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7561. alistairconnor - 7/3/2008 1:00:14 PM

The "smart" thing has only one useful function : easy to park (often perpendicular to the curb in a too-small space)

Need cars that size, but lighter. And all-electric. Real soon.

7562. robertjayb - 7/3/2008 8:34:37 PM

Should have known the coloreds were up to something...

LUBBOCK -- A slice of cool, fresh watermelon is a juicy way to top off a Fourth of July cookout and one that researchers say could keep fireworks going long into the night.

Watermelons contain an ingredient called citrulline that can trigger production of a compound that helps relax the body's blood vessels, similar to what happens when a man takes Viagra, said scientists in Texas, one of the nation's top producers of the seedless variety.

Found in the flesh and rind of watermelons, citrulline reacts with the body's enzymes when consumed and is changed into arginine, an amino acid that benefits the heart, and the circulatory and immune systems.


I'm familiar with the vitamin P effect, but not the other.

7563. alistairConnor - 7/4/2008 1:53:59 AM

Hey Con...

Remember our Peak Oil bet? I bet that 2005 or 2006 would see the historic peak of oil production.

These past few months, I was pretty sure I'd lost, that 2007 would beat both. I've been waiting for BP, our agreed reference, to publish their annual survey, so that I could pay out the 66 euros (that's $100 to you).

And guess what...

I haven't lost yet...

Turns out that world oil production was down 0.2% last year.

We'll see about 2008.


Thousand barrels a day

2003 77031
2004 80326
2005 81255
2006 81659
2007 81533
2008...?

7564. alistairConnor - 7/4/2008 2:02:09 AM

And believe it or not... I found a sucker to take the following bet :

I wager that a barrel of oil, in inflation-adjusted terms, will cost less than $140 by July 2013. Just to be clear, that's in U.S. dollars.

As for the Euro, I bet that, by July 2013, one U.S. dollar will buy more than 0.65 of a Euro.


We upped the bet to 500 euros. The sucker's name is Pincher Martin.

7565. jexster - 7/4/2008 2:04:20 AM

By 2013, we'll either all be dead or bowing 5 times a day to Mecca

7566. alistairConnor - 7/4/2008 2:12:15 AM

Well, I'll take dirhams too.

7567. concerned - 7/4/2008 4:53:53 AM

rejexst -

Want to bet on that?

7568. concerned - 7/4/2008 5:00:12 AM

Re. 7563 -

I have seen a projection that oil production is expected to increase until about 2013.

7569. alistairconnor - 7/4/2008 8:52:41 AM

Con :

And who's the projectionist? I'd they predicted an increase from 2006 to 2007 too.


But, on balance, you're probably right. I'll probably lose the bet this time next year.

Unless there are a couple of sizable hurricanes in the gulf of Mexico.

Or unless the rebels in Nigeria take out a couple of offshore platforms.

Or unless a couple of big oil projects fail to come online on schedule.

In which case, the bet will be pushed back another year.

Or, of course, unless little W and his uncle Dick get that Iran war they want so badly. In that case, 2006 is certain to be the all-time peak. And Bush will have a real legacy.

7570. alistairconnor - 7/4/2008 9:18:56 AM


This is as good a prediction as any.


It's done by adding all known "megaprojects" (major oil developments) to existing production, then discounting the total by a global decline rate of 4.5% per year (the production rates of oil wells start declining almost as soon as they are commissioned). It predicts the peak in about 2015.

But this decline rate is now generally considered rather optimistic. Here's what it looks like if the decline rate is assumed to be 8% :



Peak in 2010.

And in both cases, projects are assumed to come on line at the date and production level advertised by their operators. However, reality is different : in particular, the Caspian fields are not performing as advertised, the biggest of them will be several years late.

It's astonishing how quickly the industry "experts" have changed their tune. In only a few months, the forecasters have abandoned their fantasy projections of oil supply expanding to meet demand for decades to come... Now they are practically parroting the positions of the peak oil crowd.

7571. jexster - 7/5/2008 1:23:52 PM

When the King of Saudi Arabia talks about oil, we should listen

7572. wonkers2 - 7/5/2008 5:59:08 PM

Good info, Alistair. Not encouraging.

7573. jexster - 7/5/2008 10:48:18 PM

Go tell mama


7574. jexster - 7/6/2008 7:40:02 PM

From time to time I go living in the past with my old friend Laura, now with Chevron.

Invariably, we meet at "we told you so thirty years ago"

And so Jimmy Carter did
There's nothing being debated today that we didn't thrash out 3 decades ago


American Energy Policy, Asleep at the Spigot

7575. thoughtful - 7/7/2008 6:29:36 PM

Who was it who said, the only thing new in this world is the history you don't know...

7576. concerned - 7/7/2008 9:38:45 PM

Re. 7574 -

President Peanut Brain was claiming peak oil before 1990.

He is an idiot.

7577. concerned - 7/7/2008 10:01:04 PM

Re. 7574 -

And what were you 'telling us' about nuclear power 30 years ago?

Oh, yeah. That's a big reason why we're in such an energy bind now.

7578. concerned - 7/7/2008 10:06:02 PM

The Left Wing way: Claim that there's a problem, block the best solutions for as long as possible, then try to put us on a guilt trip about their caving at the last second.

7579. jexster - 7/9/2008 1:41:54 AM

The Pickens Plan

7580. jexster - 7/12/2008 5:35:03 PM

ABOARD THE PAPAL PLANE - Pope Benedict XVI said Saturday he wants to wake up consciences on climate change during his pilgrimage in Australia.


Concerned's immortal soul is in peril

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