even if I take out the target.

425. CalGal - 9/12/1999 8:11:40 PM

Angel,

That's because you're not including the http:// part. If you click on the HTML assistance link above the posting window, it gives the procedure.

426. Angel-Five - 9/12/1999 8:12:50 PM

Yep, just saw that.

427. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 8:13:22 PM

Angel:
Well, at least the bad link opened up in a new window. Your first link above worked, so you should be able to get it right.

Marj:
It's 8:00 in the morning. I haven't even looked at today's paper, and I haven't been outside yet to feel the pulse of the nation. I'll let you know.

428. Angel-Five - 9/12/1999 8:15:04 PM

www.guardian.co.uk and then click on breaking news.

429. marjoribanks - 9/12/1999 8:17:46 PM

Irv, you're a slacker. I would have imbued the atmosphere even as I slept.

430. Angel-Five - 9/12/1999 8:21:51 PM

There's no evidence that the Indonesian Government is complicit in the violence?

It probably isn't the best time to bring it up, sure.

431. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 8:22:37 PM

Marj:
I would have imbued the atmosphere even as I slept.

Well, I did that. The atmosphere was air-conditioned as I slept, and one of the neighbors is burning some trash. Plus, someone has to teach that stupid rooster that 3:00 in the morning is much to early to start cockadoodledooing.

Unfortunately, there were no mentions of the East Timor problem in any of the atmosphere.

432. marjoribanks - 9/12/1999 8:24:55 PM

Irva,

Try leaving the radio on next time, that is before you waste precious hours "sleeping."

433. ScottLoar - 9/12/1999 8:25:31 PM

I, too, found that cocks do not crow at dawn but at three o'clock as I learned on my last few trips to Saigon. Surely several thousand people heard the damned thing as well as I.

434. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 8:26:29 PM

Angel:
Have you been following the story? I don't know where to begin if you haven't, except to ask you to read the back posts in this thread. If you think the Indonesian government has been responsible for anything happening in East Timor, you are seriously mixed up. Unless you are taking the military line and blame everything on the fact that Habibie held the referendum.

435. CalGal - 9/12/1999 8:26:57 PM

It's funny--marjori said that ET has been out of the news lately? Yet I've been laughing at how prevalent it is right now. All the Sunday talk shows are on it.

It's been great knowing the background through reading your posts, Irv.

436. Angel-Five - 9/12/1999 8:29:40 PM

It was my understanding that the Indonesian military was de facto condoning the violence in East Timor, that this was likely a top-down decision, and that nobody tells Wiranto what to do. 'Complicit' might not have been the best word but 'innocent' surely is not.

437. Angel-Five - 9/12/1999 8:33:17 PM

Was I wrong?

438. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 8:34:44 PM

Bingo, Angel! And the government has no control over the military, as has been proven decisively in recent days. Wiranto has been telling Habibie what to say, and when he can speak. Please keep the separation between the govt and the military clear... it's a crucial point.

439. Angel-Five - 9/12/1999 8:34:56 PM

Sometimes I wonder, Irving, if you are not a closet monarchist.

440. Angel-Five - 9/12/1999 8:35:58 PM

Disregard last post.

441. ProfEmeritus - 9/12/1999 8:38:00 PM

Habibie certainly did not want nor encourage the events in East Timor,and Habibie is the essence of the government. If the military was involved, as seems likely, it was without the approval of Habibie and it now appears of Wiranto. Mary Robinson certainly jumped the gun, and this is not the first time she has been precipitous. If her view had predominated, the behind the scenes maneuvering that has had this positive outcome would never have succeeded.

442. Angel-Five - 9/12/1999 8:39:18 PM

Is it at all possible that the reason the government hasn't controlled the military is that they are afraid to? And in their lack of spine, they are essentially covering up the atrocities of their own military?

I guess it's really easy for me to say that. I don't have to hold press conferences with a soldier standing behind me. But it still strikes me as negligent.

443. ScottLoar - 9/12/1999 8:40:52 PM

And the question of Wiranto's motive? In another forum (which I've abandoned) it was held that Wiranto was the typical Asian strongman, crude, "like a primordial beast in the jungle" satisfying his own appetites by eliminating or sacrificing anyone for power. I suggested to great ridicule that fear that an independent East Timor would diminish or lead to the dissolution of Indonesia was the primary concern of Wiranto and the Indonesian military, a professional class. What's your read, IrvingSnodgrass?

444. Angel-Five - 9/12/1999 8:41:26 PM

There was that little bit where Habibie said something and then Wiranto went to straighten him out, and I expect that it may be better for Indonesians for Habibie to not precipitate an immediate coup, but one would think that there are other options.

445. ScottLoar - 9/12/1999 8:44:29 PM

I also suggested and do so here, that ambassadors and plenipotentiaries were obliged by protocol to call upon Habibie as head of government, but that Wiranto could be addressed directly by his counterpart, say the US commander of regional forces who, I believe, visited Wiranto Thursday. The import of this, and the consequences of the meeting, seem lost to the press and commentators as of this date, or so it seems to me.

446. marjoribanks - 9/12/1999 8:55:03 PM

The latest headline on E. Timor from The Independent.

447. marjoribanks - 9/12/1999 8:57:34 PM

" reports from East Timor suggested there was no let-up in the terror. In the town of Dare, 10km from Dili, panic spread among 30,000 refugees who have taken sanctuary near a Catholic seminary.

David Wimhurst, the Unamet spokesman, said: "The Indonesian army is advancing up the hill, slaughtering refugees. There must be immediate international intervention to stop the attacks and killings."

In Darwin yesterday the UN Commissioner on Human Rights, Mary Robinson, raised the possibility of war crimes prosecutions of Indonesian generals: "Thirty-thousand people could be being killed as we speak, and we don't know, and we can't be sure."

Church sources in Darwin said that a Dutch-born Indonesian priest, Karl Albrecht, was shot dead at his home in Dare, while other reports suggest huge numbers of displaced people are at risk of starvation.

Up to 300,000 of East Timor's 850,000 people have been turned into refugees and many are said to be foraging for bananas and roots in the jungle, under constant threat of attack.

The East Timorese guerrilla leader, Xanana Gusmao, warned of a humanitarian disaster. "We are facing a situation whereby the whole population of East Timor has been uprooted and is displaced and devoid of any means of survival," he said. "

448. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 9:14:01 PM

Angel:
Is it at all possible that the reason the government hasn't controlled the military is that they are afraid to? And in their lack of spine, they are essentially covering up the atrocities of their own military?

No, not at all. The reason the government hasn't stood up to the military is because they can't. The military has made it clear they don't take Habibie seriously from the start. And why should they, since they have all the power and don't give a shit about democracy or the will of the people?

ScottLoar (443):
I suggested to great ridicule that fear that an independent East Timor would diminish or lead to the dissolution of Indonesia was the primary concern of Wiranto and the Indonesian military, a professional class.

I agree with your read of the situation, and it's the conventional wisdom here. If you were ridiculed for posting that, you were dealing with uninformed parties.

There is another factor which has begun to come to light recently, and I await further developments, and that is that Wiranto has no control over the rogue elements of the military in East Timor. These units (called Kopasus), supposedly are still loyal to discredited General Prabowo, the son-in-law of Suharto, and are still taking orders from Prabowo. According to some sources, Prabowo is using the atrocities of his forces as a bargaining chip to be reinstated. He, supposedly, has said that he can have all violence stopped instantly if he is welcomed back into the military. Wiranto, obviously, is going to great pains to keep this covered up. This would explain Wiranto's about face on the peacekeepers, in that he would rather give in to the UN than give in to Prabowo. I don't know about the truth of this story (which I first posted here a few days ago), but it would explain a lot.

449. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 9:23:19 PM

Angel:
There was that little bit where Habibie said something and then Wiranto went to straighten him out, and I expect that it may be better for Indonesians for Habibie to not precipitate an immediate coup, but one would think that there are other options.

I would guess he's trying the other options. The fact that peacekeepers have been invited indicates he's had some success. However, I'm also sure Habibie's under no illusions that he has any control of anything any more.

450. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 9:27:49 PM

ScottLoar (445):
Good point. I think it's fair to assume that Wiranto would only be willing to listen to another military man. He's made it excruciatingly clear lately than he has no patience for politicians.

451. Angel-Five - 9/12/1999 9:49:30 PM

So Wiranto is Prabowo's stalking horse as far as the UN is concerned, and he is also the fulcrum which Prabowo would use to lever himself back into the comfy chair.

Why would Wiranto go to great pains to cover this up, unless he himself were more complicit in the matter at hand? IT doesn't seem that he's terribly concerned about any skeletons rolling out of the closet at this point, so I doubt his silence has been bought by blackmail. OR am I wrong?

Could it be that for Wiranto to reveal that Prabowo is levering him would indicate that he's lost his grip on that Javanese power concept you alluded to?

452. Angel-Five - 9/12/1999 9:56:33 PM

You called Prabowo the 'golden boy' earlier and alluded to his tie to Suharto. Is Prabowo -- or should I say could Prabowo -- have any tie to the current leadership, and be their last-ditch way of keeping Wiranto in check?

453. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 9:58:01 PM

Angel:
To let it be known that he doesn't have complete control of the armed forces is something Wiranto simply wouldn't do. Doesn't that make sense?

454. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 10:01:59 PM

Marj:
Thanks for the link to the Indpendent. The Dare situation and the people heading for the hills were reported here by me yesterday from my sources... it's nice to see them confirmed in the international press.

I see Mary Robinson is still shooting off her mouth. She really shouldn't be making speculations like "Thirty-thousand people could be being killed as we speak, and we don't know, and we can't be sure." The 30,000 number seems very unlikely, and is nothing more than tendentious. Even if it turns out to be true, it isn't her role to say things like that. She's risking the entire mission before it even gets started.

455. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 10:07:27 PM

Angel:
You called Prabowo the 'golden boy' earlier and alluded to his tie to Suharto. Is Prabowo -- or should I say could Prabowo -- have any tie to the current leadership, and be their last-ditch way of keeping Wiranto in check?

The "golden boy" appellation came from a report I posted. It wasn't my term. He was indeed the golden boy under Suharto, and after Suharto fell, Prabowo was kicked out of the military and sent off to exile in Jordan for his role in a large number of killings committed by his Kopasus forces, culminating in the Trisakti killings last May, which set off the riots (and his role in instigating the riots).

I am quite certain that Prabowo has no ties to the current gang in power. He is, and always has been, only looking out for himself. He was once considered the top candidate to replace Suharto. The current leaders, as well as the military, are not likely to have any interest in working with him.

456. alistairConnor - 9/12/1999 10:16:23 PM

Irv,
I heard on the radio a few minutes ago that the Australians are saying it will take them "at least 48 hours" to get troops to East Timor. I am amazed that there is a possibility of it happening so quickly That was such wonderful news that I am pinching myself and looking for independent confirmation.

It would seem to me that any international force would need a heavy escort of legitimist Indonesian troops, i.e. loyal to Wiranto, in order both to avoid battles and to be effective in stopping the slaughter.

Can it really happen so soon? Those U.S. generals must have been pretty damn effective with their back channel stuff.

457. ScottLoar - 9/12/1999 10:22:24 PM

Kopassus (one of the variant spellings I've seen) is an elite force although the comparison to US Special Forces seems forced. Prabowo is married to one of Suharto's daughters, yes?

I do see the end of this affair as the regular army reasserting influence and control throughout all its members, Kopassus be damned.

458. ScottLoar - 9/12/1999 10:24:04 PM

Sorry, you already mentioned Prabowo was son-in-law to Suharto. I suspect Wiranto is the professional and Prabowo the opportunist in this affair.

459. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 10:28:18 PM

Alistair:
I've seen the same figures in the Indonesian press today. The only problem is that Indonesia has made clear it doesn't want any Australian troops. Indonesia has said it wants troops from "friendly" nations, and provided a list which included the following: Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Thailand, and Cambodia. Hw quickly can the Kiwis get there?

Indonesia is apparently ready to accept troops as soon as they can get here, and it is expected to be days, not weeks.

I agree that it is important to include Indonesian troops (but no Kopasus). If nothing else, they'll see how a real army operates, for a change. If Indonesian troops are included, it will help Indonesia save face, while defusing any trouble such as Indonesian troops have been causing or allowing to happen.

460. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 10:32:14 PM

ScottLoar:
Kopassus (one of the variant spellings I've seen) is an elite force although the comparison to US Special Forces seems forced. Prabowo is married to one of Suharto's daughters, yes?

You're right... the correct spelling should be Kopassus. And it is more of a gang of thugs than what we think of as "Special Forces." Prabowo is married to Suharto's daughter Titiek.

I do see the end of this affair as the regular army reasserting influence and control throughout all its members, Kopassus be damned.

I certainly hope so.

I suspect Wiranto is the professional and Prabowo the opportunist in this affair.

Absolutely, though the jury is still out on Wiranto. He plays his cards close to his chest.

461. alistairConnor - 9/12/1999 10:33:44 PM

One would expect Wiranto to take this opportunity to disband this Kopassus outfit, if they are such a dangerous independent force. Or is he in fact powerless to do so? In any case, his political career will be short indeed if he can't exert control over the army.

462. ScottLoar - 9/12/1999 10:35:59 PM

However, one US general (source? Christ! Buried somewhere among the clutter of foreign press on East Timor) was quoted as holding Wiranto in high regard as a professional military man, and please recall Wiranto's public support of the new government when Suharto was obliged to step down even though Habibbie remained the King of Comedy.

463. SnowOwl - 9/12/1999 10:36:16 PM

Irv,

Our PM, Jenny Shipley, is recalling Parliament next week to discuss the possibility of sending troops to East Timor. She has said she doesn't want to proceed without full discussion. From what I understand, all major political parties support the idea of NZ troops
going to East Timor. I could hazard a guess that preparations are already underway and by the time Parliament okays it the troops will be ready to go. That won't be until next week though, which might be getting late.

464. Angel-Five - 9/12/1999 10:37:03 PM

To let it be known that he doesn't have complete control of
the armed forces is something Wiranto simply wouldn't
do. Doesn't that make sense?

Yes. The silence seems an awful risk, given that it's almost certainly going to emerge that Indonesian soldiers committed war crimes in ET. With what has happened in Yugoslavia, you'd think the international community will likely make Wiranto's resignation a condition of continuing aid... if it emerges that the military committed atrocities. If Wiranto waits until after the fact to implicate Prabowo, no one will believe him.

It seems Wiranto is riding the tiger, yes? And people are dying because he is paralyzed.

465. ScottLoar - 9/12/1999 10:39:00 PM

Special forces are an important adjunct to any army but it's the elitist and separatist notion that's to be uprooted. US Army commanders objected to the existence of US Special Forces which were saved from demise by an impressed J.F. Kennedy who thought they were perfect to manage Communist insurgencies in small nations. Oh boy!

466. alistairConnor - 9/12/1999 10:39:42 PM

Well, Clinton just said in Auckland that it's not up to the Indonesians to pick and choose who is in the international force. He also made some noises about there probably being some US forces on the ground there too. But the reality is that the Australians are the only people with a significant number of troops ready to go.

It is very, very important to get other nations represented: Malaysia and Thailand in particular: but as for New Zealand... Well, we could probably send 300, but only after the end of the APEC talkfest, which is over-stretching all security forces here.

467. ScottLoar - 9/12/1999 10:40:58 PM

Wiranto is not "paralyzed". He's a general commander too far removed from the field but not paralyzed.

468. alistairConnor - 9/12/1999 10:43:43 PM

And as for the great statesperson Jenny Shipley... "Our PM, Jenny Shipley, is recalling Parliament next week to discuss the possibility of sending troops to East Timor."

- What a ninny she is. What on earth makes her imagine that it is necessary to recall Parliament? Just &%^%8^& do it, Jenny.

In fact, she is pissed off as hell that this Timor business has upstaged her fifteen minutes of international fame. HER apec conference.

469. robertjayb - 9/12/1999 10:43:46 PM

Thomas Pickering, a U.S. under secretary of state, spoke on CNN this morning of forces(undefined) going in within 72 hours. I thought that seemed unlikely but it does match the "at least 48 hours" report heard by alistairConnor.

470. Angel-Five - 9/12/1999 10:44:41 PM

If Wiranto is a professional and Kopassus is a dangerous, disobedient band of killers and thugs who aren't operating under his orders, and to reveal this treason would both disarm Prabowo and ensure that no war crimes proceedings will be taken against Wiranto... you'd still think it would be revealed. It might look a little dodgy for Wiranto but it would a) give him a chance to save the situation and be a hero, b) render his enemy impotent and c)provide a nice cover to purge the army of disloyal elements. Kopassus is the scapegoat and Prabowo takes the fall. That's realpolitik.

Irv, Loar, I will defer to your knowledge of the culture -- but is Wiranto's need to seem in complete control something that would actually trump the above factors?

471. ScottLoar - 9/12/1999 10:45:26 PM

Clinton's comments about the composition of the international force being not at Indonesia's discretion are unnecessarily petty and so grossly impolitic. Too much loose-mouth let go in the press.

472. alistairConnor - 9/12/1999 10:47:36 PM

I just got back from an anti-APEC demonstration. Young, smallish crowd shouting anti-corporate capitalism slogans in the pouring rain. Made me feel young again but I wish I'd brought my wet-weather gear.

Favourite slogan of the day:
Tahi, rua, toru, wha, APEC leaders, haere ra.

473. Angel-Five - 9/12/1999 10:48:11 PM

Wiranto is not "paralyzed". He's a general commander too
far removed from the field but not paralyzed.

By 'paralyzed' I meant unable to act against Prabowo. What has he done there? Deployed troops? The troops are firing on civilians.

474. God - 9/12/1999 10:53:50 PM

I often wonder how many of you critters there'd be if you didn't spend all your time killing each other.

475. ScottLoar - 9/12/1999 11:00:23 PM

I don't know the extent or composition of the regular Indonesian army in East Timor,nor the numbers of Kopassus, nor their missions. In other words, I'm ignorant of the order-of-battle and for me to speculate that Kopassus is doing the killing is irresponsible. I had thought that the paramilitary groups were doing the killing, terrorizing the population and firing on anyone - Timorese or Javanese - who tried to leave. This is the spasm following a vote of 78.5% for independence. The police are at best cowed as well or at worst in open collusion with these groups. If Kopassus is killing in East Timor does it do so on the direct orders of Prabowo? I don't know that and I doubt it. What does seem apparent to me is that command - especially the regular army - has little control over the events in the field. I may be wrong.

476. ScottLoar - 9/12/1999 11:01:15 PM

Well shit, God, ain't you the one supposed to know?

477. Angel-Five - 9/12/1999 11:01:36 PM

From the Guardian (I would link but there's apparently a registration process you have to go through to read the link:)

AUCKLAND, New Zealand (AP) -
President Clinton welcomed Indonesia's
reluctant acceptance of an international
peacekeeping force in East Timor and said Monday that the mission will require
``some presence on the ground'' of U.S.
forces in the terror-ridden territory.
Clinton told reporters that the United
States would supply planes and pilots to
transport troops from other nations and
help with logistics, communications and
intelligence. He also said U.S. officials
might play a role in the ``command and
control'' of the operation.

``All of that would require some presence
on the ground in East Timor,'' the
president said. ``But no one has asked us
for any combat troops.''

...
Clinton had accused Indonesia's military
of aiding and abetting savage violence in
East Timor after it voted overwhelmingly
for independence, and he had been
rallying support for the peacekeeping
mission among leaders at the annual
APEC meeting.

After Indonesia bowed to pressure, Clinton
praised Habibie.
``The most important thing is for President
Habibie to make good on his statement,
the details worked out, get the force in
in a hurry,'' Clinton said.

478. Angel-Five - 9/12/1999 11:02:35 PM

One potential snag was the composition
of the peacekeeping force. The
Indonesians have expressed reluctance
about allowing the Australians to lead it.

``That has to be worked out today,''
Clinton said. ``But my view is we should
work with the Indonesians in a cooperative
fashion. Perhaps they should have some
parallel presence, even.''
``But they should not be able to say who
in or not in the force, and what the
structure of the force will be, otherwise it
will raise all kinds of questions about
whether there will be integrity in the force.
And it will also delay the implementation,''
Clinton said. ...

479. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 11:06:35 PM

alistair:
One would expect Wiranto to take this opportunity to disband this Kopassus outfit, if they are such a dangerous independent force. Or is he in fact powerless to do so? In any case, his political career will be short indeed if he can't exert control over the army.

We'll find out if he has the power to disband Kopassus. The reports on the Dare situation indicate that it was led and organized entirely by Kopassus forces, and not the ubiquitous "militias." Your reading seems accurate to me of Wiranto's chances if he can't take control.

ScottLoar (462):
Many here, including Megawati, hold Wiranto in high regard. I do recall his support for the changeover last year, when he could have made a mess of things by sticking with Suharto. It has been reported widely here that he seeks the presidency for himself, or at least the vice presidency.

On the other hand, his handling of Habibie last week indicates a clear disregard for democracy. I don't think anyone knows what Wiranto is thinking or what he really wants, and that worries me.

SnowOwl:
I find it interesting that Indonesia specifically requested troops from New Zealand. The two nations have ceratinly always had a friendly relationship, but NZ did withdraw all military aid last week.

480. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 11:07:03 PM

Angel:
it's almost certainly going to emerge that Indonesian soldiers committed war crimes in ET

I don't think there's any doubt about that, though I find it hard to label the atrocities "war crimes" when there has been no war. Is it a war if one side is unarmed and doesn't fight back?

I think if it is clearly shown that Wiranto didn't commans the rogue forces in East Timor, it will be hard proving him a party to the atrocities. Everyone is better served by a centrally controlled military, and I would be much happier seeing the rogue forces and their leaders to be the ones punished.

Of course, if Wiranto was involved, the equation changes. And we don't know yet.

alistair:
I think that Indonesia's wishes for a largely Asian or regional force will be honored. But the press today is indicating that the forces will include Australians, and Indonesia doesn't seem to be making a major issue of that, thankfully.

481. God - 9/12/1999 11:08:40 PM

Here's a newsflash. Every army in the history of the world commits war crimes. Pump up a bunch of kids with adrenaline and no sleep and tell them to kill each other and watch their friends die and what the hell do you expect?

482. ScottLoar - 9/12/1999 11:08:59 PM

Clinton needs a script.

483. ScottLoar - 9/12/1999 11:12:31 PM

God, can you discriminate between atrocity incidental to war and atrocity as tactic? In East Timor atrocity has become a strategy, perhaps not by military design but surely by the hooligans styling themselves nationalists.

484. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 11:14:32 PM

Angel:
Irv, Loar, I will defer to your knowledge of the culture -- but is Wiranto's need to seem in complete control something that would actually trump the above factors?

Yes. He really can't afford to give the appearance of not being in total control. Meanwhile, you can be sure he is doing everything he can behind the scenes. I think he thought he could control the rogue forces. His acceptance of peacekeepers shows he cannot.

ScottLoar (475):
Well, we're all missing key information here, and I don't have the answers either. It seems that most of the violence has been perpetrated by the militias (the pro-integration gangs armed by the military), but there have numerous reports of army and police involvement in atrocities. These may have been East Timorese deserters from the army and police.

It wasn't until yesterday that reports of Kopassus organization and leadership came in from reliable sources, describing the Dare incident.

485. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 11:17:04 PM

ScottLoar:
Your 483 saves me from needing to reply, except to point God to my 480. I still don't see how this can be called a "war." This is a rampage, or something, but it's entirely one-sided.

486. ScottLoar - 9/12/1999 11:19:43 PM

What this entire affair warns us, as did the riots and enventual fall of Suharto, is that the reporting to come from events as they unfold is mottled with truth and error and press speculation rife but questionable. I much prefer and trust IrvingSnodgrass' comments.

487. Angel-Five - 9/12/1999 11:21:27 PM

I don't think there's any doubt about that, though I find it
hard to label the atrocities "war crimes" when there has
been no war. Is it a war if one side is unarmed and doesn't
fight back? Well, the execution of the Polish Jews was tried as a war crime, wasn't it? I had a similar vague dislike of the term when I used it, but didn't know quite what else to use.

488. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 11:31:39 PM

ScottLoar:
I'm sure you'll find a mix of truth and errors in my reporting. For example, we don't even know if there is any basis at all to the Prabowo story. It may turn out to be a complete fabrication. I just threw it out there for consideration.

Angel:
The execution of the Jews was similar in that it was against helpless people, but it took place under the aegis of a war. What's happening in East Timor is not a war at all, though the atrocities are real, and the perpetrators should be brought to justice. We need a better term than "war crimes."

489. coralreef - 9/12/1999 11:34:02 PM

What I don't understand is this. If the Ind. govt. is not in control then will the Ind. govt. allowing peacekeepers in ensure the safety of those peacekeepers? At least to the point that they can enter safely to begin with. I mean, if they are not in control then them merely allowing the peacekeepers in wouldn't seem to mean a lot. You'd have to get the approval of whoever really is in control of the forces.

490. ScottLoar - 9/12/1999 11:34:11 PM

But the extermination of the Polish Jews by the German military during war on occupied ground was properly tried as a war crime, as were the acts of persons commanding units of the Imperial Japanese Army. Those of the Khmer Rouge are being tried for acts against humanity, a new notion I think to encompass such acts against a people regardless of their condition.

I'm overly tired as this groggy post shows.

491. robertjayb - 9/12/1999 11:35:29 PM

SYDNEY, Sept 13 (AFP) - East Timor lobby groups warned the United Nations Monday to beware of Indonesian Foreign Minister Ali Alatas trying to delay the deployment of a peacekeeping force in the ravaged territory.
Geoffrey Heard, speaking for National Council of Timorese Resistance (CNRT) in Australia head Joao Carrascalao, told AFP the most worrying thing about President B.J. Habibie's decision to let in peacekeepers was the lack of a timetable.

"And Ali Alatas is a master of deceit and procrastination," Heard said.

"He will stretch out these negotiations as long as he can, and in the meantime the killing will go on."

Alatas was due to meet UN Secretary General Kofi Annan later Monday to negotiate a timeframe for a multi-national peacekeeping force.

...more of above...

492. ScottLoar - 9/12/1999 11:38:47 PM

A foreign force landing uninvited likely engaging the military or populace in combat is an act of war. Indonesia's invitation moots that probability, but only the Indonesia military and police can identify, disarm, and disengage the paramilitary groups. To suggest that any foreign forces can do so by themselves is reckless.

493. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 11:39:34 PM

Reefer:
The fact that the government or the central military command, doesn't have control is why the peacekeepers are needed. How could anyone guarantee the safety of the peacekeepers? They are going in to stop the crap that's been happening.

These are military forces we're talking about, not UN staffers. They are supposed to be able to defend themselves, and I expect they will need to. Otoh, they will be better prepared, trained and equipped than the ragtag bunch they go up against in the militias and rogue military elements. And the militias do not even have the support of the populace to assist them and hide them.

I anticipate a quick resolution once the peacekeepers arrive. But to expect them to be able to waltz right in there and set things right without any fighting is not realistic.

494. God - 9/12/1999 11:39:51 PM

Is Azure coming over? I hope so. Anyway, try as I might, I just can't get worked up over this whole Indonesian thing. I have a decent standard of living because my ancestors did some really nasty things. I don't apologize for it because I'm a mildly evolved primate and that's how we operate on this little rock of scarcity shooting through a pinprick in the cosmos.

495. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 11:43:54 PM

robert:
That's a very good point. Ali Alatas may be Indonesia's most respected international diplomat, but he is a weasel, who learned his tricks under Suharto. He is not to be trusted.

Reefer:
Now I'm confused about what you were asking. The peacekeepers have the permission of the Indonesian military to land. After that, their success will depend upon the factors ScottLoar mentions in 492.

496. ScottLoar - 9/12/1999 11:44:11 PM

"(T)hat's how we operate on this little rock of scarcity shooting through a pinprick in the cosmos".

Well, God, open the door and go out to 7-11.

497. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 11:45:40 PM

God:
Glad to hear it. For some of us, the events in East Timor are a little closer to home.

498. Angel-Five - 9/12/1999 11:46:25 PM

I think the definition we're working with is covered in the Nuremburg Tribunal as 'crimes against humanity'. Here is Section 10.

Interestingly enough, if you extend the concept of 'nation' to the East Timor nationalists and accept the notion that the paramilitaries and soldiers in ET are killing with an eye for nationalists, this page in the Nuremburg documents would allow the killings to be charged as genocide.

499. Angel-Five - 9/12/1999 11:48:30 PM

God=Azure?

500. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 11:50:05 PM

Angel:
Crimes against humanity works for me. Depending on what we learn later, genocide might fit, too.

Sorry folks, it's been a very good discussion, but I have to get to work. I hope the peacekeepers can indeed get here within 48 hours.

501. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/12/1999 11:52:02 PM

No, Angel... God=incognito.

Azure said she would boycott this site, though I never understood why. I have invited her twice.

502. Angel-Five - 9/13/1999 12:01:19 AM

It really would be amazing if we could get people there within a week, and if we will get there with the blessing of the Indonesians -- i.e. we won't have to fight our way in -- then I support the deployment after all.

503. Angel-Five - 9/13/1999 12:03:09 AM

Man, we can pull in some real live ones from time to time.

504. coralreef - 9/13/1999 1:11:47 AM

The peacekeepers have the permission of the Indonesian military to land

OK, thanks. That wasn't really clear in the news stories I was reading tonight.

505. alistairconnor - 9/13/1999 3:06:36 AM

In case anyone is interested in a view from New Zealand on the Timor crisis (cringe cringe), here is Russ Brown's weekly political commentary, which dates from last Thursday.

[begins]
... the Prime Minister emerged from her apparently delayed motorcade to stand in front of more cameras than she'd ever seen before and conduct much the most serious briefing in her political career.
And you could tell. Her speech, couched, cautious, inviting the Indonesian government to call the UN if it couldn't manage, was very probably the work of her departing Foreign Affairs minister. Don McKinnon. It would have sounded better if he'd actually delivered it.
But this is Jenny Shipley's Apec. And so she ploughed into it, taking big gulps of air between every sentence, speaking a little too quickly, and, at one point, stumbling badly on her script. I don't know about you, but it made me bloody nervous.
She seemed no more composed the next day. She plainly has the fear and it's hard to escape the conclusion that, as the people of East Timor face genocide and Indonesia looks down the barrel of a military coup,she's very lucky she's still got McKinnon to call on. Can you imagine Max Bradford handling this stuff?
Yet even McKinnon's trademark softly-softly approach has been rendered farcical by events. We could insist all we wanted that Timor would had no place on the agenda of an economic summit, but humanity dictated otherwise. For all that we sought to spare the sensibilities of President Habibie, he isn't coming now - and could well now be irrelevant anyway.
If nothing else, this week's events have shown how painfully narrow is New Zealand's international dialogue. While the New Zealand government dodged the issue, the Canadians, of all people, called and chaired a crisis meeting in Auckland.

506. alistairconnor - 9/13/1999 3:07:24 AM

[Russ Brown continued...]
And why is it that the Australians seem so much more confident in their public life? Their Prime Minister John Howard and Foreign Affairs minister Alexander Downer, who had far more call to tread carefully than we did, didn't. They were forthright, they were critical, they were frank.
Yet at every step New Zealand has baulked. A day after McKinnon said it would be premature to suspend out ties with the out-of-control Indonesian military, the Americans did just that.
It's impossible to watch a people and their places being steadily erased by thugs without feeling that something, anything should be done. But what? A couple of Australian newspapers actually canvassed the idea of going to war with Indonesia, but that, frankly, is not a starter.
The one thing that shouldn't happen is for the United Nations to abandon the fledgling democracy it helped to create. For so long as UN people want to stay there and provide shelter for the innocent, they ought to be there.
I often wonder if, in these situations, there is a level of diplomacy where diplomacy is left behind - where people get shouted at and bullied and told they will be cut off at the knees if they don't pull into line. If that ever happens, it needs to be now.
But what do Indonesians themselves think of the bloodbath taking place at the tip of their archipelago? From the look of Internet newsgroups, they seem to have bought the line that what is going on in East Timor is a civil war. That, having wilfully cut themselves off from their adoptive nation, the crazy Timorese are killing each other.
Timor is no stranger to internal warfare. Back when the Portugese were kicked out of Jakarta and came to stay in 1664, there were warring tribes in Timor. But that's not, as we know, what's happening now.

507. alistairconnor - 9/13/1999 3:08:42 AM

The Portugese left the East Timorese with a Catholic faith in an Islamic region and a nationhood bloodily overtaken by the Indonesians 24 years ago. Since then the military has run Timor the way enterprising Dutch and Portugese soldiers did back in the age of empire - as a kind of black market canton; shipping coffee out and alcohol in, even levying taxes.
[Russ Brown continued]
What we now call Indonesia has, for most of human history, been that way. It could well be that way again, assuming other islands and ethnic groups haven't taken the hint. The fourth most populous nation in the world may be breaking up. It's possible to conceive a post-modern future of economically independent island nations for the archipelago,but you can't get there from here. All there is now is blood and fear.

508. alistairconnor - 9/13/1999 3:11:28 AM

[Russ Brown on the APEC summit]

Here at Apec, of course, they don't like to use the words"nation" or "country". Delegates and media don't officially hail from either of those, in Apec-speak - they're from "economies".
And what of economics? Well, I can report that aspects of this Apec are not terribly well organised. The first Apec trade fair which has not been supported by a host government has suffered an embarrassing collapse, with 30 angry exhibitors demanding answers.
And earlier this week, trying to get any sense out of the hordes of media handlers assigned to the Apec CEO Summit was all but impossible.For some unknown reason, the whole thing is being directed from the Prime Minister's press office, where they may or may not have their phones switched on and may or may not feel like helping you.
[....]
We are, of course, in the glare of the world's media as a city this weekend. Having been watching CBNC Asia this week - thanks, IhugDigital TV - I can report that the Auckland War Memorial Museum looks quite marvellous. They've been showing a shot of it every time they mention Apec, but of course don't tell people what it actually is. I'm sure most of Asia thinks its our Parliament buildings.
So we tart up the town, remove the new rubbish bins we've only just bought and keep an eye out for Madeleine Albright down the shops. We will be inconvenienced, but we hopefully won't feel too sorry for ourselves.
[ ends]

509. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/13/1999 5:54:59 AM

alistair:
It seems that Russ is not very well-informed on the east Timor situation. I could pick out the nits, but I think you could too, so I won't bother.

I assume, however, that he knows his stuff wrt the NZ situation, and I appreciate your sharing that aspect with us.



Here is a very interesting article from today's Jakarta Post. It appeared at the top of the front page under a huge banner headline declaring "Indonesia 'accepts' UN forces. In the on-line version, the headline is "Indonesia 'invites' UN forces" (the quotation marks are used in both versions).

Reading through the article, which I saw after our earlier discussion, I see that the members of this forum anticipated almost every point and question, and arrived at the correct conclusions.

I find it interesting that the Indonesian version of Habibie's speech refers to cooperating with the Indonesian armed forces, but the English version does not.

It is also noteworthy that Indonesia asked for the right to be able to choose the participating countries, in an effort to exclude Australia, but gave in on this point quickly.

There are interesting quotes from Wiranto and Ali Alatas in the article, confirming earlier speculation in this thread.

An important point made by Habibie advisor Dewi Fortuna Anwar, is that the UN will decide when forces will arrive, and who will take part, and that Indonesia attached no conditions to its acceptance of peacekeepers, though she did say that "for us Indonesians, we would prefer to see more Asian faces."

510. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/13/1999 6:05:59 AM

Here is an excellent editorial from today's Jakarta Post. It seems that freedom of the press is still alive and well, after a few uncertain days here.

It's nice to see blunt phrases such as: "After Indonesia bungled its job to promote security in the territory...", "the strongly substantiated allegations that the military was aiding the scorch-earth campaign", and especially "The human tragedy that unfolded in East Timor this past week made compelling argument for Indonesia to leave the territory, over which it never had any legitimate claim in the first place."

The following phrases are also important indications of the Indonesian media opinion: "the responsible thing to do now is to admit failure, and to plan an immediate exit" and "As the result of the Aug. 30 vote in East Timor shows, Indonesia does not have any business staying there one day longer."

This editorial tells it like it is, and is a refreshing change over the pap of the past week. Habibie's speech appears to have been a victory for the forces of democracy, and the buzz here is that this time it was Wiranto who backed down.

I applaud The Jakarta Post and Editor Susanto Pudjomartono for this outstanding editorial, which certainly has the military cringing. There's hope yet.

511. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/13/1999 6:09:10 AM

In fact, why don't you all bookmark The Jakarta Post. I've been reluctant to refer to it before today, but this edition shows that they aren't pulling any punches, and it should be a good source from here on out.

512. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/13/1999 6:12:03 AM

This is from the "Latest News" feature on the page I just linked:

E.Timor international tribunal to be established
13 September 1999 - 16:29 [05:29 AM EDT]

JAKARTA (JP): UN Commissioner for Human Rights Mary Robinson said on Monday that the UN would investigate the alleged involvement of Indonesian Military in the very serious human rights violations in East Timor.

"The secretary-general has indicated there will be a tribunal but we can't elaborate further until we look into what the evidence is," Robinson told reporters after a meeting with National Commission on Human Rights.

She said that she had heard stories of very terrible human rights violations and a link between the Indonesian Military (TNI) in East Timor and the pro-Jakarta militia, adding that the military had "orchestrated" and been "very much involved" in terrorizing the population.

513. MrSocko - 9/13/1999 7:41:25 AM

I find it astounding that Connor, who presumably is the culprit responsible for mocking my observations elsewhere on Jakarta, can find it in himself to quote screeds of Russell ("Russ"?!?) Brown on Indonesia. Brown, who for most of his life has been a rock critic, and a bad one at that, has never visited Indonesia, never shown the slightest interest or awareness in the nation. Before this week he probably would have had great difficulty finding Timor on a map.

514. ScottLoar - 9/13/1999 7:54:36 AM

Why assume knowledge would qualify opinion? Mention "East Timor" and overweening concern seems to be the only qualification to turn to the wailing wall. Most comments on East Timor are nothing more than bricks in the latest wailing wall.

515. ScottLoar - 9/13/1999 7:57:28 AM

What sent me gallumphing back to this forum is the very dearth of informed opinion outside it, brought heavily home by East Timor. The general standard of intellection here on any number of topics rises so far above other sites that leaving here is akin to a long fall from grace.

516. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 8:02:55 AM

"Connor, who presumably is the culprit responsible for mocking my observations elsewhere"

Actually, Psocks, it was me. I was just trying to goad you into spending some actual time in this forum rather than flitting in and out. You still haven't responded to my detailed posts on the Goa/Timor "connection", for example.

517. MrSocko - 9/13/1999 8:08:33 AM

Loar:

"Most comments on East Timor are nothing more than bricks in the latest wailing wall."

Hahahahahaha! Consider that line already stolen by yours truly.

marjoribanks:

Your comments on Goa were perfectly reasonable and well informed. I have no quarrel with them.

518. MrSocko - 9/13/1999 8:12:11 AM

Loar:

From your comments elsewhere, I assume we were yet again in the same country at the same time -- namely Singapore (last week?). But your five Cs overlooked the first and most crucial of the current Singaporean fetishes. I refer, of course, to cellphones. Honestly, I've never seen so many gibbering idiots as I did last Monday along the quayside (I think that's what it's called -- but you know the place, I'm sure); hundreds of 'em, one and all yammering away to friends elsewhere, which I take to mean Orchard Road. Lord, I detest cellphones.

519. DanDillon - 9/13/1999 8:13:06 AM

Nice to see you around, ScottLoar. And it is true that in times of Crisis Elsewhere, virtually everyone dons the pundit's cap. This is exactly why I mostly lurk here.

520. RickNelson - 9/13/1999 8:13:25 AM

Gurubesar,
Regarding I've not found anything comprehensive wrt Mr.Hiebert's offending editorial. I've no time at present to search the net, yet I will. Here is confirmation that he indeed was tried for contempt. "Hiebert was convicted for contempt of court over his article which discussed the merits of a RM6mil suit by Chandra against the International School of Kuala Lumpur. " This is from the not so reliable Star on Line. That paper is cowed into not revealing much of anything. Understandable because of fear that fate will have editors receive the same treatment as Mr.Hiebert.

I have never read an article critical of the Malaysian government during my three years of perusing the on line version.

521. RickNelson - 9/13/1999 8:14:10 AM

Regarding Msg 415.

522. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 8:17:21 AM

No quarrel? No quarrel? What has happened to you in these months Psocks? A sad disintegration of some type, obviously.

523. ScottLoar - 9/13/1999 8:17:24 AM

My Dear Socko, had I known you were within a 100 kilometers of me I'd a' dropped all pretention and come a' runnin'. Seriously, why can't we get together? I'll be in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Bangkok mid to late October.

DanDillon, you needn't feign shyness at posting for your comments and expression are first-rate. And take comfort knowing I'd easily steal a good line or two from you.

524. DanDillon - 9/13/1999 8:19:21 AM

'Tis right and good to be made the sycophant's target!

525. ScottLoar - 9/13/1999 8:19:34 AM

The cellphone seems to have attached itself to the Asian mind with all the vigor of white blood cells attacking a virus.

526. RickNelson - 9/13/1999 8:20:35 AM

Making sure the msg tag attempt is put away.

527. DanDillon - 9/13/1999 8:24:41 AM

I'm fairly certain urban Italia was one of the earliest and hardest stricken locales. I recall seeing slovenly adults and well-heeled children walking and talking, arm upwardly akimbo, nearly everywhere in Florence, especially. Perhaps most of Europe was cellularly overcome well before the USA.

528. MrSocko - 9/13/1999 8:24:59 AM

My dear Loar: There's a 50/50 chance I will be in Bangkok later next month.

marjoribanks:

Why should I quarrel with you about Goa, about which I know zip. This is precisely the sentiment Connor ought to bear in mind when it comes to Indonesia and the lunkhead "Russ" Brown.

529. MrSocko - 9/13/1999 8:30:03 AM

Re cellphones:

I've no real objection to these things providing they are kept in their place and used sparingly -- when a relative dies, for example, or if an important business deal needs to be suddenly clinched. But the sight of the savage hordes strutting down the road pressing these cricketing dildos to their ears in the interests of social intercourse fills me with utter contempt. It's so ... Third World.

530. RickNelson - 9/13/1999 8:31:41 AM

Question:

Is it better to have the Russ Brown's of this world or articles which parrot the official take on things? Accuracy is important so I suppose it will have to be a judgement criterion.

531. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 8:34:51 AM

Well choose another topic for possible friction then, Psocks. I miss our spats from the days when you wouldn't have let a mere small factor like ignorance get in the way of a good dust-up.

----------------

Another innovation that has become part of the very soul of East Asians is the infernal karaoke phenomenon. It's out of hand. The Chinese codger who came to the US earlier this year (forget his name) regaled a diplomatic assembly with a Beatles song. Wiranto was reported last week to have expressed his emotions re E. Timor by belting out a moving version of 'Feelings' to assembled foreign dignitaries and journalists. The Philipinos seem to choose politicians on the basis of their ability to cover the John Denver catalog. It's quite over the top, but tell an Asian you find it surreal and odd, and you'll find it is he who thinks you're strange.

532. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 8:35:50 AM

Filipinos.

533. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 8:40:22 AM

Psocks, got any new articles on line?

534. stostosto - 9/13/1999 9:09:52 AM

marj!

As an authority on Goan politics, I have a major quarrel indeed, with your Goan posts. How can you post anything on Goa, let alone extensive political commentary, without even mentioning Kennedy Churchill???

Alemao, is all I can say.

535. stostosto - 9/13/1999 9:13:22 AM

marj!

As an authority on Goan politics, I have a major quarrel indeed, with your Goan posts. How can you post anything on Goa, let alone extensive political commentary, without even mentioning Kennedy Churchill???

Alemao, is all I can say.

536. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 9:18:11 AM

Stostosto, the constant antics of smuggler/minister Alemao almost justify the creation of a separate thread.

Consider this story:

"Alemao condemns attack on priests"

"PANJIM, SEPT 8 — Industries Minister, Churchill Alemao, has expressed shock and condemned the brutal assault on three Catholic priests and a sacristao at Navelim.

Mr Alemao accused the BJP of attempting to inject communal virus in the hitherto peaceful State by misguiding the people.

The press note further said that Mr Alemao questioned the concern of BJP for the well being of the Catholics and that too Catholic priests, when Dara Singh a known Bajrang Dal activist is still at large and continues assaults and brutalities against Catholic priests in Orissa."

Now, as everyone in Goa knows, the priests and sacristan were attacked by a well-known deranged man from the village, a man who happens to be Catholic and who has absolutely nothing to do with politics, political capital, the BJP or anything very much beyond his dementia. He was placed back into a mental hospital after the attack.

Alemao's statement, then, is known by every Goan to be patently ridiculous. But there you have the big man in all his glory.

537. MrSocko - 9/13/1999 9:25:50 AM

marjoribanks:

Well, since you ask, here's a recent piece that should interest anybody who follows the Net,international links and SLATE.

538. stostosto - 9/13/1999 9:31:36 AM

marj!

As an authority on Goan politics, I have a major quarrel indeed, with your Goan posts. How can you post anything on Goa, let alone extensive political commentary, without even mentioning Kennedy Churchill???

Alemao, is all I can say.

539. MrSocko - 9/13/1999 9:32:41 AM

marjoribanks:

According to a recent issue of Asiaweek, which listed the personal interests of many of the region's leaders, our friend "President" Wiranto is a huge Richard Clayderman fan. Doesn't that say everything about the man?

I guess we should be grateful that karaoke doesn't extend to particpants tinkling away on the ivory keys, huh?

540. MrSocko - 9/13/1999 9:33:56 AM

RickNelson:

I applaud anything that refuses to take the unblinking APEC line. "Russ" Brown is pretty low on the pile, that's all.

541. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 9:34:05 AM

Very interesting, Psocks. I'd never heard of that site. By the way, you may wish to know that Resonance (now A5) has become a big fan of the Guardian, and now by extension - you.

542. MrSocko - 9/13/1999 9:36:55 AM

resonance and The Guardian: a paradox, surely?

543. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 9:39:33 AM

No, it's made for him. In my opinion anyway, which is why I suggested he check it out.

Do you write for them regularly?

544. stostosto - 9/13/1999 9:43:34 AM

marj!

As an authority on Goan politics, I have a major quarrel indeed, with your Goan posts. How can you post anything on Goa, let alone extensive political commentary, without even mentioning Kennedy Churchill???

Alemao, is all I can say.

545. pellenilsson - 9/13/1999 9:43:38 AM

Karaoke is everywhere. My wife and I stayed last spring a couple of nights in Trollhättan (the cap of the trolls) in west Sweden. It's a small town, maybe 50-60,000 pop. Important in a way because the SAAB cars are made there, maybe you know about them.

Anyhow, there were no less than three such place and we happened to go to one of them where the local "talent" performed. It was disgusting and sad at the same time. What makes people want to make complete asses of themselves in public?

546. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 9:45:19 AM

Sto, see 536

Sto, see 536

Sto, see 536

547. stostosto - 9/13/1999 9:45:32 AM

Hey! What happened? I refreshed and then it re-posted my former message?! Probably some bug in my setup after having had re-configured my PC. (Damn IT support people).

548. pellenilsson - 9/13/1999 9:46:35 AM

What the hell are you up to sto? You are not taken to the end of the thread after you have posted. That's why you don't see your posts.

549. MrSocko - 9/13/1999 9:47:46 AM

MB:

"Do you write for them regularly?"

Yes, and have done so (with pleasure) for a number of years. As you know, I dislike most of the other UK papers.

550. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 9:48:12 AM

Pelle, please post at least a little more in your Diary thread. I'm becoming quite addicted to it.

551. pellenilsson - 9/13/1999 9:49:07 AM

marj

What about some incentives?

552. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 9:50:12 AM

Psocks,

I just spent a couple of pleasant weeks in London and read all the papers every day. The best, all in all, is the Independent which is really hitting its stride again. The foreign coverage was especially good (imo the best available in an English-language paper) but it was simply outstanding all around. I genuinely miss it over here.

553. MrSocko - 9/13/1999 9:50:40 AM

Isn't Erasmus scheduled to return about now? Or will he be powdering his nose for another few weeks?

554. stostosto - 9/13/1999 9:51:11 AM

marj

Sorry

Sorry

Sorry

It was fully unintended.

Thank you for the Alemao Churchill update. But where do you (and, according to you, the rest of Goans) have your information from that the perpetrator is a stampeding madman?

555. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 9:51:20 AM

What would you like Pelle?

556. pellenilsson - 9/13/1999 9:54:51 AM

Cash. I had $500 stolen from me in the hotel.

557. MrSocko - 9/13/1999 9:55:36 AM

marjoribanks:

Well, this is a subject we've talked about a lot. My only criticism of the Indie is that it's broke. It pays its contributors shit money, and consequently shortchanges its readers. The Times and The Torygraph are smug, objectionable rags, albeit ones with high writing standards. The tabloids are journalistic sluts, the worst English-language papers in the world.

The Guardian is an interesting mix. It's left-wing, sure, but intelligently and critically so. Also, for those interested in this kind of thing, the photographic standards are first-rate.

558. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 9:58:27 AM

Jesus. I'm sorry. It's a horrible feeling, I hope you have travel insurance. As for cash incentives for posts to the mote, I don't want to set an ugly precedent. But if I change my mind you'll be high on my list.

--------------

Sto, the man and his wife have made open statements to the police and the Press. I'm touched by your eagerness to defend Alemao, but after reading this sorry tale you'll realize that he's being an idiot. Again. And he doesn't care. And neither, really, do the Goans.

559. MrSocko - 9/13/1999 9:59:12 AM

Alas, 'tis late at night. I must retire, perchance to dream. I'm hoping to participate more in this forum than I managed in the last six months of The Fray. The reasons for that hiatus were mainly work overload and the site's wretched technology standards -- but I'm also in the process of rearranging my life for a new child.

560. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 10:01:08 AM

Well, that's an insider view, Psocko. Honestly, to the reader, the Indie doesn't come off as broke. It had an excellent correspondent in Timor (Richard Lloyd Parry), the great Robert Fisk from Turkey covering the earthquake, and a host of other people doing their bits from all over the world.

BTW, I think their design department and photo coverage is superior to that of the Guardian, but that is merely my opinion.

561. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 10:01:50 AM

Hey congratulations, Psocks. And guess what, I am too!

562. pellenilsson - 9/13/1999 10:04:09 AM

You don't collect any insurance if you stupidly leave a pair of trousers in the room with $500 in the pocket and the room has a safe.

I was joking of course about the incentive. No, there is one. The Indian take-over of Goa. It still interests me.

But I cannot post more today.

563. ScottLoar - 9/13/1999 10:07:47 AM

I can think of only one reason why an otherwise intelligent, adult male would have US$500 in his trousers carelessly draped over a chair in his hotel room.

You saucy boy, you!

564. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 10:10:52 AM

hahahaha. I actually thought the same thing. But then we know Pelle and have seen his photograph, and I doubt he's the kind of person who'd get himself into such "situations." Unlike me and you (perhaps) Loar.

565. ScottLoar - 9/13/1999 10:13:35 AM

I don't believe I've ever seen a fellow creature I'd spend US$500 to fornicate with. But two now, that's another matter.

566. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 10:20:24 AM

Well the cash was stolen. $500 is more than a little excessive, I would have thought, even for two Mozambicans.

On a slightly related topic, I saw in London the latest HIV/AIDS statistics in Africa. They are unbelievable, astonishing, in some segments of the populace in some countries (students especially) they're unbelievable (50% and up). I'll try and dig them out from somewhere. In the meanwhile, the US government and a few pharmaceutical companies are lobbying hard to keep cheap clones of AZT and other drugs off the market, even though these exist and are freely available from countries like India.

567. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 11:07:17 AM

According to the WHO, one in ten adults in sub-Saharan Africa carries the HIV virus. In countries like Zambia and Botswana, the rate goes up to a staggering one in four. In Zimbabwe, 60% of the college students are estimated to carry it. 5000 people die of AIDS everyday in SS Africa, and the rate of infection is rising dramtically in several countries including S. Africa.

Unbelievable stuff.

568. pellenilsson - 9/13/1999 11:21:41 AM

And you have suspicions as to the destination of those dollars?

569. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/13/1999 11:34:50 AM

Marj:
Is anything being done about AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa? Can anything be done? Those statistics are very, very depressing.

570. stostosto - 9/13/1999 11:46:36 AM

marj

This is simply too, too hopping mad. It's too much for a parochial unbetravelled homebred Scandinavian such as myself. I can't believe such things are happening in the same world in which we huddling Danespeople are busy trimming our neat hedges, mowing our lawns and catching our buses in the morning. Forgive me.

I am so full of disbelief, I have no words for it that this Alemao character is acting like this and is the industry minister and is not thrown out from government and just about anywhere else for being so blatantly stupid.

Especially if this statement has any validity - and what is your opinion on that:

"As soon as I heard about the attack," says the Chief Minister who is a parishioner, "I thought: Orissa! If the assailant had been of another community, Goa would have burned."

----
I kind of enjoyed this one, by the way:

"My neighbour told my husband that evil is sitting on everybody's head".

But it seems he should have chosen his words more carefully in this instance...

571. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 11:47:57 AM

Yes, Irv, every year a group of AIDS experts from around the world gets together and announces the latest horrific statistical updates. This year the bash took place in Zambia, where the likelihood that a 15-year old girl will die of AIDS is over 60%. Oh yes, and the UN has started an organization called UNAIDS.

In the meanwhile, there are various treatments,involving drugs like AZT and Protease inhibitors (I know very little of the technical aspects of these) which are managing to have a remarkable effect on extending the lifetimes of HIV-positive people in the Western countries, in some cases (I believe) they seem to be fending off "full-blown" AIDS almost indefinitely. However, these treatments cost around 20 grand a year here and in Europe, and the companies that produce these (notably Glaxo Wellcome I think) are fighting as hard as possible to make sure that cheaper clones (such as are available in India which refuses to uphold medical patents) are not available on a widescale basis in this poor part of the world where literally no-one can afford the current prices.

A lot of this is from memory of an article I read almost a month ago, but I recall reading that S. Africa has defied the lobbyists (and pissed off the US government) by announcing that it too will not respect the patent laws when it comes to these medicines and is ready to start imports of cheap clones. That country has one of the biggest explosions of AIDS cases in sub-Saharan Africa, which is saying something.

572. stostosto - 9/13/1999 11:48:29 AM

#570 was to #558 and the link therein.

573. pellenilsson - 9/13/1999 11:51:08 AM

I am very pessimistic about AIDS in Africa. My wife did a stint at a misisonary station (as a nurse) in southern Zimbabve some years ago. The situation was bad then and it has certainly not improved. One of the problems is of course that the disease is transmitted between heterosexuals in Africa, which was very rare in the West,wher the risk group was smaller and easier to reach out to.

If marj has sources at hand he can probably find out the daily cost of threatment. And if we multiply by the estimated number of infected people we will probably come up with astronomical sums.

And if you take the 25% in Zambia and consider that (a) it is still predominantly an urban disease, and (b) a large part of the population live in rural areas, the cities there are not very healthy places to live.

But I don't think AIDS is the biggest killer (yet). TB and malaria lead but I don't know in what order.

574. pellenilsson - 9/13/1999 11:52:02 AM

threatment=treatment. Freudian.

575. stostosto - 9/13/1999 11:52:45 AM

This AIDS thing is truly depressing. But I'll refrain from commenting lest I simply extend the wailing wall.

576. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 12:01:17 PM

Stostosto,

I will teach you a word which encapsulates all of Goa and Goans and Goan attitudes in a few syllables. It is 'susegaad' from the Portuguese 'sossegado'. It means laid-back, lackadisical, relaxed, all in the Goan context. Goans are famous, rightly so, for being the most astonishingly detatched people in India, in my opinion possibly the world. Alemao says what he says and nobody cares, we elect an astonishing array of outright bozos, idiots and theives, and nobody really cares. Alemao says ridiculous and stupid things every day, but people simply don't take anything he has to say seriously. Remember that earlier article I linked to an interview with him some months ago - he said the most blindingly stupid things about tourists, prostitution, casinos etc. And he was the Toursim Minister.

I can't really explain it to you that well, you may have to visit the place to understand a bit of this.

577. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 12:01:41 PM

""As soon as I heard about the attack," says the Chief Minister who is a parishioner, "I thought: Orissa! If the assailant had been of another community, Goa would have burned."

This is gross overreaction (politically motivated) by the CM (who by the way is another big idiot and is overtly corrupt, he went from owning one of Goa's small tavernas to being the fourth-largest income tax payer in the state in 5 years). Sure, if it actually were a "communally inspired" attack there would have been some repercussions, but Goans are vastly tolerant and largely live in total harmony, and the susegaad factor cannot be underestimated. If a note came to a Goan village calling immediately for a rally to go beat up the Hindus (or Catholics as the case may be) the villagers would first go to the fishmarket to see what they could buy (the buying of the day's fish being the single most important event in a Goan day), then gather at the taverna to discuss the matter. Then urgently agree that something should be done, immediately, and then go home to eat the fish and have a four-hour nap. They would agree, of course, that they should meet tomorrow at the same time in the same place to come up with a plan of action. And this would go on forever.

You may think I'm exaggerating, but I'm not.

578. pellenilsson - 9/13/1999 12:02:16 PM

I did some quick arethmetic based on CIA's figures for Zambia and the cost marj quoted.

The GDP is 10 billion US (purchasing parity)

The cost for treatment would be 50 billion US.

i can be wrong by an order of magnitude because I made it quickly but I don't think so. And even if I were it would still be staggering.

579. stostosto - 9/13/1999 12:02:24 PM

On a somewhat different note, I must say you people are a bunch of blasé, sturdy windbags.

Karaoke is fun, you nitwits!

But oh, the elevated pleasure of frowning at the poor taste of the low brow masses.

(Sip. Hmmm... The wine is a touch... how should one put it.... demi-comprimé, don't you find..? Reminds me of something I read in the Guaaaardian the other day...)

580. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 12:11:52 PM

Well, there are 22 million HIV+ people in sub-Saharan Africa according to the WHO.

581. pellenilsson - 9/13/1999 12:16:02 PM

So multiply with 20,000 and you get 440 billion US$.

582. robertjayb - 9/13/1999 12:17:07 PM

stostosto,

Nice shot!

583. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 12:17:39 PM

Ignore that stat. This is from UNAIDS:

- 7 out of 10 people newly infected with HIV in 1998 live in sub-Saharan Africa; among children under 15, the proportion is 9 out of 10. Of all AIDS deaths since the epidemic started, 83% have been in the region. At least 95% of all AIDS orphans have been African.* Yet only one-tenth of the world's population lives in Africa south of the Sahara.

The sheer number of Africans affected by the epidemic is overwhelming. Since the start of the epidemic, an estimated 34 million people living in sub-Saharan Africa have been infected with HIV. Some 11.5 million of those people have already died, a quarter of them children. In the course of 1998, AIDS will have been responsible for an estimated two million funerals in Africa.

By the end of 1998, there will be an estimated 21.5 million men and women living with HIV in Africa, plus another 1 million children. Some 4 million of these people will have contracted the infection in 1998 alone.

•In Botswana, Namibia, Swaziland and Zimbabwe, current estimates show that over one person in five between the ages of 15 and 49 is living with HIV or AIDS.

•Zimbabwe is especially hard-hit. There are 25 surveillance sites in the country where blood taken from pregnant women is tested anonymously as a way of tracking HIV infection. The most recent data, from 1997, show that HIV prevalence remained below 10% in just two of these sites. In the remaining 23 sites, between a fifth and half of all pregnant women were found to be infected with HIV. At least a third are likely to pass the infection on to their baby.

•South Africa trailed behind some of its neighbours in HIV infection levels at the start of the 1990s. Unfortunately, it is catching up fast. This year, just over 50% of all new infections in southern Africa occurred in this one country.

584. stostosto - 9/13/1999 12:19:43 PM

Marj. Thank you for the educative remarks on Goa. Fascinating. (I am sure there are people here who are uninformed about those matters).

In a way this sossegado thing reminds me of Denmark. At least as you exemplify it by the political passivity. The saying is we were on the verge of a revolution once. But then it started raining and people thought: Nah... some other time. It's a cuddling, superficial self-image that many Danes like to nurture.

(I think the truth is rather that our rulers were humbled by a long series of humiliating military defeats and territorial losses and for this reason, among others, were much more susceptible to popular pressure for democracy. Thus we can boast a 150 year old democracy which was installed and subsequently extended without one single shot ever being fired).

585. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 12:21:39 PM

By contrast, Pelle, you can buy a years course of non brand-name AZT from Cipla Labs in India for around $300. The article I read mentioned that Cipla was actually willing to sell to S. Africa on a non-profit basis.

586. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 12:24:05 PM

Believe me sto, with the kind of background you see that I have, I find places like Denmark (though I've only been to Copenhagen for a day or two years ago) unbelievably exotic, like a strange world quite removed from where the rest of us live.

587. Seamus - 9/13/1999 12:26:09 PM

Hello Irving,

It is smallish, I know, but we've had several days of "unrest" outside Garuda offices here. The government is over the top in ties to the wrong places in Indonesia.

588. stostosto - 9/13/1999 12:26:11 PM

Marj. Thank you for the educative remarks on Goa. Fascinating. (I am sure there are people here who are uninformed about those matters).

In a way this sossegado thing reminds me of Denmark. At least as you exemplify it by the political passivity. The saying is we were on the verge of a revolution once. But then it started raining and people thought: Nah... some other time. It's a cuddling, superficial self-image that many Danes like to nurture.

(I think the truth is rather that our rulers were humbled by a long series of humiliating military defeats and territorial losses and for this reason, among others, were much more susceptible to popular pressure for democracy. Thus we can boast a 150 year old democracy which was installed and subsequently extended without one single shot ever being fired).

589. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 12:26:47 PM

STO, you're doing it again.

590. ScottLoar - 9/13/1999 12:27:30 PM

If the simple prescription to stop the AIDS epidemic in Africa is massive amounts of specifics then, of course, the UN or other international aid agencies should contract immediately for the cheapest, most effective and massive sources of supply, with a worldwide appeal to fund this humanitarian remedy. And why is this not being done? Is it really so simple?

591. stostosto - 9/13/1999 12:28:14 PM

Shit. That thing again?!!!

I am going to watch myself now.

592. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/13/1999 12:35:21 PM

Seamus:
There have been numerous incidents in Oz, from dockworkers refusing to unload Indonesian ships, to burning of Indonesian flags, to the Garuda protests.

You can imagine how well all that plays here. There is a palpable anti-Australian feeling in the air right now, even among people who are furious with the Indonesian military for its handling of East Timor.

The other day there was a protest here which included anti-military placards and slogans and the burning of an Australian flag. Sort of touching all bases.

593. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 12:36:51 PM

Loar,

Read this pertinent article.

It doesn't say so, but I think you can see the fact that only 1% of sufferers have access to even the basic anti-AIDS drugs is due directly to the fact that even international donors cannot buy generic drugs from a patent-flouting country like India.

By the way, another company in India, Reddy Labs, cloned Viagra and its value quadrupled on the Indian stock market. You get all kinds of shady Arabs, Nigerians and Russians coming to the country to buy and illegally export suitcases full of the stuff.

594. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/13/1999 12:39:22 PM

Marj:
Treatment of sufferers is one thing, and an important one, but what efforts are being undertaken to prevent further spread of the disease in sub-Saharan Africa? It seems to still be growing in epidemic proportions.

595. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 12:46:41 PM

There's some stuff on it on the site I linked to above Irv. But it is a damned difficult thing. The spread of the epeidemic seems to be in part due to the culture itself. Even as people die all around African women are unwilling or unable to demand their partner to wear a condom. Also, the following sounds horribly chauvinistic to say but I know it's true- Africans tend to indulge in rougher sex, unprotected, with more chance of exchanging blood even in heterosexual contact.

On the other hand, funds are still scarce. According to UNAIDS a total of $150 million is donated to Africa to combat AIDS, a further $15 million or so coming from the countries themselves. What is $165 million is a region of the world so vast as Africa. NYC alone probably spends five times, if not ten times, as much.

596. Seamus - 9/13/1999 12:48:12 PM

Irving,

(if I cannot sleep, why shouldn't I discuss politics...er, don't answer that!)

Actually, the general ill-will here seems to be directed at Canberra--Garuda and the docks seem a proxy to me. Besides, students haven't the money to drive for 3 hours out.

597. Bubbaette - 9/13/1999 12:49:25 PM

Hi Seamus!

Come visit in the Cafe.

598. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 12:53:59 PM

Okay, these two articles comprehensively cover the very good point/question raised by Loar.

This one is on GATT and pharmaceuticals.

599. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 12:56:09 PM

And this one an excellent report on the difference in prices in India and the rest of the world.

600. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 2:05:58 PM

Of course, cheap drugs alone are hardly the complete solution. Even though the inequity is galling.

India has all the cheap drugs discussed above, but still has the world's largest HIV+ population placed variously at anything from 1.5 million to 5 million.

However, despite these statistics the rate of infection is coming down drastically except in the 'red light' areas of the country and some sections of the populace, like truckdrivers. And AIDS education is widespread even for these people most at risk. Traditional Indian mores are stifling, even oppressive, but again despite what that site says, the likelihood of a huge percentage contracting the virus is highly unlikely.

601. Hashke - 9/13/1999 4:44:10 PM

marj:

More on the village, the uncles, and the foco desnudo.

602. Angel-Five - 9/13/1999 4:49:51 PM

And the basketball.

603. Angel-Five - 9/13/1999 5:27:37 PM

Falintil's position seems precarious.

Planned Exodus?

604. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 5:57:50 PM

Sorry, gents, I'm spending too much time in that world already, can't distract myself. However, I'll be happy to write on another topic Goa-related if you like, especially politics. Did you see the stuff from earlier today?

Res,

Are you aware that Psocks writes regularly for the Guardian?

605. Angel-Five - 9/13/1999 6:23:31 PM

What's he write there? Obituaries?

606. Angel-Five - 9/13/1999 6:39:47 PM

Does he announce marriages and the appearance of Monaco's nobility?

607. Angel-Five - 9/13/1999 6:40:20 PM

Does he taste test jugs of CocaCola?

608. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 6:48:01 PM

Okay, in a quid pro quo kind of thing, I'm going to heed Pelle's request for a short precis on the takeover of Goa in 1961.

Rebellion against the Portuguese from within and pressure on them from the outside was a constant pressure on the Portuguese almost from 1510 when the first little part of Goa was taken over. The two hundred years of Inquisition starting in roughly 1550 managed to wipe out most opposition (since the reign was one of terror) but the moment the Jesuits were booted out (and shut down in Rome) in roughly 1750, the opposition started up again. And this opposition turned out to have the most impact on Goa, even setting the very character of the 1961 takeover.

Because, the opposition came from Catholic converts, stung by the continued racism and lack of opportunity. The first Goan bishop, for instance, ordained in Rome, was so shabbily treated by the uneducated (in comparison) local Catholic hieracrch that he decamped next door to the kingdom of a Muslim monarch from where he launched periodic military attacks on Goa. He was convinced (and many Goan devout as they were were oon persuaded) that Christianity would only spread in India if the Portuguese were kicked ou. Ironical isn't it. Then, a little later, the more enlightened Portuguese rulers in Lisbon had the audacity to appoint a Goan as Prefect of the colony. Again, disgusted by his treatment at the hands of the local Portuguese, he too decamped - to British India. And he too launched periodic attacks on Goa which failed. And there are many such examples. There was even a failed French-type revolution against the Portuguese, of the 30 high-born conspirators 17 were priests.

609. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 6:48:33 PM

This is all to give you the flavor of the anti-colonial movement. The people who could/should have been collaborators with the colonial regime were in fact the most ardent opponents of their rule. They were educated and exposed to Western ideas and could not stand that the Portuguese acted in such a discriminatory way towards them no matter what. Deceptively simple, but essential to the future years.

Two further factors emerged in the nineteenth and twentieth century. Due to the complete lack of economic opportunity for the semi-educated (as most Catholic Goans were) they migrated in large numbers, to British India, to British E. Africa and on to the ships. Goans became almost the standard clerks, stewards, cooks, tailors and band-members of that swathe of the British Empire. Where there were Brits you'd find them in some number. The same thing happened in the Portuguese colonies, but the result was different. The people who went to the British parts of the Empire, especially British India became influenced by the Indian nationalist movement which was starting to develop.

The other primary factor was the return of these people to their homeland to retire. Goa is quite a blessed and beautiful part of the world, and all Goans have common to them deep feelings of 'saudade' or nostalgia. It sounds silly but its true. And when these fellows came back to retire in Goa they were both well-off and well-educated, and rankled even more under the Portuguese ignorants who ran that part of the Empire. This was crucial. There was wide disaffection, especially among Catholics. The Hindus, of course, who were almost always in the majority in Goa, somehow managed to keep a very low profile in the nationalist phase, even while they financed a lot of it (and continued to dominate the economy).

610. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 6:49:02 PM

Anyway, the real clincher was 1947, when India became free and a democracy. You have to talk to Indians who were young at that time to know what idealism held sway in the country. It would later be tarnished of course, but for the first couple of decades, it was a movement that really gripped people. not least of all the Goans, who not only didn't have democracy, but as part of Portugal was actually being ruled by a fairly ruthless and mean dictator. Whose first or second move in office was to declare that the Goan Portuguese passport, previously as good as the one from Lisbon, was now downgraded to mere 'colonial' status. Goans still haven't recovered from that one. (Incidentally, that rule was rescinded and to the credit of the Portuguese anyone descended from those born in Goa during their rule is entitled to the full EC-valid passport now).

Anyway, the "freedom struggle" started in earnest, first violently as Goans from India now started minor terrorist attacks. being Goans, these were largely harmless as the terrorists still took four-hour naps in the afternoon. And Nehru took the decision that he would not force Portugal to quit decently as the French did in Pondi. And a kind of waiting game started.

I'm getting a little tired now so I'll give you the quick gist and answer any questions you may have instead.

611. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 6:49:14 PM

Finally, the rea end game started with a few Goans and a gent named Ram Manohar Lohia who made an incendiary call for 'civil liberties' in Goa in the late fifties. Of course, since the Portuguese didn't have them themselves they weren't exactly going to indulge the Goans. So these fellows (including my uncles) started a non-violent 'satyagrahi' campaign. Quite simply, they'd walk unarmed across the border to a Goan village, make some speeches and then raise the Indian flag. Nothing big would have happened until the Portuguese troops (mostly Angolan and Mozambican at this point BTW) started to get skittish, and then an order came to be harsher and they started to whip, beat and in one or two cases kill the satyagrahis.

That was it. Nehru's hand was forced and in a few hours the Indian troops had taken over the small territory almost without opposition. In a final petty gesture the Governor general was ordered by Lisbon to destroy the infrastructure and mine parts of the area. Nobly, he refused and returned to court-martial and disgrace. Later he came back as a hero to the Goans.

I've written at length about what followed, the UN wranglings which only ended when Salazar died, the referendums and the current status of Goa as a full state with one of the official national languages. Sorry if I rambled above, i'll be happy to fill in any blanks, and I'm sure they're many.

Now, Pelle, how about a Diary entry as lengthy as the above?

612. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 6:50:36 PM

Res, he linked a story he wrote very recently earlier today (search back in the thread). It was extremely competent, Psocks is an extremely competent (and mutedly stylish) journalist.

613. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 6:52:44 PM

Obviously, I didn't proof-read the above and wrote it in one fell swoop. Please ignore the typos and sloppiness.

614. ProfEmeritus - 9/13/1999 7:00:41 PM

Pak marj

Thanks for "Goan with the Wind." Very interesting.

615. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 7:05:53 PM

Yes, but now I feel quite tired, Pak Emeritus. Perhaps this beer will help. For International content let me mention that it's a Dos Equis.

616. alistairconnor - 9/13/1999 7:13:43 PM

Sockster,
OK, so the Brown quotes were overly long, with little of substance.
The whole point of quoting a local commentator over this business is to illustrate the extreme international isolation and poverty of debate in New Zealand. In any case, I don't read the local papers, and frankly I wouldn't want to with respect to something like the Timor crisis: at best, a garbled version of the international agencies' feeds.

617. alistairconnor - 9/13/1999 7:21:51 PM

(Ho ho. Expectant fathers patting each other on the back. How touching).

The APEC conference itself, which would barely have rated a blip on the international radar, has passed completely un-noticed. I suspect that this is a blessing for our lame-duck NZ government, because any extra publicity and razzmatazz surrounding the concepts of "free trade", particularly as applied to NZ's relations with its Asia-Pacific partners, cannot help but underline the criminal absurdity of our country's unilateral dismantling of its trade barriers, and its futile bleating about its partners' unwillingness to do likewise.

618. ranheim - 9/13/1999 7:27:32 PM

For all of you posting on AIDS : I have heard whispers for at least 10 - 15 years that there are, in reality, two HIV viruses. I know, this virus can change its stripes easily; that is why treatment is so difficult! But, people have been saying for years that there is some basic difference between the African HIV virus and the one in the remainder of the world.

Men like Anthony Fauci of NIH have their whole career and reputation tied up with the HIV virus. One or more of you have commented that Wiranto cannot afford not to appear to be in total control of their situation; the same is true of Fauci. He cannot afford to be proven wrong. And he is one of the prime believers in the fact that the HIV virus is the same all over the world. It is money and bureaucracy gone insane. So, there is no (or very little) money in the USA for viewpoints that are radically different from Fauci'. He will see to it that "they" go un-funded next year.

In any case, in all of your reading about HIV in Africa have you gotten even a hint that there may be more than one major HIV virus type?

619. ranheim - 9/13/1999 7:29:21 PM

in regard Wiranto (sp?) read his for their

620. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 7:31:37 PM

Ranheim. Yes, but HIV1 and HIV2 or some such. But the difference isn't very clear as of now. Also, as the person who posted the most information here on the topic let me assure you that I haven't done very much reading at all, other than a few brief Internet searches and what has appeared in the press.

But you're a doctor right? What do you think of the Gatt-inspired strict medical patent laws that the world is compelled to live under? And do you have any comments about the articles I linked above?

621. alistairconnor - 9/13/1999 7:43:43 PM

The whole GATT thing is designed to lock in the industrial and trading advantages of the developed world. Pharmaceutical, chemical and, increasingly, gene technology patents are just one aspect of this.

622. alistairconnor - 9/13/1999 7:46:12 PM

I love this bit from the Jakarta Post front page:
Dear Guests,
We are sorry to inform you that the poll on whether Indonesia should invite an international force into East Timor is no longer available. It crashed on Friday afternoon and our IT people are still trying to find out the cause. The latest result is 3,720 votes registered, with 94% of them in favor of an international force being deployed into East Timor. We will post another poll in its place.
We regret the inconvenience.
— Editor

Is that a diplomatic crash? Army jamming? Death threats to the webmaster? How I feel for him.

623. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 7:47:47 PM

I subscribe to that view AC, and it's brought home particularly in the injustice (IMO) in the medical technology part of it. Of course, don't get me started on the biodiversity angles. Basmati rice, the ancient and traditional product of the subcontinet, has been "patented" by a frigging Texas company. It's absurd, but that the truth.

But we'll leave the biodiversity stuff for another day. I'm interested in hearing some discussion on GATT.

624. ranheim - 9/13/1999 7:59:00 PM

Unfortunately, pharmaceutical corps. are in the business of the bottom line. And much/most of the bottom line comes from sales in the USA.

The phramaceuticals always claim that they have to have profits to support their R & D. And it is true that they spend a horrendous amount on R&D. NOW DON'T ANY OF YOU ROCK ANY BOATS. My son has a very good job in the vaccine dept. at Merck and he is only 3 years into his climb up the scientific/corp. ladder.

I have mentioned before that some friends have told me that I am too the right of Ghengis Khan in my political beliefs. I totally dis-like the USA govt. So, I would not look kindly at the govt passing legislation restricting profits of the pharmaceutical corps. - or any other.

There is also an argument that I have heard mentioned by some - very few - of my colleagues : this is a self inflicted disease! Why give them a break? I am not in that camp; but, only because the genie is out of the bottle and "something" has to be done and soon. Hopefully.

In regard virus disease in general : e.g. Infectious Mononucleosis (Kissing Disease). We know, that from time to time for the remainder of their life people who have had mono will "shed" the virus. As of yet, we do not know if mono is contagious during these periods. In regard AIDS, when the disease is being "handled" by a cocktail of medications, is that disease disease contagious? IOW, I have not seen in medical literature the Patient Instructions that Magic Johnson is receiving (my understanding is that his HIV status is in "remission").

A very long winded way of saying that I don't know what I would do were I king. It is my guess that the pharmaceutical corps. will make India and S. Africa pay in some manner!

625. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 8:13:27 PM

Ranheim,

Thank you. As for your son, if he were here I'd be compelled to argue with him. My favorite uncle is a very senior employee of one of the very big US multinationals (I'll avoid mentioning the name) and he and I have repeatedly been amost forcibly separated when discussing this issue. The big R&D numbers grow and grow, what is it now $250 million to bring a new drug to market from scratch? It was 200. But the numbers are bullshit, I don't believe them. They're always trotted out to justify the horrific prices charged here, and the totally obscene profit margins made by these companies, but I guess you and I are quite evidently coming from different angles so let us not begin that one.

As for your mention of "shedding," that freaks me out. Are there other examples?

Finally, the pharmaceutical companies are rather pissed at India, and buying up competitors there when they can. There several superb companies there just waiting for a new drug from the big companies, and the two I mentioned are unbelievably fast at cloning, cheaply. A lot actually winds up being sold back to the patent-holder, but lots winds up in India and other countries, being sold very cheaply. The drug companies have managed to cow a good number of countries into not tapping into this source, but with SA's example possibly some of that will change. If the medicine is available to anyone it should pretty much be available to everyone, that's my feeling. Idealistic, I know.

626. ranheim - 9/13/1999 8:34:32 PM

Let me assure you, when you have THAT patient in your office, you, as an anti-govt. physician, can't understand why an exception (!) can't be made for your patient. And as long as that patient is ONE, you can generally find some way to obtain the proper treatment.

The problem comes is SubSahara Africa where the numbers are astonishing and medically trained personnel are in such short supply. {BTW were I king, that is one rule that I would change. The foreign medical graduates that come to the USA for more training would be required to return home; not stay in the USA. They are needed more in their home countries!}

I am sure that in an ideal world, some "nurse practicioner" could be put in charge of a very large quantity of a standard cocktail of anti-HIV medication/s. This would be treatment "by the numbers"; but, better that none at all! I have really never understood 3rd world diarrheal diseases. I handle them very simply every week in my office. Evidently, it is just the number of patients that overwhelm the medical effort in the 3rd world. It may be the same with HIV. The very numbers of patients overwhelm the system.

627. alistairconnor - 9/13/1999 8:39:06 PM

Basmati rice, the ancient and traditional product of the subcontinet, has been "patented" by a frigging Texas company. It's absurd, but that the truth.

- There is hope in that, Marj. it's so "patently" absurd that at some point, the whole idea must break down. Personally, I would like to see the principle of "no patents on living entities" established - not least because it would put the brakes on genetic engineering by eliminating the major source of revenues.

ranheim: Unfortunately, pharmaceutical corps. are in the business of the bottom line. And much/most of the bottom line comes from sales in the USA.

- Exactly. I have no quarrel with patent holders protecting their patents within the country of origin. So would their profitability be that much affected by overseas patent piracy anyway?

One wonders what sort of pressure would come on South Africa, if they started importing or manufacturing pirated AIDS cures. Lots of nasty back-channel stuff which wouldn't stand up to public scrutiny, I suppose.

628. ranheim - 9/13/1999 8:47:32 PM

I agree with Marj - I wouldn't trust their numbers.

I suspect that pharmaceutical profits would decline a whole lot less than "they" would lead us to believe. Central Louisiana is not that far from Mexico; I have patients going to Mexico for their medication all of the time. And Rx medication is the USA is over-the-counter there. CHEAPLY!!

For Europe and Asia, I am 25 years out of date. I won't even hazard a guess. Could Pelle comment on Scandanavia? Irv on Indonesia? What is your feel for New Zealand? etc.

629. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 9:08:16 PM

Well then we aren't so far apart, Ranheim. But you're not alone in desiring that no one rock the pharmaceutical companies activities. Nothing makes the faces of people grow blacker than this issue, I've found, especially of course the employees of the big few.

630. alistairconnor - 9/13/1999 9:12:24 PM

It's particularly striking that in certain countries, France for instance, the death rate from AIDS is now very low. The recent combinations of drugs are very effective in all but a small minority of cases. And in France, ability to pay is not a factor.

I have no idea what the situation is in the USA. Are people dying of AIDS because they can't afford the treatment, or are they taken care of by the collectivity?

631. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 9:15:21 PM

Ranheim, that's your purview.

632. alistairconnor - 9/13/1999 9:19:32 PM

In New Zealand, there is a government organism which I think has a monopoly on importing pharmaceuticals, and negotiates with the companies. They are starting to put more emphasis on generics, since they have an annual budget allocated by the state.

France has a pharmaceuticals industry which I believe is second only to the US. Over-prescribing is rampant there, you literally can't go to a doctor without coming out with a scrip for at least four or five things. Perhaps it's a patriotic reflex on the part of the doctors, more likely a mindset cultivated by incessant and pressing visits by drug company reps, with extensive goodies/junket budgets for the higher-ups among the medical profession.

633. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 9:24:28 PM

AC,

France is famously the most overmedicated country in the world. In anti-depressants alone the rate is something quite ridiculously high. I can find a reference, tomorrow, if you wish.

634. alistairconnor - 9/13/1999 9:29:57 PM

Yes, doctors certainly take a prozactive approach to treating depression. I find it a mind-blowing social phenomenon, you're practically not allowed to mourn a dead relative, they put you on chemical crutches.

635. Angel-Five - 9/13/1999 9:37:50 PM

Christianity isn't really a true monotheistic religion, though, what with the three aspects, the Virgin, the various Saints which are prayed to for intercession, the angels which are named... and, of course, there's Lucifer...

It's reasonable to group it with monotheism, but it isn't pure monotheism, in the opinion of this atheist mystic.

636. Angel-Five - 9/13/1999 9:39:43 PM

???? how the hell did that happen?


Marj, please delete.

637. marjoribanks - 9/13/1999 9:44:15 PM

Tomorrow, A5. I'm not doing anything extra till tomorrow. It'll be gone when you wake up.

638. robertjayb - 9/13/1999 10:24:10 PM

Posted at 9:36 p.m. EDT Monday, September 13, 1999


U.N. closing East Timor compound

DARWIN, Australia -- (AP) -- The United Nations is closing its besieged compound in Dili and evacuating 1,300 East Timorese to Australia, a spokesman said Tuesday.

U.N. mission chief Ian Martin said the world body was leaving about a dozen staff at a different location in the city.

Martin arrived in the northern Australian city of Darwin early Tuesday on the first of at least 12 flights out of Dili carrying to safety East Timorese who had sheltered in the compound and 110 nonessential U.N. staff.

``With their (the Timorese) arrivals here we have closed the ... compound in Dili,'' Martin said, referring to the U.N. mission in East Timor.

Martin said 12 U.N. staff would remain in Dili at another location and would continue to assess the security situation and liaise with the Indonesian military.

The Australian air force was carrying out the airlift using a fleet of C-130 Hercules cargo planes.

639. alistairconnor - 9/13/1999 11:01:46 PM

The U.N. mission got a lot of positive press here for staying put, despite orders from New York to evacuate. Must have been a tough call - sort of daring the Indonesian army to let the militias overrun the UN compound. Heroic? Hard to say without being there.

640. robertjayb - 9/14/1999 12:35:12 AM

By Doug Struck and Keith B. Richburg
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, September 14, 1999; Page A1


KUPANG, Indonesia, Sept. 13 – Jani thought he was safe on the ferry. After three days of terror in East Timor, the boat would take him and two college friends to refuge, he thought.
Then the militiamen boarded. No young men may leave East Timor, they announced as the boat prepared to depart. Jani, 27, tried to hide; the militiamen caught his friends. "Are there any others?" the militia demanded, Jani recalls. "No, no other young men," replied his friends in a last gift of kindness.

They marched Armando Gomez, 29, and Armando DiSilva, 30, to the front of the boat, and killed them before 200 refugees. Gomez's body was dumped in the sea; DiSilva's on the ground by the dock.

Jani raced through the boat. "Please help me," he whispered to the other refugees. A mother motioned to him to hide between her and her children. The searching militiamen walked by.

The account of Jani, now a fearful refugee in western Timor, adds to the mounting evidence that victims of the murderous rampage in East Timor following the territory's overwhelming vote for independence from Indonesia were systematically culled from the others.


more from The Washington Post article

641. pellenilsson - 9/14/1999 2:33:42 AM

marj

Now, Pelle, how about a Diary entry as lengthy as the above?

Thank you for the Goan report. Very illuminating and appealed to the historian in me. The root causes of things always lie further back than one first thinks, don't they.

The last thing I did at the office yesterday was to completely mess up the file with the report I'll present today, so I had to spent the whole evening recontructing it. And today is full of meetings, the first one starting soon.

So I will only manage a short post, if any at all. But I'll spend tonight musing a little. But in any case I don't think I have more than two or three posts left before I have to go for uninteresting trivial stuff. Count on discontinuing the thread at the end of the week. I think a diary from Namibia would be quite interesting.

642. pellenilsson - 9/14/1999 2:46:13 AM

Following sto's snide and chep remarks about snobbism yesterday, I'm pleased to announce that some of the finest snobbery can be found in my sub-thread. And I am proud to able to publish here a specimen of exquisite refinement and shameless self-aggrandiement.

On the other hand, for big expenditures, particularly art, I'm a ruthless negotiator - aware of a bargain and completely shameless about beating down prices if I sense a weakness in the seller. The most prominent contemporary art dealer in Mumbai actually displays real fear in his eyes when I walk casually into his establishment. He knows that he will wind up selling me something small or large, that it will be an exceptional and unusually fine example of the artist's work, and that I will cudgel his requests down to the point where it is a genuine bargain. And that he is more or less at my mercy, with no choice in the matter.

The author has requested anonymity.

643. CalGal - 9/14/1999 3:03:22 AM

644. pellenilsson - 9/14/1999 3:05:54 AM

Thanks CalGal!

645. CalGal - 9/14/1999 3:14:17 AM

You didn't end two tags--I should have checked. Sorry.

646. pellenilsson - 9/14/1999 3:40:01 AM

It's me who should have checked. Thanks again.

647. stostosto - 9/14/1999 3:52:47 AM

Pelle #642

I noted that too. But I am surprised he requested anonymity.

648. stostosto - 9/14/1999 3:58:24 AM

...I think you are being nobly protective. To protect the weak and the vulnerable is a typical Swedish instinct. (Danish as well, to some extent). You have built an entire Folkhem state to that end. But I doubt this chap really falls into that category.

649. pellenilsson - 9/14/1999 4:05:13 AM

You know me too well sto. But remember he is but a little chap who needs all the protection he can get.

650. stostosto - 9/14/1999 4:49:45 AM

marj

Thank you for the Goan stuff. It's really, really interesting. The concept of a Portuguese empire is fascinating and I have just discovered so recently.

I think it was my reading of Landes' "The Wealth And Poverty Of Nations. Why Some Are So Rich And Some So Poor." A treatise on why, basically, it was the Western European rather than, say, China that set out to dominate the world from about 1500. (Parallelling Jared Diamond's Guns, and Germs, and Steel - but focusing on the last 500 years - notably 1500-1800). Landes is clearly extremely taken with the Portuguese endeavours and devotes a large section of the book to it. Perhaps inordinately large. He attributes the Portuguese fall from top status to the Jesuits and their dogmatic thinking which stifled the Portuguese openmindedness and explorative spirit. This is very much in line with his general view on what makes nations rich, strong and powerful: Good old Anglo-Saxon virtues like personal and economic liberty, limited government interference, hard work, practical, undogmatic, rational thinking. And conversely that dogma and dictatorship stifles innovation and vigour. Seems to fit the Portuguese case. (He has more trouble in the South East Asian, Japanese, and, say, German cases).

651. stostosto - 9/14/1999 5:29:17 AM

Test

652. stostosto - 9/14/1999 5:31:57 AM

marj, ranheim, alistairconnor:

The discussion on patent rights on medicine is a matter in which I would like Spence to weigh in.

Patents are, in effect, a government granted monopoly. As such they are in breach with basic results on the merits of free competition. The problem is, of course, what would induce anyone to put in huge resources (whether the alleged numbers are true or not, they are undoubtedly large) in developing a product if competitors are free to copy the product right away, sell it cheaply, and prevent the innovator from ever recouping its R&D costs? Don't forget there is no guarantee that a given product will be a success. Hollywood, which, intriguingly, has a similar up-front cost structure to the pharmaceuticals, is said to only make money from one tenth of its films. They, too, are very strong lobbyists for strict enforcement of anti-piracy clauses in the WTO (not GATT anymore) agreements.

653. stostosto - 9/14/1999 5:32:24 AM

Some of this also goes for brand names such as Gucci, Rolex, Armani and the like, who use piles of money to market their brands, keeping them attractive enough to consumers to fetch a premium in the market. Pirates are free riding on this.

So, the western emphasis on what is called "intellectual property rights" is not entirely a plot to "to lock in the industrial and trading advantages of the developed world" as alistairconnor has it in #621. There is a most legitimate concern for upholding the incentive to invent and innovate.

That said, I think there is also a case for making AIDS medicine (or any other medicine) cheaply available globally. Conceivably, this could be done by having the government(s) buy out the patent rights and hand the recipe over to all interested producers. The market price would then be based on the direct (and often negligible) production cost of the product, rather than the total investment in the development of the product (plus investments in failed products).

This, however, will raise problems of its own.

654. pellenilsson - 9/14/1999 5:33:13 AM

sto

The question of what makes nations great is fascinating. The Economists frequently quotes the following:

1. A stable regulatory environment.

2. Transparent application of the regulations.

3. An independant judiciary as the instance of last resort.

These are applicable in Hongkong and Singapore as far as I understand, but not in e.g. Indonesia.

655. pellenilsson - 9/14/1999 5:45:34 AM

Some people in the Mote sometimes get their own thread, like health workers and educators. I don't think there ever will be a Telecommunications Thread. But since we were talking about Africa and its problems I will post a short piece from the report I just presented here. To put things in perspective, you should know that in the insdustrialised world the penetration rate is between 50 and 70 telephone lines per 100 population. Cellphones come on top of that (currently around 50% penetration in Scandinavia).

Here in Mozambique the penetration is 0.4%. It has long been a mantra among development workers that telecommunications are essential for social and economic development. With the coming of Internet the situation is becoming more acute, in my view. Think of the vast pool of knowledge available there. And the possibilities for tele-medicin, distance learning, reference literature of all kinds. Relatively speaking, these resources are more important for developing countries who lack well-stocked libraries and book shops. And almost all of it is free.

656. pellenilsson - 9/14/1999 5:51:21 AM

Acronyms:

VoIP Voice over IP, Internet telephony.
PSTN Public Switched Network, the one you use every day.
POTS Plain Old Telephone Service.

Telecom operators in developing countries face many problems. Their revenue base is being eroded by call-back operators, reforms of the international settlement system and VoIP. Companies send faxes over the Internet instead of the PSTN. They have tariff systems where international calls subsidise local calls allowing for cream-skimming schemes such as call-back. And it can be difficult and politically sensitive to rebalance the tariffs. Lastly, they may have a rigid, change-resistant institutional structure which does not adopt well to the new dynamics in the telecom field.

But this report deals mainly with technical matters and also here developing countries face unique problems. To understand we have to go back and look at developments in the industrialised world. When the move forward from POTS to value-added service took off in the late 1980', many countries had reached, or nearly reached, saturation in their fixed network.. Consequently there was a network in place - almost completely copper - that reached virtually every premise and every household in the country. POTS was no longer a problem. Operators could re-focus their institutional competence towards the provision of new services.

In developing countries, the situation is radically different. Penetration rates are low or very low. There is a crying need to provide basic telephone service. At the same time there is a strong demand for new services. Telecom and datacom are increasingly important as management tools. Countries who want to attract foreign investments must provide adequate services. But they are also needed by the indigenous business community in these days when the links between businesses in different countries are become more and more closely woven.

657. pellenilsson - 9/14/1999 5:53:47 AM

So, telecom operators face the need to radically expand POTS and provide new services. Operators in the industrialised world largely escaped that challenge. Granted that many services can be provided by the private sector it is still only the dominant telecom operator that can provide the infrastructure they run on.

To make matters worse, a large part of the population lives in rural areas. The R&D efforts of the telecom industry go to where the money is, i.e. to the industrial world. There has never been any major, concerted effort to develop and standardise a suitable and affordable rural telecom infrastructure. Yet, to bring telecommunications - and with it the Internet - to rural areas could bring so many benefits - tele-medicine, distance learning, on-line literature, just to name a few.

There is no good solution to this problem.

658. stostosto - 9/14/1999 5:55:08 AM

Pelle

Do you mean The Economist or the economists?

But yes. The rule of law is generally high on the list of both of the above. Enforceable property rights, free entry to the market, and a free trade regime are other staples. And often also - but now we are getting ambitious - a good public infrastructure, including general schooling. (Free schooling for all - including, importantly, girls - is better than pampering elite universities. Contrasting examples are Latin America and South East Asia).

Anyway this doesn't resolve the matter of whether there are ultimate causes of national strength beyond those proximate, institutional causes. Here, the question is the "culture vs. institutions" debate.

Jared Diamond, who was discussed at length in TPWWWNMA, is emphatically on the institutions side; that is his point is that culture is a product of the circumstances, so it would, by extension, be malleable given the right institutions.

Gunnar Myrdal, Swedish Nobel laureate in economics had a contribution on these matters, dubbed "the hard state". The issue is not so much whether the state is capitalist, socialist, fascist, or democratic. but whether its actions are transparent and predictable. Can it be trusted upon to enforce rules and laws rather than simply to protect the narrow interests of the incumbents.

(Myrdal, btw, was awarded the Nobel jointly with Friedrich Hayek - much to the annoyance of both. I think our fellow Motie Spence Mirrlees' position is that Myrdal is not really a true economist so it's unfathomable how he would be eligible in the first place. I imagine also that PE would jump his "earnest and pansy Scandinavian" gun on the mentioning of Myrdal).

659. stostosto - 9/14/1999 6:05:36 AM

Pelle my #658 was to your #654.

Good report on telecoms. How about wireless telephony? Satellites will soon be circling the earth, all transmission technologies will be digital rather than analogue; compression technology, expanding band width in other kinds of networks - wouldn't all this alleviate the need for putting down actual wires?

And if wires are to be put down: Surely they ought to be fibers, right?

660. pellenilsson - 9/14/1999 6:14:11 AM

sto

I meant The Economist.

Do you think that this discussion should move to Economy?

You are probably right about what Pseudo would say. Maybe we should join forces and pose as ardent Myrdal supporters when we have an opportunity? Could provoke some interesting language.

I'll drop a note to Spence.

By the way Myrdal and his wife Alva will figure prominently in the next part of my History as our leading social engineers. To a large extent we still live in a society designed by the Myrdals. It will have to wait, though. It was just decided to extend my stay here until the last of the month.

661. pellenilsson - 9/14/1999 6:33:37 AM

sto

Happy Birthday you Big Handsome Dane!

662. stostosto - 9/14/1999 6:56:55 AM

Pelle

Thank you. How did you know I am big?

Good plan on the Myrdals and PE. It's sure to make for some really exquisite PE ranting.

663. SpenceMirrlees - 9/14/1999 7:21:36 AM

I take a very broad view of economics and the Economics Prize (not really a Nobel) -- Myrdal is fine with me. His discussion of race problems in the US was very prescient, and the man certainly put his economics to work. But, he definitely was a pansy, no question.

Both lines of discussion -- patents and the mapping from institutions to development -- would certainly be welcome in the econ & polecon thread. It is to engender more of this in the Mote that we broadened the title.

That said, I don't really care where these discussions occur, as long as they always have a home. They're here, and I don't care if they stay here or go there, but god knows how marjoribanks feels about his fiefdom.

664. SpenceMirrlees - 9/14/1999 7:24:01 AM

On second thought...my comments on patents will be almost entirely devoid of direct implications for international affairs and will hopefully spin off into a more economic-oriented discussion anyway, so I will post them in the econ & polecon thread...later today.

"How did you know I am big?"

Let the man fantasize.

Happy birthday.

665. pellenilsson - 9/14/1999 7:47:48 AM

sto

There was a photo, remember?

A last digression on telecoms before marj wakes up and sees what we have done to his cherised thread. I have posted a little insignificant thing in the sub-thread by the way.

Yes, wireless are bound to take over and I'm going to propose a wireless solution for rural telephony here. GSM in fact, but in a lower frequency band which gives more coverage per base station. In theory, 30 of them would be enough for all of Mozambique (if it were flat).

The flop of the Iridium venture casts doubt over satellite solutions for voice. I think the whole business concept has become obsolete with the rapid spread of GSM networks. Scott hates cellphones but I think it is a truly wonderful thing that I can switch on the phone here and get connected to the local network. And if someone right at this moment calls my Swedish GSM number the phone will ring here.

Finally, sto. I used 'shambuckle' in Culture yesterday. I put 'TM sto^3', but are there any royalty payments to consider as well?

666. stostosto - 9/14/1999 7:54:50 AM

Pelle

GSM it is, then. The Iridium failed, but the satellites are there, right? And wasn't this failure due to exorbitant pricing plus bulky equipment that didn't measure up to what we well-travelled, high-powered, busy high-flying business people are used to in GSM gear and other things? I would imagine it's a matter of time before sat-phones would be compatible to cell-phones (but time is not irrelevant, I know that). Is the GSM system digitally based, by the way?

667. stostosto - 9/14/1999 7:58:35 AM

Oh, and Pelle:

Yes, there was a picture. But how can you tell from that how big I am?

And do by all means feel free to use 'shambuckle' (my original spelling was 'shambackle', so you have already developed it. I did notice your use of it in the hay sweep story. But I'd rather keep myself out of any debate on agricultural machinery).

668. pellenilsson - 9/14/1999 8:01:12 AM

Final final. Yes GSM is digital. Data transmission rate is a paltry 9.6 Kb/s. You can read email but not much else. New technology which will increase the rate to 144 Kb/s (same as ISDN) will start to go up next year. Count on intial hefty prices both for the handsets and the service!

669. ranheim - 9/14/1999 8:21:37 AM

I'm back for this one post prior to work.

In regard free/cheap medications for AIDS patients in the USA. It is possible that there is a different policy/s in the 50 states. In LA there are hospices; but, seems to me, that they are for dying - and dying out of sight AND in a cheaper location than a hospital bed. They receive free/cheap medication; but, it is usually too late by the time a patient comes to the attention of a hospice. To my knowlege, there is no national program to provide free/cheap medication/s for AIDS.

Pelle

Ever since I became (really) aware of computers and the internet, I have been reading articles as to how China's infrastructure/or lack thereof would be changing the way other 3rd world countries approach rural electrification and telephone lines. The thrust of these articles has always been that China would go wireless.

Is this 'pie in the sky' thinking? In the USA, the REA (Rural Electrification Association(Agency?) was a huge deal in my youth in rural Minnesota. I remember both sets of grandparents being hooked up to 'party lines' when I was a very young child. Many rural people in all sections of the USA would not have had either electric power or 'phone lines without government aid (I think, mainly, in the form of tax breaks for corps).

Is it possible to avoid the step of an REA-like organization in a 3rd world country's develpoment?

670. pellenilsson - 9/14/1999 9:11:20 AM

sto

Yes, there was a picture. But how can you tell from that how big I
am?

I cannot. I just wanted 'Big Dane' in there.

671. pellenilsson - 9/14/1999 9:26:20 AM

ranheim

Wireless is a solution for the so called "Last Mile Problem", that is how to give access to subscribers to a central point in the network form where their calls can be carried to where ever, without laboriously putting a lot of copper cables into the ground. These points are called base stations. But they, in turn, need to be connected to somewhere. So there will always be a need to build a transmission network - optical fibre cables or microwave links. Satellites can be used too but the recurrent costs are high and there are bandwidth limitations.

Cooperation between power and telecom is the obvious solution. There are techniques now for putting fibres inside the power conductors for new lines, and for latching them onto conductors on existing lines.

Here in Mozambique the situation is unique in that the power grid was heavily damaged in the civil war. They have spent much effort to rebuild it and are now starting to expand. I am going to propose the solution above as the quickest means of reaching the rural areas.

672. pellenilsson - 9/14/1999 10:21:28 AM

marj

There are some posts on telecommunications starting at #655. You might care to move them to the new Technical Thread.

673. Lepus E Ursa - 9/14/1999 10:40:08 AM

Pelle means the Science and Technology thread which I am now hosting (not to be confused with the Technical Issues thread). Feel free to move Pelle's posts there if you like.

674. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/14/1999 11:43:22 AM

Pelle (654):
3. An independant judiciary as the instance of last resort.

These are applicable in Hongkong and Singapore as far as I understand

I don't think you can classify Singapore's judiciary as "independent." They will always rule as the government wishes.

(657)
Yet, to bring telecommunications - and with it the Internet - to rural areas could bring so many benefits - tele-medicine, distance learning, on-line literature, just to name a few.

In most developing countries, you run up against a serious obstruction in implementing this dream, and that is the problem of language (and literacy).

Take Mozambique for example. I assume education is conducted in Portuguese. The population has a literacy rate of 40% (quite high for Africa).

So, for the 40% of the population who can read, the language they use is Portuguese, a language in which internet resources are rather limited.

For the remaining 60% of the population, internet resources are useless, both for literacy and language reasons (I assume illiterate people do not in general speak Portuguese either).

In a country such as Indonesia, with 90% literacy, the usefulness of internet resources boils down to language issues alone... less than 1% of the population can read English well enough to derive any benefit from the internet.

One idle question: is English taught as a foreign language in Mozambique? Are there many proficient speakers?

675. ScottLoar - 9/14/1999 11:50:23 AM

And I had thought the internet as panacea was the sole province of Al Gore.

676. pellenilsson - 9/14/1999 11:57:31 AM

Irv

You caught me at a bad time, I'm about to pull the plug and go.

All I have time to say is that I find your objections somewhat shortsighted and static. The Internet is a thing under development. Fast development. Brazil is a big, fairly developed country. Portuguese content is sure to come.

677. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/14/1999 12:07:57 PM

Pelle:
That was the most minor of my objections. I'm sure Portuguese-language content is growing rapidly (as is content in other languages, including Indonesian), but content in other languages will never come close to what is available in English.

I just don't see the internet as an answer for nations which are largely illiterate, or for nations so mired in poverty that basic education and provision of electricity are major concerns.

678. marjoribanks - 9/14/1999 12:14:31 PM

Lepus, Pelle,

The telecom discussion from yesterday evening fits here fine, it has lots of International implications. If there are specific parts you'd like to have in Science and Technology, perhaps they can be copied and pasted there.

Irv,

I tend to agree with Pelle. There is already a surprising amount of Portuguese language content on the web, and it is growing very rapidly. A few weeks ago, I met a distinguished Latin American-born specialist in E-commerce, who said that there is the beginnings of a huge Internet boom in those countries, showing signs of being the equivalent of the boom (IPO's, rash of start-ups, markedly increased connectivity) that took place in the US over the past few years and in Europe particularly this year. Brazil is shaping up as one of the main hubs.

Hence, I think the Portuguese language content and services will come, without a doubt. Heck, if pages in Tamil and Telegu and Malayalam can grow as exponentially as they have over the past year (even though most Internet users who are fluent in those languages speak English as well), it is easy to envisage Portuguese carving itself a niche as solidly as German and French have, for instance.

679. marjoribanks - 9/14/1999 12:15:38 PM

Cross post. Sorry, Irv.

680. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/14/1999 12:58:42 PM

A quick update on East Timor.

The lead story in today's Jakarta Post had Ali Alatas (from New York) talking tough and saying that Indonesia might delay any deployment of UN Forces until their reservations were met. Furthermore, Wiranto said that UN Forces will not be allowed in until Indonesia deals with the militias itself, and reiterated that secirity in East Timor is Indonesia's responsibility alone.

Oddly enough, this story doesn't appear in the on-line edition of the Jakarta Post. I had wanted to link it to show what a jerk Alatas is, and how Indonesia may still have a hidden agenda.

The articles in today's on-line edition are much more supportive of the forces. You may want to check out these stories: Mary Robinson met with Habibie and spoke about reports of human rights abuses, the armed forced said they will crack down on militias, the legislature passed a bill guaranteeing press freedoms, and Xanana Gusmão says he's ready to forgive past wrongs.

And, lest you feel everything is going well, check out this article which shows that the boat could still be rocked:

Indonesia wants Australia Kept Off UN Force

681. marjoribanks - 9/14/1999 1:13:38 PM

Thank you, Irv. The situation still doesn't look very hopeful, does it?

I've been checking out the Jakarta Post regularly since you posted the link to it, and I must say that I am thoroughly impressed. In fact, it is causing me to change my mind about the inevitablity of shallowness and irresponsibility in a media recently freed from strictures. The Post seems to maintain an uncompromising and very apparent moral compass. I hope it survives and prospers. Shabash to them.

An excellent editorial comprehensively covering the genesis and development of the E. Timor issue. The only quibble I have with its reasonableness is when the author describes "differences" which have been exposed among the Timorese. In fact, I haven't seen to much evidence of this - I wonder if Irv might comment.

682. ranheim - 9/14/1999 1:24:44 PM

Irv

My local papers and NPR have not had one word about any delay in an "UN Force" entering E. Timor. They say that it is only a question of getting everyone ready; but, more importantly, there are not yet enough airplanes available for an air-lift. That , presumably,
is where the USA enters the equation.

So far as the Australian presence is concerned, both quoted Clinton. Evidently, Clinton said something to the effect that Indonesia could not and should not control the mix of countries who's troups would make up the UN Force. Clinton added that the USA presence would be limited to air crews; communications personnel; possibly military police; and intelligence (of which the USA has shown precious little in recent months).

683. marjoribanks - 9/14/1999 1:27:31 PM

Ranheim,

The US reportage is quite ridiculous, I've read a lot of it now.

The fact is Clinton can say whatever the hell he wants about not letting the Indonesian terms, but the Security Council still has to vote on the force. And if Indonesia's terms are not met, the deal is off. It is that simple.

684. marjoribanks - 9/14/1999 1:27:58 PM

letting the Indonesians dictate terms...

685. ranheim - 9/14/1999 1:43:29 PM

I hate to admit my ignorance! As I recall China, France, Russia, UK, and USA are permanent members. Additionaly, there is some sort of rotation policy whereby all other member nations are members for 1 or 2 year terms. A dozen of them?

Does #683 mean that you are assuming that the Chinese will vote with the Indonesians? Or against the USA? Thus rendering the UN impotent?

686. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/14/1999 2:05:54 PM

ranheim:
The Chinese have indicated tey will shoot down any proposal not acceptable to the Indonesians.

Marj:
That is an excellent editorial. I'm not sure what "differences" you quibble with, but you can't argue that East Timorese society is not seriously divided right now. And the divisions in East Timor society are historical and well documented.

The problems Omar Halim mentions are the same ones I brought up in the old place back in February, when I expressed serious reservations about Habibie's formula. I had the feeling the west was asking for a "quick fix" to a more complicated problem. I think Gus Dur's proposal would have had a greater chance of success, and would have been more likely to ensure a smooth transition to the inevitable independence.

Omar Halim correctly points out many of the cultural factors which I routinely see dismissed in the western reporting. Howeve, those factors are very real to those in East Timor and Indonesia. Unfortunately, the entire world doesn't operate by western rules and culture.

687. marjoribanks - 9/14/1999 2:11:38 PM

Well, he is speculating (or perhaps pointing out accurately) that there are significant and worrying divides among the Timorese. Is that true?
I mean, right now it appears that you have the militia and perhaps their few supporters, and then you have everyone else. The evidence to prove that these divides exist has not been seen by me, at least. I'd appreciate you describing them. It's crucial to the whole issue an I'm very interested.

688. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/14/1999 2:19:10 PM

Marj:
The referendum showed a clear divide between the 80% who wanted independence and the 20% who didn't. The seriousness of this divide has been underlined by the reactions of the losers (the "vanquished," as Omar puts it) as the militias, reinforced by East Timorese deserters from the Indonesian armed forces and police (and possibly actively assisted by the Indonesian military), have been on a rampage. The percentage of the population not favoring independence may only number 20%, but I don't think it's proper to label them all as members of the militias "and perhaps their few supporters." 20% is a not insignificant number when describing the society as seriously divided.

I am hoping that Gusmão's approach will aid in eventual reconciliation. If anyone can do it, he can.

689. marjoribanks - 9/14/1999 2:23:35 PM

Irv,

I agree with you, and it is a profound issue to be opposed on. But in any other country of the world, when 80% of the people are on one side and only 20% on the other, commentators do not make statements about serious divides. But perhaps the context is everything in this case.

Is there any site remotely as good as the Jakarta Post? By the way, do you know who owns the Post, and the name and backround of its top editor? I'm forwarding the site to a raft of journalist friends right now, and I know they're going to be very impressed. It's really a very fine and well-reasoned publication.

690. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/14/1999 2:35:50 PM

Marj:
I disagree. I think when 20% of a society are as opposed as this 20% are, it's a serious divide.

The Post is owned by Kompas, Indonesia's top Indonesian-language newspaper, which in turn is owned by a Catholic foundation.

I'm not familiar with the current (new) editor of the Jakarta Post. I know a number of the other editors pretty well, though, and all are very sharp. They've also had a few excellent expat writers and assistants over the years. Back in the 80s, Bill Tarrant (now head of Asia for Reuters) and Adam Schwarz (possibly the top American commentator on Indonesia) both worked there as editorial assistants.

There are a few other excellent sites on Indonesia, as well as a few outstanding exclusive mailing lists (which I have the good fortune to be on). I'll post some urls tomorrow. Right now it's 2:30 in the morning, and I'm fading.

691. marjoribanks - 9/14/1999 2:39:11 PM

Go to sleep, man. And thank you.

692. marjoribanks - 9/14/1999 6:30:38 PM

If this article is correct, Ali Atalas has dropped the Indonesian objection to having the Australians in charge of the UN peacekeeping mission, and the troops could be landing as early as next weekend. If so, it's a small face-save for the UN, which has looked extremely sorry ever since it shepherded the referendum process without taking measures to control the inevitable aftermath.

693. marjoribanks - 9/14/1999 6:35:16 PM

Here's a tiny snipped from the AIDS Conference in Zambia relevant to the earlier discussion on Africa.

"AIDS SPREADS in African cities more quickly where younger girls become sexually active and where lack of male circumcision increases disease risk in unprotected sex, shows a UN study at an Aids conference in Lusaka"

Another cited cultural reason. You can find a lot more at the Independent but you'll have to look on the home page for the link to the article since I can't link directly to it.

694. marjoribanks - 9/14/1999 7:07:07 PM

The last few months have been seeing an interesting lobbying effort by Arabs and Arab-American groups, an attempt to prevent big multinationals from doing business in the settlements in the West Bank. A particulat furor, which was front page in Al Ahram for a long time, was this proposed Millennium Village in the Disney compounds in Florida, which purportedly featured a map of Israel showing Jerusalem as its capital. It was recently announced that the threatened boycott worked, Haaretz. I wonder if Pike has some comments.

By the way, as the article mentions, Burger King was also forced to cave in and pull a franchise out of a settlement.

I'm assuming there's a lot of resentment in Israel on the issue. However, I don't blame the Arabs for pursuing their goal. Microsoft, mighty Microsoft. had to back down and change its Encarta encyclopedia because India disputed the way the Kashmir border was depicted.

695. marjoribanks - 9/14/1999 7:30:56 PM

It appears to be confirmed, and the deal will be concluded tonight.

Australia to lead UN mission.

I must say that the Indonesians seem to have behaved very honorably in this particular little phase of the negotiations. If they had dragged their feet it could have take weeks or not happened at all. The Jakarta Post and Irv's reports were right all along, public opinion must have been so resoundingly against the machinations and army involvement in E. Timor that even the top leadership felt compelled to act.

696. stostosto - 9/14/1999 7:36:03 PM

Good. Isn't Habibie surprisingly OK, after all?

697. robertjayb - 9/14/1999 7:40:50 PM

The PBS Lehrer show had a telephone interview tonight from East Timor with an American journalist who claimed to be in the custody of the Indonesian military.

Allan Nairn said he had been questioned at both a military and a police headquarters. He said the military people were burning files
in preparation for leaving the country.

Nairn spoke by cell phone from a military headquarters and said that his benign treatment was due to his status as an American journalist and the fact that he was well-known in political circles.

698. marjoribanks - 9/14/1999 7:48:48 PM

Sto,

I notice you're around. I'd like to give you another little dose in the tutorial on Goan politics.

In the days after Independence, the main party (supported by virtually everyone sane) was the Congress Party of Nehru. And there was a smaller party, the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party, which represnted the tiny minority seeking a merger with the state to the North. Sadly, Goan policians being Goan politicians, the Congress party became riven with dissent and a large group split off it calling themselves the United Goans. So now there were three parties. This was twenty years ago. By the way the entire Goan assembly only has forty seats.

In the next few years, the parties split and re-split. There are now no less than eight parties, three versions of the Congress, including the rather ridiculously named Rajiv Gandhi Congress (the party favored by Sonia Gandhi, for obvious reasons), and now, an era of defections has taken over. You need an MLA? It'll cost x rupees and he'll quit his party and join yours. It's gotten so bad that people are switching twice and thrice in a single year, toppling governments and propping them up at a rate where even seasoned observers get confused. Remember, again, that there are only forty seats in the legislature.

This current bozo/thief in charge, who you will remember from our earlier conversation, is in a rickety position with a tattered coalition keeping him in power. So he has hit on the novel idea of promising Cabinet positions to any defector who joins him. The Cabinet has risen to as many as 14 members. It was down to single digits a few months later, but as you can see from this article, it's back up again. And it will expand further. I have the inside info. Goa will have as many as 18 Ministers! In a legislature of forty people!

What can you say about a place like that stostosto? Perhaps you will find the words.

699. marjoribanks - 9/14/1999 7:53:11 PM

In a place like Denmark, I'm sure there would be an uproar (muted, and geteel of course). But nobody really cares in Goa. You will note that the CM actually lists his mobile telephone number for people to contact him. You might imagine that he's inundated with people complaining or cajoling him. He isn't. nobody calls him.

700. marjoribanks - 9/15/1999 12:13:02 AM

Last post:

In Table Talk, in a thread on what you admire about other cultures, the following exchange took place.

Emanuel Bergmann

"I admire the ducks of England. From the "great whistler" to the "spotted tail", the UK has a rich and diverse culture of ducks."


etc, etc.

To which I replied:

"I admire the dour uprightedness of Swedes. For instance, though I've never seen him before, the dour uprightedness of Mr. Bergmann in "admiring" the ducks of England is priceless, and he has to be a Swedish person expressing himself "humorously", letting the hair down so to speak.

"the UK has a rich and diverse culture of ducks. "

Classic Swedish hilariousness."

Was I justified? Am I not right? I eagerly await Pelle's (and sto's) judgement.

701. cmboyce - 9/15/1999 1:57:16 AM

Marj, did Mr. Bergmann acknowledge your reply?

702. pellenilsson - 9/15/1999 2:54:07 AM

marj

Finally you have met your master in subtleness. Your comment revealed you as a gross, insensitive type. But don't worry. You have lots and lots of company.

703. pellenilsson - 9/15/1999 2:56:56 AM

On the other hand. Bergman is a Swedish name but Bergmann is almost certainly not. So if you substitute 'German' for 'Swedish' it shows that you are indeed very witty and perceptive.

704. pellenilsson - 9/15/1999 3:09:48 AM

Irv -- #674

I have already said that I find your views on the internet somewhat short-sighted and static. I would add anglocentric, uncharacteristically so coming from you. It is true that contents on the net is dominated by English but that doesn't detract from the fact that there is rich content in smaller languages as well, e.g the Nordic ones, including Icelandic with 250,000 speakers. The thing to remember here is that contents is a question of 'push'; actors, whether commercial ones, universities or bird watching societies want to reach out. Setting up a site is cheap and there is always somebody who is willing to run it.

In the specific case of Mozambique machine translation comes into play as well. It is true that one can laugh at the output from babelfish.com but most of it is understandable, if not enjoyable. A lot of R&D goes into this area, not least on behalf of EU, which has a real problem with translation of all the documents generated there.

I find your point that for the remaining 60% of the population, internet resources are
useless, both for literacy and language reasons a bit off the point really. The 40% that are literate are the ones who run this country in all aspects. Why should providing the Internet to them be hampered by the fact that 60% cannot use it? And the 40% figure is irrelevant anyhow. The real question is the literacy rate for those below 20 or 25., the next generation, whose chances of bettering themselves through the use of Internet resources would be of real benefit. For the even younger, the chances of getting a secondary school education through distance learning is equally important in a country with a acute shortage of teachers and books.

705. pellenilsson - 9/15/1999 3:17:31 AM

I don't think that we disagree on the benefits of the Internet, and I hope I have made it clear that in my view language and literacy are less important than you think. We now come to the real problem here: that for every hundred persons only four have a telephone. But in fact that is another of those misleading stats because it fails to take into account average household size. Using basic arithmetic, assuming a household size of six persons and knowing that out of the 100,000 telephone lines here 25% go to business and administration, I find that out of the 40% literate persons

Only 7% have a telephone line in their home on which to access the Internet.

There are two sources of error. Some illiterate persons may have a telephone and some literates may have access at their workplace.

The Internet is here, obviously, since I can post this. There are six ISPs who have six thousand accounts between them. For cost reasons, dial-up access is only practical in Maputu. This means that about 10% of the telephone users there also use the Internet. Need I remind anyone that it is only a few years ago a similar figure applied in the US?

And why should not the situation be similar in Indonesia although absolute numbers would of course be much higher. Why don't you find out how many users there are and how many web sites in Indonesian and then check every month. I'm sure you'll see exponential growth of both. I'm surprised at your statism, the young fellow that you are.

706. pellenilsson - 9/15/1999 3:18:43 AM

As to your last question, Irv, it is quite possible to use English as a working language here, and I get the impression that overall, knowledge isn't bad among the young. Many of the engineers I meet are proficient, but that may be the result of a pre-selection process. I'm told by people who has worked here before that there has been a radical improvement compared to 15-20 years back.

I'm writing this Tuesday evening and am about to go down to the coffee-shop for a bite, which reminds me that I forgot to check if anybody had commented in the sub-thread on giblets and pig's ears. I'll have to get hold of a proficient waiter (there are two) to get an explanation.

707. pellenilsson - 9/15/1999 3:21:08 AM

And, finally: Lack of knowledge in English may hamper access to content. But you can learn English on the Internet, not that I can give an URL now but there must be several.

708. pellenilsson - 9/15/1999 3:55:05 AM

Long post in the sub-thread.

709. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/15/1999 9:29:07 AM

The lead story in today's Jakarta Post:

Annan Expects First Peacekeepers Soon

And here is the latest news on East Timor:

• Australia will lead the UN Peacekeeping Force
• The Military has pledged its support for the UN Peacekeepers
• Five Nations will take part in the Peacekeeping Forces: Australia, South Korea, The Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei.

Ali Alatas, however, will not let the issue of Australian participation and leadership go. The report linked above includes the following:

"However, Alatas questioned whether Australia should command such an operation and said he would prefer peacekeepers from members of theAssociation of Southeast Asian Nations.

"Australia, he said, was not the only country in the world that could lead the force.

""But that's a preference, that's not a conditionality," he added.

"UN sources said Alatas was "sensitive" about Australia, which has angered Indonesians because of its widespread protests over recent events in East Timor.

"Alatas told reporters: "We did not come here to prevent any country from participating."

"But in reference to Australia leading the force, he added: "Countries themselves (have) to consider what is appropriate, whether their presence would or would not exacerbate the situation rather than improve the situation."

For those of us who know Indonesia well, these words do not bode well for the success of the operation.


Some of the 140,000 refugees who have been moved from East Timor arriving in Kupang (on the Indonesian half of the island).

710. MrSocko - 9/15/1999 9:52:22 AM

"UN sources said Alatas was "sensitive" about Australia, which has angered Indonesians because of its widespread protests over recent events in East Timor.[...]

"But in reference to Australia leading the force, he added: "Countries themselves (have) to consider what is appropriate, whether their presence would or would not exacerbate the situation rather than improve the situation."



Well, it seems that Mr. Alatas is an idiot. And a total clown.

711. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/15/1999 10:01:36 AM

Socko:
I don't disagree with your depiction of Ali Alatas, as I am no fan of his. But he is saying something in an Indonesian way which may be missed by western observers: there is a great deal of anger right now in Indonesia about the way Australia has handled the situation, even among Indonesians who have loudly attacked the military over its actions in East Timor. Indonesians cannot accept Australians burning the Indonesian flag, refusing to serve Indonesian airplanes or ships in Australia, and threatening a military attack. They see these things as a lack of respect for Indonesia as a nation, when in fact they actually show the ignorance of the average Australian toward what is going on in Indonesia.

The situation in East Timor is not the fault of Indonesia as a nation, and is not the fault of the Indonesian government. Blame rests entirely with the military, which has mishandled the situation for 24 years, and is unable to exit properly. The government has shown it has no control over the situation, and the military has no support from the people of Indonesia.

It all comes down to the all-important Asian concept of "face." Australia has caused the Indonesian nation to lose face, and people here feel this was unjustified. The average Indonesian is just as sick about what has happened in East Timor as the average westerner. But that doesn't excuse insults to the nation and the people.

It is unfortunate that Australia is insisting on leading and participating in the upcoming mission. They will get little cooperation from Indonesians, and it threatens the success of the mission.

712. ScottLoar - 9/15/1999 10:06:48 AM

So, too, it has been readily apparent to both countries for decades that Australian offshore military exercises and strategies posit Indonesia as the most likely enemy.

713. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/15/1999 11:40:19 AM

Here are some very different takes, from Singapore, on the current situation in Indonesia:

For a depressing view, full of dire predictions, see this story from the Singapore Business Times:

Jakarta Gripped by Talk of Imminent High-Level Purge

Highlights:

• "Even though armed forces chief General Wiranto had agreed to the presence of UN troops in East Timor, he was by no means happy with the decision and is fighting rising discontent within his ranks."

• "The military is also understood to be split on the East Timor issue and Gen Wiranto is not in full control of his regional commanders and can no longer guarantee that they will follow his orders"

• "UN troops who enter the territory may find themselves fighting the military-backed militia and that could turn into a wider security problem. If that were to occur, the military would be able to garner public support in repelling a foreign presence."

• "If the nationalists are pitted against the Islamic camp, it will polarise politics in the country," said Simon Goddard from Decision Strategies Fairfax International Asia, a regional consultancy firm. "To avoid a break-up of Indonesia, it is conceivable for the military to impose martial law in the country."

714. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/15/1999 11:41:12 AM

For a more upbeat view see this report in the Singapore Straits Times:

Military Set to Wash Hands of Tomor 'Mess'

Highlights:

• ""No way do we want to control the peacekeeping force," a senior government official told The Straits Times, rejecting media speculation that Jakarta wanted a largely Asian force which it could dominate."

• ""As Gen Wiranto told me, if the international community does not trust us any more, then let them see the reality for themselves, let their peacekeepers come."

• "Antagonism towards Australia is so high among the pro-Indonesia militias in East Timor that the presence of a large contingent of Australian soldiers would raise tensions, making it even more difficult to keep the peace, officials in Jakarta said."

715. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/15/1999 11:52:57 AM

For a more upbeat view see this report in the Singapore Straits Times:

Military Set to Wash Hands of Tomor 'Mess'

Highlights:

• ""No way do we want to control the peacekeeping force," a senior government official told The Straits Times, rejecting media speculation that Jakarta wanted a largely Asian force which it could dominate."

• ""As Gen Wiranto told me, if the international community does not trust us any more, then let them see the reality for themselves, let their peacekeepers come."

• "Antagonism towards Australia is so high among the pro-Indonesia militias in East Timor that the presence of a large contingent of Australian soldiers would raise tensions, making it even more difficult to keep the peace, officials in Jakarta said."

716. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/15/1999 11:58:06 AM

Aaargh... I just lost a post, and it reposted the earlier post when I tried to resurrect the one I lost.

Anyway, here is Breaking News

Yesterday a massive university student demonstration in Bandung protesting martial law culminated in a clash between students and the military.

According to reports, three students were shot last night by the military.

Press reports of the incident have been slow in appearing, possibly due to military pressure.

If true, this could lead to a "people power" uprising against the military similar to the protests which toppled Suharto last year, which you may recall began with the military shooting 5 students.

And, once again, you heard it here first.

717. marjoribanks - 9/15/1999 12:12:47 PM

Amazing scoop, Irv. If you're right, I hope the civilian protests occur safely, and that the army leadership has the good sense to hand control over to the next generation of leaders.

On the other hand, I cannot think of a place where such a phenomenon has played itself out and the "people" have won over an entrenched "military."

718. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/15/1999 12:17:49 PM

Marj:
On the other hand, I cannot think of a place where such a phenomenon has played itself out and the "people" have won over an entrenched "military."

Well, the inspiration for the students last year was the Philippines. In that country, you may recall, the military initially confronted the people, only to back down, and in many cases, join in the protests. It would be nice if such a scenario could play out here.

719. marjoribanks - 9/15/1999 12:22:17 PM

Yes, Irv, and the same kind of thing happened to some extent in the former Communist bloc.

But I have Pakistan in mind, and in that country the military would never relinquish the reins, no matter how bloody it got. I hope, sincerely, that events will be different in Indonesia.

Please keep us updated, I've got to leave for several hours now and look forward to more when I return. By the way, your posts of today are simply the best single place I have seen on the Internet to learn about the events in Indonesia and view cogent, clear and insightful analysis. Thank you.

720. marjoribanks - 9/15/1999 12:23:08 PM

your posts of today make this simply etc etc.

I'm gone.

721. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/15/1999 12:30:18 PM

Marj:
I'd like to think that the Indonesian military is different from Pakistan. I don't think they would fight against the people of Indonesia, if public sentiment was clearly against them (as it is right now).

722. cmboyce - 9/15/1999 12:31:55 PM

Several of the inside pages of the Jakarta Post amplify the concern that having the Aussies running the show may be a serious error. Suppose the militias, with perhaps rogue elements of the Army, resist the UN force? Might the nation fly to arms etc? I have the impression from remarks made before Habibie issued his "invitation", that Indonesia could kick Australia's ass, at least for as long as the US stayed out. What about Indonesian air power?

723. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/15/1999 12:43:45 PM

cm:
Let's hope it doesn't come to that. Remember, the UN force will be here at the invitation of Indonesia, and will supposedly be working with the Indonesian military.

But, to answer your question, anyway: Australia's military is better equipped and far better disciplined, but the Indonesian military has the numbers and would be on its home turf. Indonesian air power is probably no match for any western nation's.

724. vonKreedon - 9/15/1999 2:02:17 PM

According to the CIA Australia has a much smaller armed forces, or at least potential armed forces, but spends more than twice as much on them as Indonesia does. This would tend to equate in much better Australian capability to acheive overwhelming force at the point of conflict, say Timor, due to better weapons systems, training, and mobility. If the US brings a carrier battle group to the area then total conventional air/ground/sea superiority could be acheived over the entire island of Timor. However, as we know, it is the unconventional war that causes fits for western style militaries, so let's hope that Indonesia is willing to let East Timor go now that other potential secessionist provinces have seen how bad things could get for them if they attempt to break away.

Any way, here are some relevant CIA facts:

Australia:
Military manpower—fit for military service:
males: 4,206,104 (1998 est.)

Military expenditures—dollar figure: $8.2 billion (FY97/98)

++++++++++++++++++++++

Indonesia:
Military manpower—fit for military service:
males: 35,148,486 (1998 est.)

Military expenditures—dollar figure: $3.3 billion (FY97/98)

725. robertjayb - 9/15/1999 7:21:39 PM

East Timor Peacekeepers


Filed at 5:42 p.m. EDT


By The Associated Press


A list of some of the countries that have offered to contribute to a U.N.-mandated international peacekeeping force for East Timor:

AUSTRALIA: 4,500 troops, plus a supply ship and a troop-carrying catamaran.

BRAZIL: Fifty army police.

PORTUGAL: 1,000 troops, two frigates, a C-130 transport plane and four helicopters.

NEW ZEALAND: 700 troops, a frigate, a supply ship and aircraft will also be available.

THAILAND: 700 troops and 30 military medics and relief workers.

PHILIPPINES: 600-1,200 troops, mainly engineering, medical and dental units.

CANADA: 600 troops.

FRANCE: 500 troops, a frigate carrying humanitarian supplies, three tactical cargo planes, a vessel carrying helicopters and a portable surgical unit.

SOUTH KOREA: 400 troops.

UNITED STATES: Several hundred troops may be involved, mostly pilots to transport troops from other nations and help with logistics, communications and intelligence.

BRITAIN: 270 troops and a naval ship.

ITALY: 200 to 250 troops, plus logistical support.

SINGAPORE: 21 medical personnel and possible logistical support.

SWEDEN: 10 Swedish civilian police officers are in Australia waiting to go to East Timor, plus $1.2 million.

FINLAND: $1 million in aid.

CHINA, RUSSIA, MALAYSIA, FIJI, BANGLADESH, PAKISTAN and ARGENTINA: All have offered to help the peacekeepers, though no specific commitments have been made.

726. MrSocko - 9/15/1999 8:46:24 PM

Irving, re #711

Indonesians cannot accept Australians burning the Indonesian flag, refusing to serve Indonesian airplanes or ships in Australia, and threatening a military attack. They see these things as a lack of respect for Indonesia as a nation...

Well, very few Australians go around burning the Indonesian flag, so I don't think that's a terribly important issue in the overall scheme of things.

The decision of certain unions not to service Indonesian carriers is perfectly their right, and indeed quite proper in the circumstances. Irrespective of who is running Indonesia, it sends a commercial message to the country's nearest neighbor about its behavior.


when in fact they actually show the ignorance of the average Australian toward what is going on in Indonesia.


Most Australians who are interested can understand the situation in East Timor. It's not that complicated.

The situation in East Timor is not the fault of Indonesia as a nation, and is not the fault of the Indonesian government.


I don't believe that this distinction is lost on the average Australian, or indeed anybody who has followed recent events.

727. MrSocko - 9/15/1999 8:58:29 PM

re 711:

It all comes down to the all-important Asian concept of "face." Australia has caused the Indonesian nation to lose face, and people here feel this was unjustified.

Really? Wouldn't it be much, much more accurate to say that the TNI has caused Indonesia to lose face? The Australians did not start the mess in Timor, nor did they wish for its barbaric outcome. In the losing face stakes, surely Indonesia has dealt its own hand.

The average Indonesian is just as sick about what has happened in East Timor as the average westerner.

This may be true. But it is something that the average westerner doesn't see, as much so as many did not understand the lack of support among many Serbians for their government's antics in the Balkans. Indeed, the Serbian-Indonesian comparison seems evermore apposite, with Java seemingly hellbent on becoming some kind of equitorial Belgrade.

It is unfortunate that Australia is insisting on leading and participating in the upcoming mission. They will get little cooperation from Indonesians...

Well, given its legitimate security concerns, it would be extremely strange if Australia didn't participate in the mission to aid the newly independent Timor -- a mission that ought to have been handled by Indonesia, and which Indonesia has shown itself singularly incapable of doing.

And really, are we to believe that Indonesia would be somehow more receptive to, say, a peacekeeping force headed by the Malaysians or Singaporeans?!? Please!

728. ScottLoar - 9/15/1999 9:14:09 PM

Socko, all of your comments are well considered and, I believe, quite true save the last. Australia's security concerns will or will not be addressed in this instance whether or not Australian troops participate. In fact, their participation is more a matter of convenience and propinquity than that other nations suggest Australia has some "right" to lead by reason of paramount security concerns. And, yes, Indonesians would definitely be more receptive to a security force that comprised a preponderance of Asian faces (some Indonesian minister or other said so), or even by countries remote from Indonesian concerns, say Sweden or Poland.

729. ScottLoar - 9/15/1999 9:20:41 PM

In this instance I suggest that the thing to do is the hardest thing to do, that is, assemble a police force and deploy them as fast as transport and logistical support allow with a minimum of public comment. Or, if comment is demanded, then let it be innocuous. The longer this deployment drags on the worse for relieving the situation.

730. marjoribanks - 9/15/1999 10:52:20 PM

From the Independent, confirmation of the Snodgrass scoop"

"BEFORE THE eyes of the world, Indonesian police yesterday fired on a group of 40 peace protesters in a central shopping area of Jakarta, just across from the offices of the United Nations, sending them stampeding for cover into a McDonald's and a Hard Rock Cafe. One man was wounded.

The incident came within hours of the UN Security Council deciding to send troops to East Timor. Earlier, a smaller group of militia sympathisers protesting against East Timor's independence blocked access to the British embassy, demanding the ejection of Xanana Gusmao, the independence leader, who has taken refuge there.

The capital simmered with tension before the first landing, since the Second World War, of foreign troops on what Indonesians consider their territory. The atmosphere is also being fed by growing intrigue over the likely fate of President B J Habibie, weakened by the East Timor debacle, who faces re-election when parliament reconvenes next month.

While the police responded to the peace protest with disproportionate violence, officers at the British embassy looked on indifferently as the anti-independence activists, some in militia T-shirts, climbed its perimeter walls and placed Indonesian flags in the barbed wire on top.

Each day sees small bursts of street agitation around the capital, although so far they have come nowhere near matching the demonstrations in May last year, which saw hundreds killed and President Suharto forced from office. But the present unrest could multiply and spawn fresh bloodshed. More student protests are expected today.

The weakness of Mr Habibie is fuelling tension in Jakarta. East Timor aside, he has been implicated this week in a scandal involving a multi- million kick-back allegedly paid by Bank Bali to his re-election fund in return for government support in clearing its debt.

731. marjoribanks - 9/15/1999 10:52:50 PM

"Students are also angry about a proposed security law that would shield the military from prosecution for human- rights violations.

There are reports suggesting that General Wiranto, the armed-forces chief, who has been blamed for the East Timor carnage by much of the outside world, may be preparing to stand down from the military. Somewhat incredibly - at least to those watching this political theatre from afar - he may mean to present himself as the ruling Golkar party's presidential nominee instead of Mr Habibie.

Admiral Widodo, who would succeed General Wiranto as head of the military, proposed postponing the coming parliamentary session, ostensibly to allow tension to abate.

But that could exacerbate the crisis. It would not only plunge the presidential election into doubt but also delay a vote that is required to formalise the secession of East Timor.

For an hour yesterday the anti-independence protesters chanted outside the British embassy, demanding that Mr Gusmao should go to East Timor or leave Indonesia altogether.

No one recognised the ambassador, Robin Christopher, who arrived in the midst of the protest at the embassy and had to squeeze through the crowd to get inside.

One of the protesters, Fernando Vieira Soares, said Mr Gusmao was himself responsible for "destroying the people of East Timor". Asked what fate would await the rebel leader if he went to East Timor, Mr Soares replied, with blank matter-of-factness: "We will kill him."

Outside the nearby Hotel Indonesia, police arrested the respected Indonesian writer and journalist Goenawan Muhamad, who led some 100 protesters demonstrating against military repression.

That, and the brutality of the police tactics outside the UN building, seemed almost designed to provoke still more street anger."

732. marjoribanks - 9/15/1999 11:13:58 PM

Hokay folks,

You will note that there is a neat little Links list on the column on the right. I intend on adding some broader resources to it as we go along, but for now let's stick to our favorite newspapers, the ones wecheck daily.

It is my intention to make this the place to come and browse your favorite newspapers and discuss the contents. So, rather than go to the newspapers first (as I normally do) and then check the mote, you can do it all from here.

I am only adding a few good ones to begin with. And everyone gets to pick their favorite newspaper (from anywhere in the world) and I will link it up. Foreign language papers are welcome.

So give me your favorites.

(Rick, what's that Malaysian one?)

733. RickNelson - 9/16/1999 7:16:01 AM

http://thestar.com.my/

Marj, it's The Star Online.

734. cmboyce - 9/16/1999 9:33:06 AM

Here is a very grim look at rural East Timor, over the last 20 years of what the author seems quite reasonably to call "genocide".

735. cmboyce - 9/16/1999 9:37:09 AM

In the "New Statesman" citation in Marj's 730, above, the idea of Wiranto placing himself on the ballot of the parliament's presidential election is worrying. Irv, do your sources also speculate on this?

736. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/16/1999 9:38:09 AM

robert:
Those numbers differ greatly from the ones I've seen in three different sources here, which keep referring to five nations.

Socko:
Well, very few Australians go around burning the Indonesian flag, so I don't think that's a terribly important issue in the overall scheme of things.

Well, many Indonesians disagree with that. Flag-burning is a rather serious insult here. I would imagine the cultural values don't translate.

The decision of certain unions not to service Indonesian carriers is perfectly their right, and indeed quite proper in the circumstances. Irrespective of who is running Indonesia, it sends a commercial message to the country's nearest neighbor about its behavior.

Well, that's just the point. A nation doesn't have behavior. It also shows a deep misunderstanding of what is happening in Indonesia. These Australians aren't scoring any points with the military, who couldn't care less. They are, however, alienating and offending the average Indonesian -- people who agree with them about the issues involved.

Most Australians who are interested can understand the situation in East Timor. It's not that complicated.

Well then why are they engaging in the behaviors I mentioned? It indicates they think they have a beef with the Indonesian people or the Indonesian nation, and nothing could be further from the truth.

737. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/16/1999 9:40:15 AM

Really? Wouldn't it be much, much more accurate to say that the TNI has caused Indonesia to lose face? The Australians did not start the mess in Timor, nor did they wish for its barbaric outcome. In the losing face stakes, surely Indonesia has dealt its own hand.

I don't think you understand the concept of face. The fact is, the Indonesian reaction to Australia right now is a very strong one, and a very dangerous one, in view of the upcoming peacekeeping mission. Most Indonesians welcome the UN forces, and realize the military will never get things under control on its own (if it ever wanted to in the first place), while at the same time feeling very upset at Australia.

...Java seemingly hellbent on becoming some kind of equitorial [sic] Belgrade.

I see you're still confusing the military with the government, a distinction you just said is not lost on "anyone who has followed recent events." For the record, Habibie and the government were the ones who held the referendum, and frantically tried to get the military to take control of the situation when it became apparent that things were going bad. They were also the ones who insisted, against the military's wishes, for international peacekeepers. I really don't see any parallel with Serbia there.

And really, are we to believe that Indonesia would be somehow more receptive to, say, a peacekeeping force headed by the Malaysians or Singaporeans?!? Please!

I don't know why the "please!" there. That's exactly what Indonesia would prefer, and exactly what would be more likely to succeed.

738. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/16/1999 9:43:07 AM

Marj:
From the Independent, confirmation of the Snodgrass scoop"

No, that's a separate story, which took place a day later than my scoop, in a different city. Perhaps news only matters if it happens in Jakarta.

Interestingly, one of the wounded protestors in Jakarta yesterday was the father of one of the students killed in last November's Jakarta protests.

Word here is that the protest at the British Embassy was organized by the military. The fact that the military stood by and watched (as they did in last year's riots and in East Timor last week) is pretty good confirmation this is true. Meanwhile, 100 protestors were arrested for protesting military repression only 300 yards away from the British Embassy.

cm (735):
Yes. I talked about the speculation about Wiranto's aspirations in this thread a couple of days ago. His name has been bandied about since well before the elections.

Realistically, I think he's even less popular than Habibie, and he doesn't have a chance of being chosen president.

739. DanDillon - 9/16/1999 9:45:39 AM

marj,

It seems only just to add the IHT to your list.

740. cmboyce - 9/16/1999 9:50:48 AM

Irv, is Wiranto unelectable even with the military's mandated parliamentary seats? Is Megawati's ascendency a done thing, then?

741. shr fang tian - 9/16/1999 9:56:53 AM

Marj, do you *really* believe that the military ever planned on "getting things under control", or that the government was ever mistaken on that count?

From everything i've read so far, it seems to be a pretty commonly acknowledged fact that all of the violence in Timor leads directly back to the military.

In which case -- and i'd like to emphasize this -- the government and the military are working in concert.

Habibie is Suharto's handpicked successor. Suharto was a military dictator. Ergo -- the government and the military, hand in hand, with nary a thought of ever "controlling" the situation in Timor in any fashion other than that by which it has been "controlled".

742. stostosto - 9/16/1999 9:58:59 AM

Irv

Your analysis is extremely illuminating. The Aussies alienate the Indonesians (I don't know why, really - but that's just me. Have Oz and Indonesia ever been at war?). I see a parallel in the Serbs wanting the Russians' participation in the K-FOR in Kosovo. Like: These guys are basically friendly to us, not hostile. They will protect our people as well as their people. We trust them to better do this. Their involvement wouldn't be subject to suspicions of serving purposes of power and geopolitics.

But it makes me wonder: What do the Singaporeans and Malaysians do? Are they completely passive here? I haven't heard or seen anything to indicate otherwise. And, if so, why is that? What about Filipinos, by the way? Or Thais?

Does it all boil down to military capacity? If so, I think we should do what has always worked well for us Europeans: Call on the Americans. They have bases on the Filippines, right?

I just thought of an intriguing option: The Japanese. They have a huge military force. And it would be nice to have them participate in the world on the side of good. (Oops. There was something about Japan and Indonesia in the WWII, wasn't there...?)

743. stostosto - 9/16/1999 9:59:56 AM

Toy picking.

744. shr fang tian - 9/16/1999 10:00:07 AM

Whups. That shooda been addressed to "irving".

745. shr fang tian - 9/16/1999 10:01:20 AM

How th' hell does one "subscribe" to a thread here?

746. stostosto - 9/16/1999 10:07:13 AM

shr fang tian:

You can't subscribe to a thread, TT fashion, here. You can address this question of why not to Alistairconnor in the New Thread and Feature Suggestion thread or in the Tecnical Issues thread.

And welcome here to you.

How do you pronounce 'shr'?

747. marjoribanks - 9/16/1999 10:11:33 AM

Greetings all,

International note from lovely sunny NYC, my rood has sprung a delightful leak. Not a problem since we are only in a Hurricane watch and it has been pouring for hours. Hence, my participation here will be limited.

Shr Fang Tian,

Welcome, welcome. Our first vistor from the great beyond (TT). You have already noted that Irving is the Indonesia expert here, he resides in Bali and is the finest on-line source of breaking news and analysis in that country. I'm sure he'll address your question/comment shortly.

Stick around and you'll like this place a lot I'm sure. And tell your friends.

Now, please tell me how you found this place. Was it the link placed in Eclectic etc etc?

748. shr fang tian - 9/16/1999 10:12:43 AM

like it looks.

it's the name i use in TT, as well. i heard that this was started by a bunch of people involved in a "fray" over at TT.

That wouldn't be Jurgen and Paige and OO and Bob and Mentat and crew, would it?

Or was there another "fray" over there, eventually?

749. shr fang tian - 9/16/1999 10:13:42 AM

And how do i check for new messages? i've clicked on "check for dust" a few times, but then it flashes that i'm gonna post some message about "toys" or something...it's quite confusing.

750. shr fang tian - 9/16/1999 10:13:49 AM

And how do i check for new messages? i've clicked on "check for dust" a few times, but then it flashes that i'm gonna post some message about "toys" or something...it's quite confusing.

751. shr fang tian - 9/16/1999 10:14:25 AM

Whups -- can't self-delete here, either?

752. stostosto - 9/16/1999 10:16:00 AM

marj

"sanctum" according to Webster's:
1 : a sacred place
2 : a place where one is free from intrusion

I think "The International Scene" would better name for this thread.

Or, perhaps, International Outlook.

Or, International Perspective.

I think some of the other threads are more "sacred" and "free from intrusion". And if that is not so, I think it unfortunate. The name of the thread ought to signal openness, not sanctity.

In all Scandinavian earnesty.

753. shr fang tian - 9/16/1999 10:17:58 AM

I picked out the address from RosettStone's tagline in TT.

And thank you all for the kind welcomes --

754. marjoribanks - 9/16/1999 10:18:34 AM

I'll tell you what I do, either go back to home or use the >> or >I toggles at the end of the post columns.

You cannot subscribe to a thread, but there are few enough here in the first place.

No, the Fray referred to here is the discussion area that was formerly part of Slate.

-------------------

You "heard" this was going on? From whom? I'm prying I hope. I'm just curious as to the provenance of our first International "newbie."' And I greet you with garlands and ritual sacrifice. In your name I am currently sacrificing an English muffin.

755. stostosto - 9/16/1999 10:19:24 AM

shr

Is your name Chinese? Are you?

756. marjoribanks - 9/16/1999 10:19:55 AM

I'm NOT prying, I hope.

757. shr fang tian - 9/16/1999 10:24:11 AM

not at all.

Yes, my name is Chinese. No, i am not -- well, not exactly. i've lived in Taiwan for the last seven years. i teach English over here, and i use this name with all my Chinese friends; i.e. -- this is "my Chinese name". That can be sort of an issue over in TT, but i guess it's not such a big deal over here, what with Ethiopianeunuch, et al.

758. marjoribanks - 9/16/1999 10:24:22 AM

Sto, dear sto, the name has acquired more sheen over the past two days. And our old place was so dubbed by noe other than the whiz/brat named Pseuder. I will change it eventually, I suppose. Right now it deserves the billing.

You have not commented on my most recent lesson in the ongoing "tutorial on Goan politics for the already-expert stostosto." I'd appreciate your thoughts. Especially since I now read the Goan papers with the thought "will this be illuminating/educative for stostosto?"

759. stostosto - 9/16/1999 10:26:56 AM

Well, I am. (Sorry).

To avoid making that a one-sided exchange, I can reveal myself to be Danish. My Mote name is of insignificant significance. My real life name is Søren Steen Olsen. Those are no secrets. But I have absolutely no problem with anyone who do have such preferences of privacy. I am just asking out of pure curiosity.

It would be great to have a Chinese here. There are much too few on the Internet.

(Er, on the other hand -- if you are not Chinese, it is equally OK. I think I'll stop here before I get totally ridiculous...)

760. marjoribanks - 9/16/1999 10:26:58 AM

Shr,

There are at least two other people who are part of this group who have lived in Taiwan. ScottLoar and the person you know as Ren Jie oo. The latter is boycotting us right now for an obscure reason, but I hope he will return at the soonest.

I'd like to start a China sub-thread. You may wish to view the first such sub-thread, PelleNilsson's excellent Maputo Diary, linked from the right-hand column.

761. marjoribanks - 9/16/1999 10:30:08 AM

Shr,

If you wish to contribute a Taiwan diary, even for just a week, we would all be most grateful.

762. shr fang tian - 9/16/1999 10:32:24 AM

i meant to add -- he'll proabably be back soon enough.

763. stostosto - 9/16/1999 10:33:06 AM

shr

You answered before I could compose and post my silly elaborations. Thanks. I very much look forward to your contributions here.

marj

I saw your Goan posts but I was in such a hurry at the time, so I didn't really have the time to absorb them as they deserve to be. I hope I can make good on that later tonight. And, please, please, by all means, keep having me in mind when you read Goan papers.

It's a treat to hear from another Goa expert. There are so damn few of us left.

764. marjoribanks - 9/16/1999 10:37:04 AM

Stostosto,

Bless you. You give me the half-excuse to continue on my posted ruminations on Goa, Goans, Goan Affairs and other such riveting topics.

765. stostosto - 9/16/1999 10:38:39 AM

Marj:

the name has acquired more sheen over the past two days

"Sheen"? In what sense?

Main Entry: 3sheen
Function: noun
Date: 1602
1 a : a bright or shining condition : BRIGHTNESS b : a subdued glitter approaching but short of optical reflection c : a lustrous surface imparted to textiles through finishing processes or use of shiny yarns
2 : a textile exhibiting notable sheen
- sheeny /'shE-nE/ adjective

766. shr fang tian - 9/16/1999 10:38:56 AM

well -- thank you for the offer, but i'm getting busier at the moment.
it's the start of the school year, see -- so many things for a teacher to do...

I must go now, but i do promise to stop in again some time soon. Good luck --

SFT.

767. marjoribanks - 9/16/1999 10:44:44 AM

Sto,

Sheen as in luster, attractive hue.

Let's ask our first guinea pig. Shr, how do you like the name?

768. marjoribanks - 9/16/1999 10:46:02 AM

Shr,

Thank you for visiting. Please tell your friends.

BTW, is there a newspaper you'd like to add to our links?

769. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/16/1999 10:48:17 AM

cm (740):
is Wiranto unelectable even with the military's mandated parliamentary seats?

The Military gets 38 seats out of 700. You do the math. He doesn't have a prayer, unless he tries a military coup, which doesn't look like much of a possibility right now.

Is Megawati's ascendency a done thing, then?

It's looking more and more like it these days. Gus Dur tried an end run last month and fell short. Wiranto has yet to make his move, but looks unlikely. And Habibie's goose is fully gooked.

shr fang tian:
First of all, a very hearty welcome to these parts. I hope you'll stick around, despite the technical differences from TT. Perhaps when we get bigger, subscriptions will be necessary. For now, they really aren't needed. Self-deletions might be a nice feature, and our resident tech czar is considering them.

do you *really* believe that the military ever planned on "getting things under control", or that the government was ever mistaken on that count?

No to the first question, and yes to the second. I think there's a good chance the military had a carefully planned agenda to raze East Timor in case of a pro-independence vote. Time will tell, but many things are pointing in that direction. Wiranto vehemently denies any involvement. I'm not so sure.

[continued]

770. Hashke - 9/16/1999 10:48:34 AM

sto:

sanctum n. a perfectly healthy lower orifice.

771. Hashke - 9/16/1999 10:49:05 AM

sto:

sanctum n. a perfectly healthy lower orifice.

772. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/16/1999 10:49:56 AM

Otoh, Habibie did go into the referendum in good faith and thought he had things under control. He was sure wrong, but he's always been out of touch, especially with the military.

From everything i've read so far, it seems to be a pretty commonly acknowledged fact that all of the violence in Timor leads directly back to the military.

In one way or another, yes, that's true.

In which case -- and i'd like to emphasize this -- the government and the military are working in concert.

I don't see how you make that jump. That is where your error is. I am quite convinced that Habibie and the non-military parts of his government (even the moron Foreign Minister Ali Alatas) had no inkling of what the military was up to until it was too late, or at least thought they could control things.

Habibie is Suharto's handpicked successor. Suharto was a military dictator. Ergo -- the government and the military, hand in hand, with nary a thought of ever "controlling" the situation in Timor in any fashion other than that by which it has been "controlled".

Habibie was never Suharto's hand-picked successor. Habibie was han-picked by Suharto to be his vice-president because Suharto felt he was a non-threatening non-military technocrat he could count on to gather support in Islamic circles. Obviously, Suharto didn't foresee the events of May, 1998 and Habibie was as suprised (and unready) as anyone to be thrown into the spotlight.

From the very start, Wiranto and the military made it clear that they did not respect Habibie. I doubt they could give their allegiance to a non-military leader.

[continued]

773. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/16/1999 10:52:55 AM

So, your logic breaks down. In fact, Habibie and the government felt they could control things, and were dismayed to discover otherwise. That's when Habibie started pushing for UN troops. At first he was overruled by Wiranto, who announced martial law in East Timor. But within a week, even Wiranto had to admit there were no other options.

774. marjoribanks - 9/16/1999 10:53:42 AM

Pak Hashke,

I've never heard that no doubt obscure meaning. In the future, if you insinuate in such a manner in the Sanctum, I will be forced to watch you do so, helplessly.

775. ScottLoar - 9/16/1999 10:58:07 AM

I would emphasize that it is strictly Irv's opinion, however informed and experienced he may be, that the Indonesian military intended to "raze East Timor to the ground" before independence.

There is a chronic tendency in these comments about East Timor to facilely separate parties into The Good and The Bad.

776. cmboyce - 9/16/1999 10:58:39 AM

Well, Marj, he might be right. Sanctums are holey, after all.

777. stostosto - 9/16/1999 11:00:15 AM

marj:
That's an intimidating threat.

778. ScottLoar - 9/16/1999 11:00:50 AM

Again, we are not talking about some amorphous entities called "Indonesia" or "the military", as if such generalities can explain the situation.

779. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/16/1999 11:02:19 AM

sto3:
The Aussies alienate the Indonesians (I don't know why, really - but that's just me. Have Oz and Indonesia ever been at war?

I've gone over the reasons at some length in this thread. No, the two countries have never been at war. They have maintained generally friendly relations, but these have been tested at times, as is natural when you have a nation of 200 million people next to a nation of 18 million, with vast differences in wealth and culture.

But it makes me wonder: What do the Singaporeans and Malaysians do? Are they completely passive here? I haven't heard or seen anything to indicate otherwise. And, if so, why is that? What about Filipinos, by the way? Or Thais?

I'm not sure exactly what you mean. The reason Indonesia would prefer Asian peacekeepers is probably due to a feeling that western nations are a bit racist. I, personally, feel there is some basis to this feeling.

Call on the Americans. They have bases on the Filippines [sic], right?

Wrong. The US closed their bases in the Philippines about 8 years ago.

There was something about Japan and Indonesia in the WWII, wasn't there...?

Yes, and the Indonesians haven't forgotten. Scratch them off the list.

780. marjoribanks - 9/16/1999 11:05:03 AM

Loar,

Please post your thesis completely, in some depth.

781. Hashke - 9/16/1999 11:11:12 AM

Thanks Pak marj. My gosh, did you actually see that as it whizzed by?

782. stostosto - 9/16/1999 11:11:27 AM

Irv
I don't know why you don't know what I mean. I am wondering what those Asians, whom the Indonesians would prefer as peace keepers, are doing themselves? Why aren't they jumping in and offering themselves as such? Why are they completely passive, leaving everything to the Australians and Westerners? (Or, if that is not the case, why have information to the contrary not reached me?)

783. marjoribanks - 9/16/1999 11:14:10 AM

Pak Haske,

I pay particular attention to the Sanctum.

Now, why haven't you and stostosto given me your newspaper choices? Irv, if you have another, or several others, please submit them if you think they would be good additions to the Link list.

784. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/16/1999 11:14:14 AM

ScottLoar:
I would emphasize that it is strictly Irv's opinion, however informed and experienced he may be, that the Indonesian military intended to "raze East Timor to the ground" before independence.

Not really. There has been more than a little evidence that things were carefully planned beforehand, from the arming of the militias to the preparation of refugee camps in Western Timor before the vote. This has been confirmed by refugees, members of the military, and the militias in recent press reports. I think it goes beyond my opinion, and can be classified as a pretty good possibility, with strong supporting evidence. I don't, however, regard it as conclusively proven.

There is a chronic tendency in these comments about East Timor to facilely separate parties into The Good and The Bad.

I'm usually the last person to paint things as black and white, as I'm sure you're aware. But it's pretty hard not too when you have one group killing and burning, and another group being killed, being deported and hiding out in the mountains, but not fighting back.

On the other hand, I strongly disagree with those who attribute the atrocities in East Timor to "Indonesia."

Again, we are not talking about some amorphous entities called "Indonesia" or "the military", as if such generalities can explain the situation.

Very true. I've already explained at some length why blaming "Indonesia" is wrong. It's also important to realize that the Indonesian military is by no means unified, which is why it is entirely conceivable that the actions in East Timor were carefully planned beforehand, but that Wiranto and the leadership in Jakarta may have had no knowledge of it.

785. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/16/1999 11:16:47 AM

sto:
The Asian nations have volunteered their services. Of the five nations confirmed so far, four (South Korea, The Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei) are Asian. Malaysia has been appointed Australia's "deputy" for the operation.

786. Hashke - 9/16/1999 11:16:57 AM

Pak marj:

I avoid newsprint. It get all over my hands.

787. Hashke - 9/16/1999 11:17:13 AM

Pak marj:

I avoid newsprint. It gets all over my hands.

788. Hashke - 9/16/1999 11:18:23 AM

Where is that double posting coming from?

Where is that double posting coming from?

789. marjoribanks - 9/16/1999 11:20:56 AM

Sto,

At the same time as they deplore the Indonesian actions in Timor, I cannot think of another large Asian country keen on sending troops at this initial stage, where there could well be some trouble, and where there is no point in antagonistic relations.

In fact, when the UN acts in cases like these they should definitely use troops from a country very removed from the situation. UN troops in this matter should be Scandis, Russians, Argentinians, Mexicans, Canadians, whatever. Honestly, by sending Australians, especially as "leaders" of the mission, the UN is making a mistake. It is a flaw in the UN peacekeeping mechanism, a flaw that is often exploited by the USA.

790. ScottLoar - 9/16/1999 11:22:33 AM

Irving, do not take my criticisms to heart as, in truth, they are not wholly directed to you.

791. ScottLoar - 9/16/1999 11:23:58 AM

As I had explained, Australians will be sent in to police East Timor by reason of convenience and propinquity.

792. cmboyce - 9/16/1999 11:25:55 AM

Exploited by the USA? You mean to become that leader itself (meaning the US military and/or government, as distinct from us palookas without the money to meaningfully vote)? How does the US benefit from Australia's assuming the helm here (which, I agree, is mighty damn dumb, at best)?

793. Hashke - 9/16/1999 11:26:23 AM

Irv,

I have a friend who holds that the US government is always implicated abroad in unsavory political plots in one way or another to bolster its imperial stance worldwide. Any comments with regard to our involvement in Indonesian affairs?

794. cmboyce - 9/16/1999 11:26:43 AM

792 in re 789

795. ScottLoar - 9/16/1999 11:26:51 AM

Quite frankly, Asian countries don't want to get involved in this mess by sending a force at their expense to resolve a local problem for which they will receive no practicable advantage but most likely to the detriment of relations with Indonesia. You see, some Western countries are animated to do so for humanitarian concerns, which concerns are obviously secondary in the foreign policy decisions of Indonesia's immediate neighbors.

796. marjoribanks - 9/16/1999 11:26:58 AM

Sorry Irv.

I agree it is sloppy to refer to the actions by the Army and Army-backed militias as the "Indonesian" actions. Though the same thing is done with most other similar situations in most other countries, I agree that it lowers the quality of debate and I will stop now.

797. stostosto - 9/16/1999 11:29:36 AM

marj

I second that. It's a cut-out task for the Argentinians. Why are they so silent about it?

(No, really).

798. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/16/1999 11:29:56 AM

Marj:
Check out these links, and use any you deem appropriate. The first has always been a favorite of mine. The second is from the same media group as The Jakarta Post. Some links may be dated, as I haven't checked them all recently.

Window on Indonesia

Interactive News on Indonesia from Tempo

Indonesia Daily News On-line

Recent News on Indonesia (from e-mail and press reports in English)

One problem with your proposal in Message 789 is that Indonesia is opposed to westerners serving on the forces, for racial reasons. There have been a few incidents recently which indicate many Indonesians consider the UN a western-dominated organization. To avoid unfortunate incidents, the Indonesian government initially proposed that peacekeeping forces be made up of Asians and Africans (and, for some bizarre reason, New Zealanders). Of course, the Indonesians later withdrew all conditions.

799. marjoribanks - 9/16/1999 11:32:45 AM

Loar

I agree with most of 795. But the Portuguese government is not offering troops and supplies out of strict humanitarian concern, and neither is the Australian government. Or the UK government, for that matter. Political expediency is a big part of it. The UH should have been much more careful with the messages they are sending and have sent WRT E. Timor. Frankly, Im thinking this is possibly the biggest, most preventable, cock-up in UN history. Which is saying something.

800. stostosto - 9/16/1999 11:34:32 AM

Irv,

I wasn't aware those countries had offered their assistance. I think it's great. Now, how problematic can it really be, in your opinion, that this amalgam of UN troops is formally led by Australians? I mean, there is the compelling propinquity argument.

801. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/16/1999 11:35:33 AM

Hashke:
Fortunately (for me, at least, living here), the USA's non-action has meant that Americans have not been targeted and the US has not been criticized. So, to answer your question, the USA has not been implicated in any political plots here this time around (so far).

802. marjoribanks - 9/16/1999 11:36:06 AM

Irv,

I'd have been much happier with a UN force made up of Africans, some Asians and good old NZ.

Boyce,

It was not the US which exploited the flaw in the Security Council workings, this time.

803. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/16/1999 11:39:00 AM

sto:
The "compelling propinquity argument" means nothing to Indonesians, who are upset with Australia right now.

I just hope that Australia's involvement doesn't lead to incidents, since it's clear that this issue has already been resolved, and Australia will be leading the forces.

804. Hashke - 9/16/1999 11:44:20 AM

Thanks Irv!

Very good cm!

805. stostosto - 9/16/1999 11:45:44 AM

I am sorry, Irv.

I haven't been following your reportage - or any other's - very closely. What did the Ozzies do to upset the Indonesians so much? Was it the flag burners? The port strikers? That wasn't the Oz government's doing... I realize that may be lost on Indonesians. On the other hand, they seem capable of distinguishing between their own government, the military, and themselves.

806. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/16/1999 11:49:21 AM

sto:
Absolutely. The Indonesians are just as guilty of over-generalizing as anyone, although the Aussie government did do a bit of heavy-handed saber-rattling before the UN forces were accepted.

I think for both sides that biblical thing about casting out the mote, etc. (appropriate, huh?) fits quite well here.

807. verdeazul - 9/16/1999 1:33:19 PM

Irv,
I would like to send you a
graphic I made but don't
have a current e-mail
address for you. Its not too
large but IS interesting. You
should have my address. Let
me know.

azulio~

808. vonKreedon - 9/16/1999 3:27:31 PM

All these bombings in Russia, I keep thinking of the bombings in the movie Brazil.

809. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/16/1999 8:00:17 PM

I mentioned above that there is mounting evidence for the position that the killings in East Timor were planned beforehand. Here is what appears to be some chilling hard evidence, published in the repsected journal The Australian Financial Review:

Killings were 'planned in February'

810. marjoribanks - 9/16/1999 9:18:13 PM

Startling information, Irv. Thanks.

i wonder if you have some more comments about the Aussie "leadership" of the proposed UN force, especially in light of the following excerpt of The Jakarta Post:

"JAKARTA (JP): Indonesia canceled on Wednesday a landmark 1995 agreement with Australia on security cooperation as the row between the two countries over East Timor reached new highs.

"We deeply regret Australia's attitude, which has undermined bilateral relations as indicated by its decision to stop military cooperation and assistance, and to review the security cooperation arrangements," Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs and acting foreign minister Feisal Tanjung said in a media briefing.

"The Republic of Indonesia has noted that the attitude and the actions of Australia with regard to East Timor does not help keep the bilateral relationship based on the mutual respect of sovereignty, national integrity and the principle of not interfering in each other's affairs," Feisal said. Feisal said Australia's attitude was no longer consistent with the letter and the spirit of the 1995 agreement.

The security pact stipulates that Indonesia and Australia will consult about matters affecting their common security and develop cooperation on security matters. "

811. alistairconnor - 9/16/1999 9:49:50 PM

Interesting, that thing on Aus/Indonesian military co-operation. Last night I saw an Australian current-affairs program about East Timor, where the military relationship was gone into at some length. It turns out that until very recently indeed, the Australian army (in particular the Special Services) have been conducting training and exercises in jungle warfare, in Indonesia, with the Indonesian army (and in particular, that special services outfit that has been discussed here).

And on at least one occasion, the training involved Fretilin personnel, who had been released from solitary confinement in an Indonesian military prison in exchange for agreement to train Indonesian forces in Fretilin guerilla tactics.

This programme was made, and screened in Australia, before the referendum.

812. MrSocko - 9/16/1999 10:21:54 PM

Is this working?

813. MrSocko - 9/16/1999 10:23:24 PM

Irving, re #736 & 737

Flag-burning is a rather serious insult here. I would imagine the cultural values don't translate.

No, the cultural values do translate; flag-burning is serious anywhere. My point is only that its incidence in Australia has been pretty isolated. Surely Indonesians can understand that a few incidents don't say anything about the entire Australian people or their government.

I don't think you understand the concept of face.

Of course I do. There just isn't anything distinctly Asian about the concept, that's all. Westerners, Asians, Africans, whoever -- nobody enjoys being made to look a putz. It's silly to say, as the Asians often do, that only one group of people know what it means to lose face.

814. MrSocko - 9/16/1999 10:23:48 PM

The fact is, the Indonesian reaction to Australia right now is a very strong one, and a very dangerous one... Most Indonesians welcome the UN forces, and realize the military will never get things under control on its own ... while at the same time feeling very upset at Australia.

Well, they really ought to do some hard thinking here. For years Australia has kow-towed to Jakarta, even to the point of being the only nation to recognize the annexation of Timor. Now faced with a Jakarta-orchestrated disaster, the Australians offer a few belated criticisms of its erstwhile chum -- and the Indoensians go ape-shit. What gives?

I see you're still confusing the military with the government.

Well, to some extent the two must be confused: a government without a military is a contradiction in terms.

I really don't see any parallel with Serbia there.

Well, these days East Timor is starting to look a lot like the old Kosovo...

That's exactly what Indonesia would prefer [Asian-led peacekeepers] and exactly what would be more likely to succeed.

Indonesia would prefer, say, the ethnically Chinese Singaporeans leading a peacekeeping mission?!? Really!?!

815. floater - 9/16/1999 11:16:51 PM

Has anyone else read this month's Vanity Fair? I don't want to ruin it for anyone, but there's a great story on both the atrocities in Serbia and the atrocities committed by Pope Pius XII (?) during WWII.

816. CalGal - 9/16/1999 11:31:22 PM

Everyone please think good thoughts.

Although I'm sure everything will be fine.

817. floater - 9/16/1999 11:54:25 PM

Ohmygoodness CalGal. What is going on in the world today? Not only have I been feeling depressed because of the church shooting last night, now I am faced with yet ANOTHER explosion in Russia. My heart is breaking for so many people.

818. RustlerPike - 9/17/1999 1:31:59 AM

I hereby present Israel's formal remonstrance at not being included in the East Timor story at all. We demand an Israeli angle on everything.

819. cmboyce - 9/17/1999 1:54:10 AM

Irv, does this "planned in February" story implicitly finger the Soharto brother-in-law (I forget his name) who was, or is, in exile?

820. alistairconnor - 9/17/1999 2:00:35 AM

The Aussie show I mentioned also went into detail as to how the Suharto clan carved up East Timor for their direct benefit - they own a huge percentage of the productive land, in particular the land with oil beneath it, etc - a Suharto grandson collects the excise on all alcohol imported into E Timor - and so on. They interviewed extensively the corruption expert from Newcastle University who Irv mentioned earlier, I forgot his name. There were also extensive interviews with pro-integration East Timorese.

I think that Australians are probably better informed about East Timor than anyone else in the world, and I include Indonesians and East Timorese.

821. cmboyce - 9/17/1999 2:00:52 AM

Cal, why on earth are you "sure everything will be fine"? There will surely be more of this--the Chechens have, I believed, opened an aggressive campaign to revive the Dagestan wars of the 19th century, doubtless aggrandizing Chechen territory at the same time--and the Russian social/political/economic situation is fragile at best... It seems easy to foresee disaster, Mafia governments bleeding the cities, separate warlords in different parts of the country, etc., like China in the '20s.

I will surely try to think good thoughts (the above was not a prediction, let alone a desire), and I hope you're right, but why the implied optimistic scenario? (You sound as certain dowagers of my acquaintance might if their neer-do-well but favorite nephew were jailed for embezzlement (g).)

822. CalGal - 9/17/1999 2:05:23 AM

Because I tend to worry about my friends, and then I make foolishly optimistic statements to compensate.

823. CalGal - 9/17/1999 2:06:18 AM

The correct phrase is, I believe, "whistling in the dark"?

824. Spudboy - 9/17/1999 2:17:19 AM

Irv: I'm glad you are well. Please keep the stories coming. I am sharing much of your info with my colleagues.

I'm curious: Any further assessment of the earlier information about Prabowo, Suharto's disgraced son-in-law? Is there any likelihood he might take advantage of a "people power" uprising to take control of the military?

At any rate, keep those cards and letters coming.

825. cmboyce - 9/17/1999 2:21:58 AM

CalGal: You have friends in Russia?

826. CalGal - 9/17/1999 2:24:44 AM

CM,

I just reread my last two posts and they look morbid. I was just doing the online equivalent of shrugging my shoulders. As in "Eh. Go figure. I worry."

827. pellenilsson - 9/17/1999 2:26:05 AM

Rustler

On another topic. I'm about to post another entry in the sub-thread. It should be up in half an hour or so. There is an implicit question to you there about Jews who once settled (or were settled) on the islands of Sao Tome and Principe.

828. CalGal - 9/17/1999 2:26:21 AM

CM,

Well, I posted it here because many of us know someone who is visiting Russia--he spoke of it, remember?

829. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/17/1999 8:22:44 AM

Marj:
I was going to post the same information you posted in 810, but you beat me to it.

In other news today:

• Indonesia has begun withdrawing troops from East Timor in preparation for the UN forces.
• The first UN troops will land Sunday, or Monday at the latest, and will consist of Sustralian, Thai and French troops. At least 15 nations will take part in the mission when it gets going full-scale.

Alistair:
I'd like to see the program you watched. It sounds very accurate and informative.

Socko:
Surely Indonesians can understand that a few incidents don't say anything about the entire Australian people or their government.

Why would the Indonesians be any better at avoiding rash generalizations than the Australians? The flag-burning incidents in Australia received a great deal of coverage here, and were not made to seem isolated incidents.

Wrt face, my comments yesterday were based on your misconception where you confused Indonesia's face on the world stage with internal problems.

...the Australians offer a few belated criticisms of its erstwhile chum -- and the Indoensians go ape-shit. What gives?

Well, the incidents aren't viewed as harmlessly here. There was a great deal of talk in Australia (before the UN forces were invited) by both the press and the government of a possible invasion of Indonesia. There were also numerous protest incidents against Indonesia in Austalia, all diligently reported in the Indonesian press. Perhaps the reporting was unnecessarily fueling a fire of nationalism, but the point is that Indonesians don't dismiss the incidents as you seem to. Of course the Indonesians are overreacting, but the situation is very real, and very dangerous.

[continued]

830. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/17/1999 8:25:43 AM

...Well, to some extent the two must be confused: a government without a military is a contradiction in terms.

Well, what we have here now is a military existing apart from and taking no orders from the government. It's a very volatile and dangerous situation.

Indonesia would prefer, say, the ethnically Chinese Singaporeans leading a peacekeeping mission?!? Really!?!

Right now, absolutely.

cm (819):
Irv, does this "planned in February" story implicitly finger the Soharto brother-in-law (I forget his name) who was, or is, in exile?

No, not really. The February meetings involved members of the military, which may have involved members of Kopassus loyal to Prabowo, but that was not the primary group involved. I'm sure more information will come out as to whose idea this was, and how high up it goes in the chain of command. Right now we just don't know.

Alistair:
They interviewed extensively the corruption expert from Newcastle University who Irv mentioned earlier, I forgot his name.

George Aditjondro, one of my heroes.

Spuds:
Any further assessment of the earlier information about Prabowo, Suharto's disgraced son-in-law? Is there any likelihood he might take advantage of a "people power" uprising to take control of the military?

A couple of days ago, the headline in the paper was "Prabowo denies Involvement in East Timor." Those of us who spent years dealing with news from the Suharto regime take this to mean "Prabowo Confirms Involvement in East Timor." The Suharto gang only denied something as an excuse to lie.

I don't think he'd have a prayer of taking advantage of a people power uprising, as he is the most despised man in Indonesia (or out of Indonesia, if he is indeed still in exile). He was the master of orchestrated uprisings, though, so you might see his hand at work again in the future.

831. RickNelson - 9/17/1999 8:31:27 AM

ALOR GAJAH: Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim's former family driver Azizan Abu Bakar was caught for allegedly committing khalwat (close proximity) with a 22-year-old student of a private college in Taman Pengkalan Indah here early yesterday.

This kind of crap really ticks me off. Adultary isn't the best, but it's not any of the Imam's damn business. They've gotta' get a life. Well anyway, seems the hapless driver of Anwar doesn't know when he's been or being watched.

832. DanDillon - 9/17/1999 8:49:25 AM

marj,
Have you ignored my request for the IHT?

833. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 9:31:22 AM

Nice of our old friend, Pseuder, to check in and say hello in virtually every frigging thread in the Mote except this one. Very coy indeed.

Dan,

Coming right up.

834. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 10:12:44 AM

Pseuder,

Please stop acting like a blushing schoolgirl and make your entrance here. I have some proposals for you. One, have you seen Pelle's Maputo Diary sub-thread linked on the right? Can I set up one for you? Kind of a place to detail your recent travels, which we all would like to hear about. Second, would you consider writing particularly extensively and in detail about Pakistan and the Kargil crisis? I. for one, would be extremely interested. This article may get you going. I seem to remember that you were in Pakistan for a lot of the time of that conflict, and your observations would be extremely welcome.

835. DanDillon - 9/17/1999 10:16:35 AM

Danke.

836. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 11:03:03 AM

Peace on the way in Algeria?

Anyone been following this story? AC, any comments?

837. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 11:06:21 AM

More on the story from The Independent.

"ALGERIA VOTED yesterday in a crucial referendum which its reformist President Abdelaziz Bouteflika hopes will bolster his authority and promote an end to the country's brutal seven year civil war which has left 100,000 dead.

Given the beguilingly simple question on the ballot paper - "Do you agree with the President's approach to restore peace and civil concord?" - there was little doubt that the answer would be a resounding "Yes".

More important was the turnout, whose size will determine just how large a vote of confidence his people, cowed and disillusioned by a savage civil war against Islamic guerrillas, are prepared to give President Bouteflika.

According to state media, some 30 per cent of the registered electorate voted in the first three hours polling stations were open. That was almost twice as many as had done so in April's Presidential election, which was tarred by the mass withdrawal of Mr Bouteflika's six main opponents in protest at alleged vote-rigging by the military.

Yesterday, was his chance not only to win approval of his policy of national reconciliation, including an amnesty for many Islamic insurgents, but also a personal mandate to press through change, if needs be against the wishes of the senior army commanders who have always held ultimate power in Algeria. Yesterday, President Bouteflika, who was a former foreign minister in the 1960s and 1970s under President Houari Boumedienne, signalled that he intended the referendum to be but a beginning.

"I solemnly pledge I will change things in Algeria from top to bottom," he said as he cast his vote in Algiers."

838. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 11:06:48 AM

"He pledged to use full constitutional powers which had never been exercised by his immediate Army-sanctioned predecessors, and vowed: "I will regain those powers completely, because they have not been practised in full in the past."

The most dramatic sign of his determination to set a new course for Algeria was the sacking last month of nearly half the country's provincial governors, on the grounds of incompetence and corruption.

Mr Bouteflika has also set up a committee to reform the judiciary, and sought to rebuild bridges with the outside world, not least the former colonial power, France.

Next week he will break new ground by attending the United Nations General Assembly in New York. Most important of all perhaps, he is now saying things long known but hitherto unmentionable.

"Drugs, black market trading, collusion by border officers, corruption, child beggars and immorality are everywhere," he said in his final campaign speech on Wednesday. "Algerians everywhere are frightened ... everything in the country is ill."

839. pellenilsson - 9/17/1999 11:12:53 AM

Who has demoted my sub-thread to rank below Diva's broth recipe? Who?

840. DanDillon - 9/17/1999 11:13:02 AM

I've been following the story very closely, having been a neighbor of Algeria for a few years. It seems as though no matter what happens with this latest mandate, the people will retain their tremendous distrust of the Algerian and French governments, the latter for never having seriously intervened to quell the bloodshed within the last seven odd years. And Bouteflika, having gotten what he wanted, must make absolutely sure he doesn't corrupt what he may create. After all, his remaining in office was contingent upon the passage of this peace plan. If he has no ulterior motive, such a contingency might raise a few eyebrows.

841. Dantheman - 9/17/1999 11:13:08 AM

Marjoribanks,
That would be nice if it goes through. Algeria's civil war presents an interesting conundrum in democracy: If you believe in democracy, you should be required to accept the results of any free and fair election, even if you do not like the parties elected. However, if you have reason to believe that the parties elected will turn anti-democratic and will never again hold a free and fair election (the argument made against the Islamist parties in Algeria), does this create a reason not to accept the results? I confess to being conflicted over this, and would like to hear others opinions.

842. ScottLoar - 9/17/1999 11:26:55 AM

Dantheman, if the mob willingly consigns itself to dictatorship then democracy has ironically worked; if gulled to it by design, then the mob must work itself free of dictatorship. So, should we save people from their own destruction even though it be against their will? I say yes, but sometimes, not always.

843. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 11:52:51 AM

Well, I'm not 100% about it either Dantheman, but I tend to believe that the constitution should be buffered so that it is the highest and incontrovertible authority, and then democracy should be allowed to run rampant even if the results are like what came out of the Algerian elections.

I

844. ScottLoar - 9/17/1999 11:55:44 AM

Marjoribanks, good point, one that I had missed completely but so necessary.

845. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 12:00:19 PM

Thanks Loar. Now I suppose I must make some comments about Russia so that the absurdly coquettish Peudoerasmus can get irate and comment about them in the Language thread.

Pseuder, stop playing footsie and post something here. I'll not post a single thing on India for a week if it'll make you happy.

846. pellenilsson - 9/17/1999 12:05:49 PM

marj

That's better (about the sub-thread, I mean, and assuming it was you who intervened).

You make an interesting point in #843 which I may comment on tomorrow unless the discussion has turned in a compeletely new direction. Perhaps it will become an all-Russia night.

But for now, I'm gone.

847. Dantheman - 9/17/1999 12:07:08 PM

Marjoribanks,
I am not sure I agree. Constitutions are often subverted in cases like this, often by appointing sympathetic judges to interpret the constitution in favor of "emergency powers" or some such. The specific example I was thinking about in suggesting the question was the Sandanistas in Nicaragua, although it appears applicable in Venezuela today.

848. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 12:11:43 PM

Dan the Man,

Yes, Peru and Venezuela are interesting conundrums, where the popularly elected President, with broad support, suspends or substantially alters the Constitution. It's hard to come with a failsafe recipe for democracy, but I think in principle the Constitution needs to be framed and supported in a way that in the end its word is unassailable, so that democracy must continue, with regular elections.

849. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 12:13:46 PM

Conspiracy Theories Surround Tycoon

By Anna Dolgov
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS



Whenever political dramas unfold in Russia, the media begin speculating that Boris Berezovsky, the country's most notorious tycoon, must be involved.

The Russian media are working overtime these days, and while evidence is scant, they claim Berezovsky's plotting and scheming has him indirectly linked to the fighting in southern Russia and the recent wave of terrorist bombings.

No one man could possibly do all the things Berezovsky has been accused of doing. The complicated conspiracy theories often have him behaving in all sorts of contradictory ways. And Berezovsky has been in the hospital for days receiving treatment for hepatitis.

But that hasn't slowed the speculation one bit.

Fed up with the reports, Berezovsky rose from his sickbed Thursday and held a news conference to denounce the stories as a "provocation'' by his opponents.

He angrily rejected speculation that he plotted with Kremlin insiders to stoke unrest in Russia that could be used as a pretext for a political crackdown.

"The situation we are dealing with today had been building up for a long time, and it peaked today,'' he said.

The Russian media have not accused Berezovsky of direct involvement in the spate of bombings in Russia. Instead, he is portrayed as a man with the money and connections to launch a complex intrigue.

850. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 12:14:18 PM

The media speculation suggests he was involved in a plot to provoke fighting between Islamic militants and government troops in the southern region of Dagestan - which then escalated and led to apparent retaliatory terrorist attacks in Moscow.

The supposed goal: to discredit President Boris Yeltsin's opponents and open the way for Yeltsin's own chosen successor, current Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, to take office, and keep a small circle of Kremlin aides in power after Yeltsin's term expires next summer.

"Why does Berezovsky need a war in Dagestan?'' the daily Moskovsky Komsomolets wrote. "Because with a change of power, he and his partners in crime will land in jail.''

The newspaper's editor, Pavel Gusev, said: "If you look at the chain of these bombings, their timing is rather interesting.

"We were waiting to see what would happen, because 'the family' wants to stay in power one way or another. What happened was Dagestan,'' he said on NTV television Wednesday night.

The militants in Dagestan crossed over from breakaway Chechnya, a region where Berezovsky acknowledges he has close contacts.

He served briefly as the deputy secretary of the Security Council, a post that frequently put him in touch with Chechen separatists.

His business holdings in oil also give him an interest in Chechnya's politics, because the republic is a key route for transporting oil.

851. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 12:18:35 PM

Conspiracy theories, beyond the surface coverage of Russia there are a million conspiracy theories buzzing back and forth and the recent allegations of massive multi-billion dollar money-laundering at the Bank of New York have unleashed many more. Is the underworld kingpin Mogilevich (?) responsible for siphoning off the majority of Western Aid sent over since the fall of the USSR? Is the President implicated? Is the President's daughter implicated?

One person here can shed a lot of light on this. Check for his scathing dismissal of these questions in another, quite different, thread. Possibly language.

852. cmboyce - 9/17/1999 12:21:52 PM

Unassailability is not to be had in this world. The demos must value their constitution sufficiently that they actively resist the assailants. Thus, a democracy is most vulnerable when young (hence, the Terror, the First Empire, the October Revolution, the purging of the Koumintang in the '20s, most of Nigeria's post-colonial governments, et al and et al and et al. Russia is at the moment vulnerable under this rubric (and doubtless others). I too look forward to hearing Pseudoerasmus on this and other Russian topics, including unpolitical ones.

For instance, Pseudoerasmus, I just read Derzu the Trapper last month, and I'm dying to know if your visit to the Russian Far East encompassed his turf (the coastal mountains north of Vladivostok and west to, and a little beyond, the Ussuri) and if it has been turned into a Mordor or is relatively unspoiled. Are any of the native tribes still extant in any meaningful sense? Etc.

853. cmboyce - 9/17/1999 12:22:58 PM

852's opener was in response to 848. I was overtaken.

854. pseudoerasmus - 9/17/1999 12:28:53 PM

Boyce, I was going to boycott this Hindoooo-hosted thread, but I'm shocked by your question in #852. Not only was I in Derzu Uzala country (Ussuriland) recently; not only did I go hiking in the Sikhote Alin mountains guided by an Udege, one of the indigenous people in the area; not only had I some observations about the alarming despoliation of forest engineered by Hyundai, but my best story this summer comes from this part of the trip. Have you been reading my mind?

855. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 12:32:49 PM

As I suspected, Pseuder was boycotting this thread precisely because I'm host. Dude, you're immediately welcome to co-host it. Anyway, thanks for ceasing the boycott.

Now, would you like that sub-thread? I can set it up for you immediately. You can keep your comments here if you like, but it may be nice to compile them in one place.

Welcome back, anyway.

856. pseudoerasmus - 9/17/1999 12:37:08 PM

So, Marzipranks, did you see my question on Trivandrum/Hyderabad in the travel thread of the Fray? Any answers? I just skimmed the archives, but I don't think I saw a reply to my question.

I got my research money! It's all of $2000, so instead of buying a ticket to Hindooooostan, I'm going to buy an around-the-world ticket for $1300 or so. This is a great saving, and the only restriction is that one can only go in one direction, one mustn't double back. So I'm thinking, if I can get reservations, Japan for two weeks in November, then Hindoooostan for probably three weeks, and then back to Moscow to join my fiancée for Christmas & New Year's.

Therefore I'm still keen on information about getting to Hyderabad cheaply yet quickly from Trivandrum. I think I've mentioned this to you, my late great-uncle (younger to my late grandfather but elder to the still-kicking lunatic great-uncle in Peshawar) served as commander of the "army" of the Nawab of Hyderabad during the two years between the end of WW2 and the occupation of the city by the Hindoooostan army. That's twice, by the way, that troops led by relatives of mine were forced to surrender ignonimiously to Hindoooostan goons: Hyderabad '47 and Bangladesh '71.

857. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 12:45:18 PM

Pseuder,

I think I mentioned that there were no direct flights linking the cities. But Trivandrum-Madras-Hyderabad or Trivandrum-Bangalore-Hyderabad are both possibilities. I'd do it by train, if you have a couple of days to waste. I'll give you the exact details you need tomorrow.

By the way, besides your work how much time will you have in India? And why Trivandrum and not lovely little Cochin?

858. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 12:46:41 PM

Oh, obviously you don't want to take the train if time is at a premium.

859. cmboyce - 9/17/1999 12:51:13 PM

Ah, PseudoE, I was afraid you'd say the forests were being levelled. Clear-cut, I presume. Does Moscow exercise any sort of control over this sort of thing? ("Haha", I suppose) Are there any local greens? And, please, let's get to some of these "best" stories. Trivandrum will still be there when you've lifted the burden of expectation and suspense from our weary cortices. Your trip has inspired many curiosities--as your new one is beginning to, I've no doubt--and we last saw you in Pakistan. There ought to be at least one war, one crossing of an astonishingly remote border, one encounter with a Siberian tiger, etc. etc. And then Moscow. (And Japan)

860. pseudoerasmus - 9/17/1999 12:51:26 PM

Because the research is on Kerala and Cochin is not the capital. Trivandrum is where all the economic research leads.

As for co-hosting, no thanks. I'm disappearing again from the Fray-Mote after today for about two weeks anyway, and when I return I'll be taking a look at Salon GabbleGawk's international folder.

861. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 12:57:14 PM

Well, in two weeks, I'll have poached the best contributors from that folder I hope.

Why don't we set up a little sub-thread right now. And you can fire off some stories. Let it be known that we will, as a group, be extremely disappointed if you don't part with at least a few anecdotes today.

Also, please do check in tomorrow, I'll give you the exact and detailed scoop of the Trivandrum-Hyderabad passage. By the way, the cheapest flight in to world to the Maldives also leaves from Trivandrum. Great for a weekend.

862. Raskolnikov - 9/17/1999 1:01:40 PM

Oh God. I am just imagining Psuedo let loose on Salon. The place is loaded with one-worlders, protectionists, anarchists, and pacifists. They think *I'm* rude.

863. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 1:18:47 PM

Rask,

That first week or so in Salon's International Issues folder was rather illuminating. One, we all looked like right-wingers, including myself. Two, we all appeared like apologists for the USA. Three, we appeared to be in concerted agreement, like a solid block. Quite interesting, all in all.

864. KuligintheHooligan - 9/17/1999 1:20:01 PM

marjoribanks,

This will be my first post for the "Namibian Diary." I thought what happened to me today would be an appropriate start for it.

***********

I was in downtown Windhoek today, the capital city of Namibia. Since Namibian independence in 1990 one of the primary issues for Namibians has been "land reform." All that basically means is take the land from the whites (Afrikaners and Germans, who stole the land in the first place so the argument goes) and give it to the rightful owners, the black Namibians.

SWAPO, the political party in power and the main opposition against the Apartheid regime (SWAPO=South West Africa People's Organization) made promises of such land reforms, but have realized that actually doing so is quite difficult to enact. For starters, Namibia barely produces enough food for its own people, and if the rains are bad in a given year, imports from South Africa are required. To simply take the land from people who know it and can produce from it, and give it to people that cannot do these things, would be unwise economically for the country, and potentially disasterous.

OK, today I am walking downtown and there is a protest march going through the streets. I moved to the front of the crowd gathered to watch it, one of the few white faces present at the moment. Some of the protesters marching saw me standing there and as they marched past, they started pointing at me and then waving "backhandedly" at me, as if to say, "Get out of our country whiteman." It was unnerving to say the least. I was tempted to say, "I'll give you all the land I own!" (I don't own any!) But I thought better about it!

865. KuligintheHooligan - 9/17/1999 1:23:01 PM

Greetings to PseudoErasmus!

866. pseudoerasmus - 9/17/1999 1:24:37 PM

Boyce #859

It's called the taiga, the vast belt of dense dark forest that stretches across sub-Arctic northern Eurasia from the Baltics to the Sea of Japan, at least twice the size of the continental USA. The Far-Eastern part of this Russian forest is made semi-tropical by the Pacific ocean.

Moscow certainly does exercise control over the clear-cutting of the taiga by the South Koreans and the Japanese. The central govt actually encourages it. For Moscow today is nothing more than a clearinghouse for the natural resources seized from the provinces. That is its only reason for being. It wouldn't have any revenue if he didn't sell natural resources abroad.

But let's get this straight. Huge swaths of the Russian taiga, and large chunks of Siberia overall, had been transformed into ecological hellholes during the Soviet era, long before today.

The clearcutting of the Far Eastern taiga has only just begun. The process is very visible along the coast across from the Sea of Japan, but it's far from too late. The forested mountains where I went hiking are gloriously wild and unspoilt.

As for Greens, it's my impression that ecological awareness in Russia is pretty low overall, but among those who are ecologically aware, many are ultra-nationalist-romantic types who think of Russia as "forged in the hearth of the forest". Anyway, the ecologically enlightened in Russia tend to give most of their attention to Lake Baikal, whose water is still potable.

867. pseudoerasmus - 9/17/1999 1:25:47 PM

Hooligan, check out #127 in the language thread.

868. ScottLoar - 9/17/1999 1:28:04 PM

TableTalk's International thread was more than disappointing, it was to me as a slap in the face on realizing that the crowd at The Fray offered the best and highest level of discourse on a variety of topics that I'd found. I went out expecting to run with lions; I lay with swine; I returned in sheepish humility.

869. pseudoerasmus - 9/17/1999 1:31:55 PM

I'm afraid I've run out of time, I must now go, so the stories must wait. But in the meanwhile, here is a map of my travels this summer, click to enlarge:

870. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 1:34:04 PM

Hooligan,

Please post it again in your sub-thread. It is available in the News column on the home page. I'd do it myelf but it would be better under your name, I think.

And thanks for taking on the project, I will ask several questions of you shortly, in that thread. BTW, the thread will be linked to this page too, in a bit, under sub-threads, when I figure out how the hell to do it.

871. KuligintheHooligan - 9/17/1999 1:37:44 PM

marjoribanks, I'm happy to do it. Just know, though, that I won't be able to do it EVERY day, but I will try to provide some meaty posts several times a week.

872. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 1:43:54 PM

That's fine, Hooligan. It will be a very nice feature and I'm sure all of us will read it with interest.

873. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 1:45:45 PM

Pseuder,

It was good to see you back in the fold. Next time, no coyness, just get your narrow butt in here and give us anecdotes to satisfy our interest.


(Now back to our regularly scheduled Hindustan programming)

874. Raskolnikov - 9/17/1999 1:58:14 PM

marj: yeah, that first week in International was a revelation. I imagine that was one of the first times in your life you have been accused of being a conservative.

875. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 2:09:22 PM

Conservative, sexist, judeophobe, apologist for America. All these epithets were thrown at me.

However, I think there are several people there who would be very very good additions to our group. There are two or three extremely articulate and well-read people from Eastern Europe, several interesting Brits and Aussies, etc. I doubt any of them will defect outright, but I'd like them to come here now and then at least. At least twenty of them to begin with.

876. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 3:32:48 PM

Pike,

If you still feel up to a sub-thread on Israel/Palestine I have one with your name on it.

The last one you ran was one of the best threads on the Fray, as I recall.

877. pseudoerasmus - 9/17/1999 5:15:15 PM

I tried to write an anecdote quickly, but I'm not a facile writer, I need to grope and deliberate for the right word more than most, it seems. This is either because I hold a high standard and am chronically dissatisfied with initial output, or because I simply lack the talent for the spontaneous generation of high-quality prose.

878. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 5:20:11 PM

Well, Pseuder, bust out some snippets then. Or let's talk food. Or women. Or women and food together.

879. pseudoerasmus - 9/17/1999 5:22:49 PM

All the same, I've made a list of some anecdote material from this summer.

• A traffic accident in Tehran
  
• A mob (sort of) in Mashad
  
• Zoroastrians in Yazd
  
• Standing still in total darkness in the middle of the desert outside Bam, at 4 in the morning.
  
• Heat Stroke at the Pak-Iran border
  
• the Hazara of Quetta
  
• the Brahuis of Quetta
  
• the Bolan Mail
  
• Marzipranks's bloody St Patrick's Cathedral in Karachi
  
• A McDonald's in Peshawar!
  
• The last of the Afghan refugee squatters get cleared out of my great-uncle's backyard
  
• Can you walk to China?
  
• An encounter with the Chinese border guards on the Karakorum Highway
  
• a dog/bear fight in Kashgar
  
• the "White Chinese" of Khotan
  
• A 40-hour bus ride through the Taklamakan
  desert
  
• The Tale of the Uighur and his Leaking Apricots
  
• the Tocharian Frescoes of Kuqa
  
• A harrowing train ride-cum-plane ride from Urumqi to Moscow via Almaty
  

880. pseudoerasmus - 9/17/1999 5:23:24 PM

• Sunbathing at a Moscow beach
  
• The Tale of Gypsies and a Militiaman
  
• A gentle mugging
  
• Have you ever tried to make daal in Moscow?
  
• Moscow's anti-Caucasian hysteria
  
• Afro-Russians?
  
• Miniskirts and Muscovite crotches
  
• A diatribe against Russian food
  
• A paean to Caucasian food
  
• A hideously ugly city above the Arctic Circle built by gulag labour
  
• Reindeer go wild on PE's golden elixir
  
• Tour of Kazan courtesy of an ex-convict
  
• The Trans-Siberian Railway (half a dozen anecdotes)
  
• the Dalai Lama in Russia?
  
• indentured servants from North Korea
  
• Serenity at Lake Baikal
  
• A Reverie on the Mongolian Steppe
  
• A public bathhouse in Ulanbaator (Diva, take note, you'd be interested)
  
• Russo-Koreans
  
• The Story of all Stories from the Russian Far East
  
• PE picks up where he left off last winter: a visit to the North Korean Consulate
  
• Kamchatka: Bears, volcanoes, and the new whoring getaway for the Japanese Salaryman
  

881. pseudoerasmus - 9/17/1999 5:24:11 PM

OK, I must now log off. See you all in two weeks or so.

882. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 5:26:04 PM

Wow. Those sound pretty damn intriguing. I am torn between total unabashed envy and extreme eagerness to hear more details. Sure you don't want to cover, say, the Karachi Cathedral story? You know I have a personal connection to that place, yet have never seen it or even a photograph.

883. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 5:26:50 PM

Ciao, if you really have to go.

884. Uzmakk - 9/17/1999 5:31:36 PM

One must work to lurk these days. Getting through the sheer volume of posts since the brief return of PseudoE takes some serious time.

885. pseudoerasmus - 9/17/1999 5:33:28 PM

Oh, yes, Marzipranks, forgot to put one on the list that you would be keen on:

Gombad-e-Kavus!

Sounds familiar? Yes, saw the bloody tower. Don't know why it so captivated Robert Byron.

886. stostosto - 9/17/1999 5:35:50 PM

Pseuder

Great seeing you!

Please, see to it that you check in real soon with some Russian info.

887. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 6:16:16 PM

Stostosto,

What is your favorite Danish newspaper link? I'll add it to the list on the right.

888. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 6:22:56 PM

More on the worsening Indonesia/Australia relationship from the Jakarta Post:

JAKARTA (JP): Indonesia might review its regional economic cooperation with the northern part of Australia if political relations between the two countries continue to worsen over the East Timor issue.

Ferdi Tanoni, chairman of a joint communication forum of local businessmen and their counterparts from northern Australia, said in Kupang on Friday that the termination of the regional cooperation would not affect Indonesia.

Indonesia and Australia established in 1996 an economic cooperation zone called Australia-Indonesia Development Area (AIDA), which covers eastern part of Indonesia and the northern part of Australia.

"If AIDA cooperation was revoked, we -- particularly the entrepreneurs in the eastern part of Indonesia -- would not be negatively affected," Ferdi was quoted by Antara as saying.

He said the two countries had never had any significant or concrete economic relationship anyway since the AIDA agreement was signed in 1997 in Ambon.

"Only that the Australian government sent some consuls to the Eastern part of Indonesia," he said.

To replace AIDA, Indonesia could form a new economic cooperation with countries under the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) should Indonesia's diplomatic relations with Australia end, according to Ferdi.

The intervention of the Australian government over the East Timor issue, he said, was way out of proportion and it could jeopardize the plan to form a sister-city arrangement between Kupang, East Nusa Tenggara and Palmerstone, northern Australia.

889. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 6:23:17 PM

Meanwhile, East Java's vice governor of economic and development cooperation, Mohammad Zuhdi, said the sister-province arrangement between East Java province and Western Australia had been temporarily suspended.

He said the suspension would not hurt East Java since trade between the two regions had so far been in Western Australia's favor.

In 1998, Western Australian exports to East Java stood at US$240 million while its imports from East Java totaled $171 million.

In a related development, the state government of Queensland, Australia, said on Friday that it had recalled its two trade officers from Jakarta and Semarang and would review whether it would maintain its sister-province relationship with the Indonesian province of Central Java, according to the Dow Jones Newswires.

The news agency said that in its review, the Queensland government would consider recommendations from the two recalled trade officers.

"The review will include whether the offices remain open, but more importantly, where our future relationship with Indonesia goes," a spokesman for Deputy Premier Jim Elderthe was quoted as saying.

890. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 6:47:11 PM

In the light of the above, I find the Aussie PM's statements reproduced below intolerable and irresponsible. Why the shit is he talking in the first place, and not the military commander responsible for the mission. It sounds as though he thinks this is UN-backed invasion not a peacekeeping mission.

From The Independent:

THE AUSTRALIAN government promised "massive" retaliation against any attacks on international troops bound for East Timor yesterday, amid signs that the Indonesian armed forces were beginning to withdraw from the territory.

Weapons, ammunition and computers were being loaded on to navy ships in the capital, Dili, yesterday, and the local commander of the Indonesian military (TNI) Major-General Kiki Syahnakri, said that 7,000 troops were in the process of being withdrawn from East Timor.

About 2,000 Australian, New Zealand and British troops have already gathered in Darwin, and are expected to fly into East Timor from Australia as early as tomorrow as the advance party of International Force East Timor (Interfet). The Australian Prime Minister, John Howard, warned that any attacks on the peace-keepers would escalate international condemnation of the TNI's campaign of violence.

"They would know that would provoke a massive reaction from other parts of the world," he said in Canberra yesterday. "If that were to occur, then that in turn would provoke a much stronger level of intervention and retaliation, including, I believe, stronger involvement by countries that are now giving important support but not massive support."

891. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 6:50:59 PM

The signals coming out of Indonesia were still mixed yesterday, and it is clear that large numbers of TNI troops and pro-Jakarta militias will still be on the ground when Interfet enters the territory to enforce last month's overwhelming vote for independence. "It is expected that tension will rise but we will take steps so that those things will not happen," Maj-Gen Syahnakri said. Today's planned visit to East Timor by Maj-Gen Peter Cosgrove, the Australian commander of Interfet, was abruptly cancelled without explanation last night.

Leandro Isaac, an East Timorese independence leader, in hiding in the territory, told Portuguese radio that TNI soldiers and their tame militias had attacked refugees near the town of Dare. He also said Dili was being mined "by the militias, the special forces and the TNI".

Militia leaders in West Timor promised violence against the international forces. "We East Timorese are thirsty for the blood of white people," said Eurico Guterres, leader of the Aitarak militia.

Indonesia was threatened by fresh political turmoil last night as bitter recriminations over President B J Habibie's decision to allow foreign forces into East Timor swelled in the capital, Jakarta. Opposition figures announced they were planning to set up a "leadership-in-waiting" that would be poised to seize control. The manoeuvring came amid growing sentiment that the rule of President Habibie was starting to crumble under pressure generated by the East Timor crisis as well as a fast-growing financial scandal.

892. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 6:51:19 PM

In another ominous development, the members of the outgoing lower house of parliament said they had summoned the President to its chamber on Monday to explain why he had buckled under outside pressure and announced his decision last weekend to allow the United Nations to send in the multinational force.

Rumours were circulating that several senior ministers might defect and join the opposition groups, who said they would meet next week to discuss establishing the shadow leadership. "The meeting is being planned and it will take place soon," confirmed a spokesman for the opposition Nation Awakening Party.

There is a growing belief that Mr Habibie may be forced by his own Golkar Party to relinquish his bid for re-election when members of the upper house convene next month. The chamber will have two main tasks at the session: picking a new president in November and endorsing the abandonment of East Timor, annexed by Indonesia in 1976. If a serious political crisis does take hold, that schedule of vital votes could be thrown in doubt. Among those reportedly positioning themselves to replace Mr Habibie as Golkar's presidential nominee, is the army chief, General Wiranto.

Jakarta, meanwhile, was again rocked yesterday by street demonstrations. Stones were hurled at police outside the parliament building when about 1,700 students marched to protest against a draft law that would give the military new powers to suppress unrest in the country.

President Habibie's difficulties are being compounded by almost daily revelations in the so-called Bank Bali scandal. The affair centres on allegations that officials at the bank paid about $70 million (pounds 43m) in illegal kick-backs to senior politicians for helping to recover loans extended to other banks shut down by the government. Among those accused of receiving the illicit funds are officials connected with Mr Habibie's re-election campaign.

893. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 6:52:38 PM

Irv,

Further details on the Bank Nali flap would be most appreciated. As well as comments on what seems to be a real recipe for disaster between the Aussies and Indonesia.

894. stostosto - 9/17/1999 6:56:59 PM

marj

I could give you some Danish links - but will anyone read them?

I should think it perhaps more relevant to have some German language links. Like Neue Zürcher Zeitung which (despite its Swissness) has a good reputation. Frankfurter Allgemeine is one of the often quoted German papers.

I also tried to find the the European on the web - but I am not sure if that's published anymore at all. Do you know it? And if it's published?

I don't read many papers myself other than Danish ones, and, occasionally Financial Times and International Herald Tribune. Both are excellent.

895. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 7:04:21 PM

Sto, pick the best German paper in your opinion and give me the link. I'll put it up. I don't have a clue myself.

The FT is a good idea. I'll add that one too.

896. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 7:06:15 PM

I never liked the European. And it's only a weekly. Though far more substantial, it reminds of something like the "USA Today of Europe." In case you don't know USA Today, it is a McNewspaper, though highly successful.

897. stostosto - 9/17/1999 7:38:01 PM

marj

I don't know if I am so keen on the European myself, but I am a little intrigued by the idea of a pan-European paper, even if it's only a weekly.

I have some links here:

Danish papers can be found here:

http://www.norsoc.com/papers_dk.htm

There are also links to Swedish and Norwegian papers.

A Danish English language weekly is the Copenhagen Post which can be found here:

http://www.cphpost.dk/

It has local Danish news for foreigners, but not very thoroughgoing. There are three stories on Danish relations to the Big Abroad this week: One about a political row about the Danish opt-out from the EU's Maastrict Treaty (we are most recalcitrant EUropeans in this country). One about the municipality of Copenhagen wanting to employ more people with differing ethnic backgrounds. Even - and here is the big debate issue this summer - if they are wearing head scarves. This is a traditional dress code for girls from some parts of the Islamic world. (But not more traditional, than that it has actually had a renaissance as a result of the increasing culture clash with the West).

898. stostosto - 9/17/1999 7:47:28 PM

(cont.)

And one about refugees that keep coming in, burdening the resources of this small countries, as the article has it. The number is expected to be 7,000 for 1999 as a whole. They are mostly coming from Ex-Yugoslavia and Somalia. Also many of the 3,000 Kosovars who came here under a special law are expected to apply for asylum. The civil servant in charge is wringing his hands (in the article).

---
Right.

Neue Zürcher Zeitung, the Swiss paper I mentioned earlier, is here:

http://www.nzz.ch/online/index.htm

The German Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung is here:

http://www.faz.de/

but it doesn't seem to carry any accessible online content.

Better, perhaps, or at least accessible is The Hamburger Abendblatt:

http://www.abendblatt.de

A rough-and-ready source for German news in English is here:

http://www.mathematik.uni-ulm.de/de-news/

And, finally, I'll give you the source to all these links, a formidable place which I didn't know of before this little searching endeavour of mine. I's called the paperboy.com and has links to many, many newspapers in many, many countries of the world, organized in a handy way:

http://www.thepaperboy.com/

899. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 7:47:37 PM

Thanks sto, I'll check those out. The first one sounds promising for our purposes and the second sounds entertaining.

Now, gang, I have started to invite people in here, and to not very discreetly advertize this space in TT. With some luck, some of the interesting and well-informed Intenational-thread regulars from that site will enjoy this space and our many compelling participants. And all of us will benefit and enjoy the interaction. Inshallah.

900. stostosto - 9/17/1999 7:50:40 PM

marj

You should also put the Libération in there. It's listed as a resource in the Mote thread list (courtesy of alistairconnor), and I have actually made good use of it, even though it is in French.

And how about having the map collection as a resource in the international thread?

901. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 7:59:02 PM

Well, I don't really want to poach from the front page thread list, though no doubt a number of those resources should be here. And AC said (to someone else) that it would be a pain to delete them from there. I am also wary of appearing to "hog" features of this site. People are already referring to this as my "fiefdom" and while it is, and I think of it that way, I don't want anyone to know. So keep it to yourself, okay.

On the other hand, I've already got two links in common with that list so maybe I'll just go ahead and add a bunch more. Tomorrow. I'm busy unsubtly spreading this URL in TT.

902. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 8:00:45 PM

Stostosto, I'd appreciate any links you submit here for inclusion. I want good ones, to make the "library" something really useful. All contributions to this task would be very welcome indeed.

903. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 8:02:55 PM

Sto,

Another very good newspaper source is pppp.net. Look for the part titled "really useful links" or something. They are super up-to-date with newspaper links to every country that has them. Maybe I'll link to that site.

Thank you very much for the URL's.

904. Angel-Five - 9/17/1999 8:15:42 PM

I actually think that this link belongs here because it deals with international interactions.

905. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 8:19:36 PM

ATTENTION ALL LURKERS.

I'm optimistically assuming there are several of you. Please make your presence felt by knocking on this table three times, or by summoning up whirling winds, or by dimming the lights.

You are among friends. You can feel at home here. Flip open one of our "house" newspapers for the latest breaking information. Bother stostosto about being a Great Dane. Browse through the Maputo Diary. Submit your own newspaper selection, it will be linked as well. This is a good place. Your intermittent flittings through the ether can cease now, you may rest at ease.

906. RickNelson - 9/17/1999 8:20:42 PM

Inshallah, Marj.

907. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 8:23:33 PM

That's a good, if strange, article Res. I read it earlier today.

908. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 8:24:29 PM

Shukran, Rick. Terimah Kasi.

909. Angel-Five - 9/17/1999 8:26:27 PM

(best Texas Senator voice)

If Ainglish was good enuff fer Jaysus Chraist, it shood be good enuff fer yew.

910. RickNelson - 9/17/1999 8:32:41 PM

Sama sama tuan.

911. CalGal - 9/17/1999 8:38:09 PM

Actually, I posted a request that thread hosts move links from the front page to here. I'll leave the front page for basic references (maybe a dictionary, a clock, things like that). Everything on the front page is currently hardcoded--it was a precursor to the links table.

Just put them on your page, leave a note in technical as to which ones you nabbed.

912. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 8:41:16 PM

Cool. I'm taking Liberation, Dawn, the map site, and if I take any others I'll put the names in Technical.

913. CalGal - 9/17/1999 8:43:30 PM

Oh, the map site I might leave on the front page as well--forgot about it. But that's one that works fine as a dupe, so have at it.

914. Angel-Five - 9/17/1999 8:50:01 PM

If you can read The Guardian Online and go to Breaking News and go through the free, painless registry process to see the article. It's on the announcement that the FBI and the Russians are going to join forces with respect to Russian money-laundering and terrorism.

The american Mob has a name. Does the Russian mob have one? I've hear of Kombinat but I'm not sure if that's entirely fictional.

915. Angel-Five - 9/17/1999 8:50:50 PM

If you can read this link, good. If not, go to The Guardian Online and go to Breaking News and go through the free, painless registry process to see the article. It's on the announcement that the FBI and the Russians are going to join forces with respect to Russian money-laundering and terrorism.

The american Mob has a name. Does the Russian mob have one? I've hear of Kombinat but I'm not sure if that's entirely fictional.

916. ChristinO - 9/17/1999 8:52:59 PM

Is The Guardian the same paper as The Manchester Guardian?

917. marjoribanks - 9/17/1999 8:54:29 PM

Interesting, A5. But Clinton sounds like a goddam wind-up doll. I mean, it's a canned statement. From a can which has been on the shelf for a really long time.

918. Angel-Five - 9/17/1999 8:54:46 PM

Yup.

919. IrvingSnodgrass - 9/17/1999 8:55:46 PM

Marj:
You have a migrating "h" in "Terima Kasih." But you get a gold star for trying!

I've considered posting about the Bank Bali scandal, but I'm afraid it would not be interesting to most around here, who may be getting a bit overloaded on Indonesian news.

A simple recap (probably enough for most):

The Bank Bali scandal is a massive government corruption scandal, involving large numbers of senior officials, which is unique in only one way: it has been reported on extensively. Massive